Do we have a unique Singaporean identity? 18 March 2012
http://sg.news.yahoo.com/common-s%E2%80%99pore-identity-has-yet-to-develop--former-president-nathan.html
Former President of Singapore S.R Nathan does not think so.
In an inaugural Social Sciences Conference organised by the Singapore Management University (SMU) School of Social Sciences, Nathan said that it would take “one or two generations” before a common culture emerged.
Nathan was responding to River Valley High student Cheryl Chow, who asked about the presence of a Singaporean culture and what could be done to maintain it during the question-and-answer session.
“Do we have a Singaporean culture?” the 87-year-old quipped, drawing laughter from the 300-strong audience of students from junior colleges and polytechnics.
He said that Singaporeans face a common problem of identifying themselves when overseas.
“We have to say ‘yes I’m Chinese but I’m Singaporean, yes I’m Indian but I’m Singaporean, yes I’m Malay but I’m Singaporean.' These things override us. And it will take a long time for this Singaporean identity, this unique Singaporean identity to develop,” he added.
Some students present at the event echoed his view that there is an absence of a common Singapore identity, although their reasons differed from the former president’s.
Said 17-year-old Chow, who posed the question of Singapore identity: “I feel that there’s always this problem of Singapore identity…As globalization is ongoing there’s this sense of loss of the Singaporean spirit.”
According to Chow, the “loss in Singaporean spirit” is due to the attitude of youths nowadays. “When we talk about the old guard of PAP, there’s this desire to improve. And nowadays, I realize that teenagers are just really complacent and it’s all about social media,” she said.
Chow added that another reason for the lack of a common Singapore identity may also be because teenagers are more exposed to “a lot more cultures other than the four main races of Singapore”, citing the American culture as an example.
Similarly, Victoria Junior College student Ling Mei Ying said that the Singapore culture is still being developed.
Said the 17-year-old: “Currently our mindset is still very traditional because of the previous generation. That’s why our generation doesn’t really like the way our mindset is. We feel that it’s very backward and we don’t really like it.”
However, students like 15–year-old Hoo Zhong Han disagreed.
Said the student from Raffles Institution (RI): “I think its [Singaporean culture] definitely there. It’s just that as a young nation we haven’t really managed to create one that is very salient in the global community.”
Hoo added that the problem is that the Singaporean identity is “not visible enough” due to its multi-racial society. “We have different races, different cultures at the same time. So there’s a gap between different cultures, and there needs to be more effort until there’s a point in time where we can actually say ‘that’s a Singaporean culture’. When you say ‘Singaporean culture’, you don’t distinctively think of Malays, Chinese or Indians but you just think of everything as one culture,” he said.
Others like Tampines Junior College student Bryan Goh felt that Singapore has a strong culture. Said the 18-year-old: “It’s [Singapore spirit] pretty strong. You can really feel the Singapore spirit during national days. It’s the togetherness, and despite the diverse cultures there’s still just one culture, one identity.”
Goh added that Singlish is a common feature of the Singaporean identity. “You only hear it in Singapore and when you go to other parts of the world, you immediately recognize a Singaporean by the way he speaks and his accent. And we can recognise a Singaporean from the way he behaves.”
The speech and forum discussion by the former sixth president of Singapore, who made way for Tony Tan last September, was followed by a series of thought seminars conducted by the faculty of the School of Social Sciences...
Sunday, March 18, 2012
Music and the mafia
17 March 2012 Last updated at 00:31 GMT Share this pageEmail Print Share this page
The music accused of glorifying Naples gangsters By Alan Johnston
BBC News, Naples
It is a music video of the darkest kind. Set to a hammering beat, the song tells the story of an execution by the Camorra, as the mafia is known in the Italian city of Naples.
But there is no sympathy for the victim. Just the opposite.
The singer praises the Camorra boss who orders the killing of a "traitor".
The video shows the gangster giving the hitman his instructions, telling him who his target will be.
Then we see the assassin handing his horrified victim a note with his name on it. His Camorra death warrant.
Meanwhile the lyrics say of the boss, "It's not true that he's evil". "We have to respect him" goes the song as the hitman pulls out his pistol.
Clan Chief is sung by Nello Liberti in the Neapolitan dialect, in what is called the neo-melodic style. It is a genre of music born of the city's many tough neighbourhoods.
But there has always been concern that the neo-melodic world is too close to the Camorra, that some artists glorify the gangsters.
And prosecutors in Naples are now investigating Nello Liberti.
They have been reported as saying that his song justifies the killing of anyone who betrays the Camorra, and the singer is being accused of incitement to commit a crime.
The neo-melodic phenomenon has grown over the past 20 years.
It long ago built up a big following in and around Naples but it is increasingly popular beyond its southern heartland.
profitable recording and production industry has developed in which the Camorra is believed to be heavily involved.
And as the music becomes more influential, there would seem to be all the more need to counter its links with the underworld.
"It's a cultural battle, a phenomenon that worries us and that we are investigating," says Rosario Cantelmo, an anti-mafia prosecutor in Naples.
Given the extent to which the Camorra has a grip in the city's suburbs, it is perhaps inevitable that gangsterism might sometimes feature in the music emerging from those same streets.
But a local investigative journalist, Amalia de Simone, says that while there would be nothing wrong with reflecting some of the reality of life in Naples, going a step further and glamorising the killers has serious social consequences.
"They become very negative examples for young people who live in those areas," she says.
"When they listen to this music they think of the Camorra boss as a fascinating, cool character, an example to follow. And this is absolutely unacceptable and shameful."
'Only love songs'
But it would be completely wrong to think of the entire neo-melodic scene as being fixated by the Camorra.
Songs that openly praise mafia figures are very much confined to the fringes.
The sentiments behind the vast majority of the genre are the stuff of pop everywhere: teenage heartache, love and betrayal.
Many moody singers are guilty of nothing more than a certain kitchness.
Rosario Miraggio, one of the young rising stars, is hugely in demand at times, singing at weddings and baptisms and parties.
Sometimes he does several gigs a night.
"I only sing love songs," he says. "I prefer to avoid the social problems of the city."
Rosario says his audience of mostly teenagers, many of them girls, is not remotely interested in being sung to about the difficulties that confront the city.
Continue reading the main story
“
Start Quote
if you are aware that a big part of your market as an artist comes from that money, that is money stained with blood.”
End Quote
Luca Caiazzo
Singer
Instead he provides a little relief from all that, a chance to escape into his music.
And he takes the view that given the nature of life in Naples it is inevitable the city's performers might sometimes rub shoulders with its gangsters.
"We are just singers," he says. "We don't ask for the criminal record of the people we perform for.
"I can sing at the party of a worker, or the mayor, or of any other people. We're in Naples. it happens."
But another very different type of singer, Luca Caiazzo, takes issue with this sort of argument.
He is from the Neapolitan hip-hop scene. And when he performs under his stage name, Lucariello, he often chooses to address the city's social issues.
"If you listen to all the lyrics of neo-melodic music, you won't even find one song that speaks badly or in a critical way of the Camorra," he says.
"Yes, no one asks for the criminal record of the people you're performing for.
"But if you are aware that a big part of your market as an artist comes from that money, that is money stained with blood.
"I would ask myself some questions, you know, when you're singing at the wedding of a mafia boss or his son."
The music accused of glorifying Naples gangsters By Alan Johnston
BBC News, Naples
It is a music video of the darkest kind. Set to a hammering beat, the song tells the story of an execution by the Camorra, as the mafia is known in the Italian city of Naples.
But there is no sympathy for the victim. Just the opposite.
The singer praises the Camorra boss who orders the killing of a "traitor".
The video shows the gangster giving the hitman his instructions, telling him who his target will be.
Then we see the assassin handing his horrified victim a note with his name on it. His Camorra death warrant.
Meanwhile the lyrics say of the boss, "It's not true that he's evil". "We have to respect him" goes the song as the hitman pulls out his pistol.
Clan Chief is sung by Nello Liberti in the Neapolitan dialect, in what is called the neo-melodic style. It is a genre of music born of the city's many tough neighbourhoods.
But there has always been concern that the neo-melodic world is too close to the Camorra, that some artists glorify the gangsters.
And prosecutors in Naples are now investigating Nello Liberti.
They have been reported as saying that his song justifies the killing of anyone who betrays the Camorra, and the singer is being accused of incitement to commit a crime.
The neo-melodic phenomenon has grown over the past 20 years.
It long ago built up a big following in and around Naples but it is increasingly popular beyond its southern heartland.
profitable recording and production industry has developed in which the Camorra is believed to be heavily involved.
And as the music becomes more influential, there would seem to be all the more need to counter its links with the underworld.
"It's a cultural battle, a phenomenon that worries us and that we are investigating," says Rosario Cantelmo, an anti-mafia prosecutor in Naples.
Given the extent to which the Camorra has a grip in the city's suburbs, it is perhaps inevitable that gangsterism might sometimes feature in the music emerging from those same streets.
But a local investigative journalist, Amalia de Simone, says that while there would be nothing wrong with reflecting some of the reality of life in Naples, going a step further and glamorising the killers has serious social consequences.
"They become very negative examples for young people who live in those areas," she says.
"When they listen to this music they think of the Camorra boss as a fascinating, cool character, an example to follow. And this is absolutely unacceptable and shameful."
'Only love songs'
But it would be completely wrong to think of the entire neo-melodic scene as being fixated by the Camorra.
Songs that openly praise mafia figures are very much confined to the fringes.
The sentiments behind the vast majority of the genre are the stuff of pop everywhere: teenage heartache, love and betrayal.
Many moody singers are guilty of nothing more than a certain kitchness.
Rosario Miraggio, one of the young rising stars, is hugely in demand at times, singing at weddings and baptisms and parties.
Sometimes he does several gigs a night.
"I only sing love songs," he says. "I prefer to avoid the social problems of the city."
Rosario says his audience of mostly teenagers, many of them girls, is not remotely interested in being sung to about the difficulties that confront the city.
Continue reading the main story
“
Start Quote
if you are aware that a big part of your market as an artist comes from that money, that is money stained with blood.”
End Quote
Luca Caiazzo
Singer
Instead he provides a little relief from all that, a chance to escape into his music.
And he takes the view that given the nature of life in Naples it is inevitable the city's performers might sometimes rub shoulders with its gangsters.
"We are just singers," he says. "We don't ask for the criminal record of the people we perform for.
"I can sing at the party of a worker, or the mayor, or of any other people. We're in Naples. it happens."
But another very different type of singer, Luca Caiazzo, takes issue with this sort of argument.
He is from the Neapolitan hip-hop scene. And when he performs under his stage name, Lucariello, he often chooses to address the city's social issues.
"If you listen to all the lyrics of neo-melodic music, you won't even find one song that speaks badly or in a critical way of the Camorra," he says.
"Yes, no one asks for the criminal record of the people you're performing for.
"But if you are aware that a big part of your market as an artist comes from that money, that is money stained with blood.
"I would ask myself some questions, you know, when you're singing at the wedding of a mafia boss or his son."
Climate Change and using Technology to Reverse it
More sulphur trails from the stratosphere
Tiny aerosol particles in the atmosphere are perhaps the second most important way - after greenhouse gas emissions - in which human activities are changing the Earth's climate.
But changing it how?
The last major Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) report in 2007 concluded that aerosols "remain the dominant uncertainty in radiative forcing" - partially because of the direct effects the particles have, such as reflecting and scattering the Sun's energy, and partly because they can affect cloud formation.
Since that report was compiled, researchers have gone deeper into the known unknowns of aerosols - one of the main aims being to build a picture of how they behave naturally, in order that any man-made perturbation can be more accurately assessed.
The satellite era has made things easier, with instruments on board orbiting platforms such as Calipso deploying lidars and other instruments capable of sensing how much material is present at what kinds of altitudes.
But still, obtaining a global picture is not easy - and to make things worse, observations have begun in earnest during the very period in which human activities are changing the atmosphere's aerosol load.
But scientific groups are on the case.
A couple of weeks ago, we had some insights into how increased coal-burning - notably from China - could be pumping the stuff into the atmosphere so quickly as to ameliorate the temperature rise from greenhouse gas emissions.
Last week, a different research group unveiled new findings on the impact of volcanic eruptions, which pump vast amounts of particles into the air, some rising as far as the stratosphere.
The conclusion was that volcanoes may have a greater cooling effect than previously recognised.
And this week, in Science, comes a fresh analysis of aerosols in the stratosphere itself, and their impact on global temperatures.
The top line message is that the increase in concentrations over the "noughties" has partially masked temperature rise - similar to the conclusion of the research released two weeks ago, but using a radically different line of inquiry.
And climate models, the researchers say, mostly understate the impact of aerosols in the stratosphere, so may be projecting that temperatures will rise faster than they actually are.
Volcanoes have massive impacts on the stratospheric load of these tiny sulphate particles. But they're fairly short-term, producing stark spikes that decay away after a few years.
But the background aerosol concentration is also changing, the researchers find - for reasons that are not immediately obvious.
When I called one of the researchers, Ells Dutton from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (Noaa), he described the top line message as "relatively mild".
"When you account for this additional aerosol that's not been accounted for previously, that weakens the overall net forcing that existed over the 2000s.
"So the positive forcing was partially negated by this negative forcing, so you'd expect warming to have been less."
But there are also things it doesn't tell us.
The sources could be entirely natural; "but if you then ask whether some of the Chinese stuff is getting into the stratosphere, it could be - we can't sort that out."
Another question is this; if all or most of the sources are natural, what are those sources, besides vulcanism?
So, lots more to research - and one potential implication outside the realm of understanding climate change.
The cheapest of all geo-engineering techniques yet conceived involves putting multiple tonnes of this stuff into the stratosphere, where it would reflect sunlight back into space, cooling the Earth's surface.
Controversial, of course; but a number of eminent people such as UK renewable energy pioneer Stephen Salter suggest that research should begin in earnest, because they don't believe our society is going to curb greenhouse gas emissions at anything like the rate needed to slow global warming.
Clearly, if this is ever to be attempted, understanding how the particles will behave in the upper atmosphere would be of paramount importance.
David Keith from the University of Calgary, one of the leading lights in the field, told me this: "I don't see any strong implications for solar geo-engineering, [but] it may help to dispel naive assumptions that solar geo-engineering would be an all or nothing affair.
"In fact, if it ever did make sense to try it, it would make sense to try incremental additions of sulphur coupled with an intense observation campaign that looked for problems."
It's interesting to note by comparison how another geo-engineering option - iron fertilisation of the oceans - has been investigated in practice.
The mass of evidence generated over more than a decade of experimentation has told researchers a lot about the various things that are likely to determine how well it works - and the biggest trial of all, the German Lohafex project, suggested it might not work at all.
By comparison, our knowledge about sulphate aerosol injection is tiny.
The title of the Science paper - The Persistently Variable "Background" Stratospheric Aerosol Layer and Global Climate Change - is well-chosen in that it indicates both that significant research has been done, and that the findings it's produced are somewhat frustrating - and honestly given as such.
Earth experiment could buy precious time
As the UK's Royal Society prepares to publish its conclusions on whether geo-engineering can help combat climate change, physicist Alan Gadian argues that geo-engineering techniques, in particular cloud whitening, must be properly tested - and soon.
Planet Earth has become a huge science experiment, and the consequences will affect all of us.
"Global warming poses a greater threat than world terrorism and agreement must be reached within two years to mitigate global warming and minimise environmental catastrophe," Sir David King, the UK's chief scientist, wrote in 2007.
On 8 July this year, the G8 proposed a 50% reduction of global emissions of carbon dioxide by 2050. It remains to be seen whether this will be fast enough.
And carbon dioxide is not the only problem.
Methane is a greenhouse gas 21 times more potent, and the wastelands of Siberia are now releasing fountains of methane as the permafrost melts, adding to the greenhouse warming effect.
So how can geo-engineering help?
I define geo-engineering as man-made environmental change; and I would include in its definition the unprecedented burning of fossil fuels that has pumped large quantities of carbon dioxide into the atmosphere, and the massive increase in the number of farm animals with consequential methane production.
Changes in agriculture, in Africa for example, have resulted in the felling of large areas of forest and have removed the water storage capacity of the land. This has led to the rapid advance of the desert in the Sahel region.
The planet has been and is warming further. This will also lead to significant changes in precipitation, and flooding will remove prime agriculturally productive land.
Whiter clouds
In a 1990 paper in the journal Nature, John Latham, a scientist at the National Center for Atmospheric Research in Colorado, US, suggested that increasing the number of droplets in maritime layer clouds (stratocumulus) could significantly increase their reflectance.
These clouds cover a third of the ocean.
The water droplets in clouds reflect solar radiation back to space. And the numbers of droplets they contain are largely controlled by the number of cloud condensation nuclei (CCN), such as specks of dust.
Many of these nuclei are produced over the land. Land-locked clouds therefore contain many hundreds of cloud droplets per cubic centimetre, whilst clouds that form over the sea contain substantially fewer.
Generally, the more droplets that are present in a cloud, the smaller they are.
For a given mass of water in a cloud, clouds with smaller droplets tend to be whiter. This was illustrated by the Edinburgh University scientist Stephen Salter's example of glass beads in a jar - the smaller the beads, the whiter they appear.
So the proposal is to inject a fine spray of sea salt from the ocean surface into the clouds; to artificially increase the number of drops, reduce their size and increase the reflectance of the clouds, making them whiter.
This one-off increase in reflectance - and the resulting cooling - could buy us precious time; maybe as much as 25 years.
But we need numerical models and field experiments to determine the ideal size of the sea-salt nuclei.
Results from climate models show that a modest increase of nuclei in marine stratocumulus clouds could produce the desired cooling.
Further research is required, but preliminary results suggest this could compensate for up to a doubling of atmospheric carbon dioxide from pre-industrial levels.
Initial results suggest that the biggest cooling would occur in the polar regions, which is consistent with theory, and is exactly the place where cooling is most needed.
The big advantages of this scheme are that it uses sea water spray, a naturally occurring substance, and that it can be turned off immediately if there are any undesirable consequences.
The technology
Professor Salter has even suggested a design for a fleet of about 2000 of wind-powered yachts, which incorporate a sophisticated spray mechanism that is now being developed.
My colleagues and I propose to carry out detailed research of the scheme and provide an answer on its viability within five years.
There are four elements to this research:
•cloud physics modelling; there are many questions about the optimal size of sea-salt CCN and how the clouds will respond to their increased numbers
•further climate modelling
•developing and building Stephen Salter's test yachts
•a field experiment; a limited-area field experiment is needed in a region of stratocumulus clouds, and we already have advanced-stage plans with potential collaborators in the US
The cost
Initial estimates suggest that we could complete the research for approximately £6m ($10m), and produce a result that will determine if the proposed scheme is viable or not.
The research needs to be carried out, otherwise we will not know, five to 10 years from now, if we could have done anything to slow down the warming and the irreversible change in the Earth system.
It is an insignificant sum compared to the cost of doing nothing.
As James Lovelock states: "There have been seven disasters since humans came on the Earth, very similar to the one that's just about to happen."
He argues that billions of people are likely to die in the ensuing famine. "Enjoy life while you can.
"Because if you're lucky it's going to be 20 years before it hits the fan".
We can do something to provide a breathing space. That something should start now.
Dr Alan Gadian is a senior research lecturer in the School of Earth and the Environment at the University of Leeds, UK
Dr Gadian would like to extend his thanks to collaborators Alan Blyth, John Latham and Stephen Salter
The Green Room is a series of opinion articles on environmental topics running weekly on the BBC News website
Climate 'technical fix' may yield warming, not cooling
By Richard Black
Environment correspondent, BBC News, Vienna
Whitening clouds by spraying them with seawater, proposed as a "technical fix" for climate change, could do more harm than good, according to research.
Whiter clouds reflect more solar energy back into space, cooling the Earth.
But a study presented at the European Geosciences Union meeting found that using water droplets of the wrong size would lead to warming, not cooling.
One of the theory's scientific fathers said it should be possible to make sure droplets were the correct size.
Cloud whitening was originally proposed back in 1990 by John Latham, now of the University Corporation for Atmospheric Research in Boulder, US.
It has since been developed by a number of other researchers including University of Edinburgh wave energy pioneer Stephen Salter, joining a number of other "geoengineering" techniques that would attempt either to reduce solar radiation reaching earth or absorb carbon dioxide from the air.
One version envisages specially designed ships, powered by wind, operating in areas of the ocean where reflective stratocumulus clouds are scarce.
The ships would continually spray fine jets of seawater droplets into the sky, where tiny salt crystals would act as nuclei around which water vapour would condense, producing clouds or thickening them where they already exist.
It has not yet been trialled in practice, although proponents say it ought to be.
Drop kick
But Kari Alterskjaer from the University of Oslo in Norway came to the European Geosciences Union (EGU) meeting in Vienna with a cautionary tale.
Her study, using observations of clouds and a computer model of the global climate, confirmed earlier findings that if cloud whitening were to be done, the best areas would be just to the west of North and South America, and to the west of Africa.
But it concluded that about 70 times more salt would have to be carried aloft than proponents have calculated.
And using droplets of the wrong size, she found, could reduce cloud cover rather than enhancing it - leading to a net warming, not the desired cooling.
Continue reading the main story
“
Start Quote
The trouble is that clouds are very complicated; as soon as you start manipulating them in one way, there are a lot of different interactions”
End Quote
Piers Forster
University of Leeds
"If the particles are too small, they will not brighten the clouds - instead they will influence particles that are already there, and there will be competition between them," she told BBC News.
"Obviously the particle size is of crucial importance, not only for whether you get a positive or negative effect, but also whether particles can actually reach the clouds - if they're too large, they just fall to the sea."
The possibility of this technique having a warming impact has been foreseen by cloud-whitening's developers.
In a 2002 scientific paper, Dr Latham wrote: "... the overall result could be a reduction in cloud droplet concentration, with concomitant reductions in albedo and cloud longevity, ie a warming effect".
But, he argued, this possibility could be eliminated by careful design of the spray system.
Contacted after the presentation in Vienna, Professor Salter took the same line.
"I agree that the drop size has to be correct and that the correct value may vary according to local conditions," he said.
"However, I am confident that we can control drop size by adjusting the frequency of an ultrasonic pressure wave which ejects drop from micro-nozzles etched in silicon.
"We can test this at very small scale in the lab."
Professor Salter is working with engineers in Edinburgh to produce extremely fine yet robust nozzles from semiconductor sheets.
Small cuts
In an era when many climate scientists are frustrated by slow progress in reducing greenhouse gas emissions, cloud whitening has sometimes been held up as an example of a technology that could make a real difference, at least to "buy time".
The technique's prospects depend crucially on how droplet size affects reflectivity
It has been calculated that a fairly modest increase in the reflectivity of these marine clouds could balance the warming from a doubling of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere - although even proponents admit it would do nothing to combat the other major consequence of carbon emissions, ocean acidification.
One scientist at Ms Alterskjaer's presentation, having heard her outline why it might not work, commented that it was the most depressing thing he had heard in a long time.
And Piers Forster from the UK's University of Leeds, who is leading a major UK project on geoengineering techniques, suggested more research would be needed before cloud whitening could be considered for "prime time" use.
"The trouble is that clouds are very complicated; as soon as you start manipulating them in one way, there are a lot of different interactions," he said.
"We need real-world data and we need modelling that tries to simulate clouds on more appropriate scales, and that means less than 100m or so, because if you look at a deck of stratocumulus it's not one big thing, it has pockets and cells and other features.
"Far more uncertain is the idea that you'd inject a particular drop size, because it won't stay that size for long - it will spread out, and that would be uncertain."
Professor Salter, too, believes more research needs to be done, including building a prototype injector ship and studying how it works in practice.
Interviewed by the BBC late last year, he said that such research was urgently needed because there was little sign of real cuts being made in the world's greenhouse gas emissions.
Tiny aerosol particles in the atmosphere are perhaps the second most important way - after greenhouse gas emissions - in which human activities are changing the Earth's climate.
But changing it how?
The last major Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) report in 2007 concluded that aerosols "remain the dominant uncertainty in radiative forcing" - partially because of the direct effects the particles have, such as reflecting and scattering the Sun's energy, and partly because they can affect cloud formation.
Since that report was compiled, researchers have gone deeper into the known unknowns of aerosols - one of the main aims being to build a picture of how they behave naturally, in order that any man-made perturbation can be more accurately assessed.
The satellite era has made things easier, with instruments on board orbiting platforms such as Calipso deploying lidars and other instruments capable of sensing how much material is present at what kinds of altitudes.
But still, obtaining a global picture is not easy - and to make things worse, observations have begun in earnest during the very period in which human activities are changing the atmosphere's aerosol load.
But scientific groups are on the case.
A couple of weeks ago, we had some insights into how increased coal-burning - notably from China - could be pumping the stuff into the atmosphere so quickly as to ameliorate the temperature rise from greenhouse gas emissions.
Last week, a different research group unveiled new findings on the impact of volcanic eruptions, which pump vast amounts of particles into the air, some rising as far as the stratosphere.
The conclusion was that volcanoes may have a greater cooling effect than previously recognised.
And this week, in Science, comes a fresh analysis of aerosols in the stratosphere itself, and their impact on global temperatures.
The top line message is that the increase in concentrations over the "noughties" has partially masked temperature rise - similar to the conclusion of the research released two weeks ago, but using a radically different line of inquiry.
And climate models, the researchers say, mostly understate the impact of aerosols in the stratosphere, so may be projecting that temperatures will rise faster than they actually are.
Volcanoes have massive impacts on the stratospheric load of these tiny sulphate particles. But they're fairly short-term, producing stark spikes that decay away after a few years.
But the background aerosol concentration is also changing, the researchers find - for reasons that are not immediately obvious.
When I called one of the researchers, Ells Dutton from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (Noaa), he described the top line message as "relatively mild".
"When you account for this additional aerosol that's not been accounted for previously, that weakens the overall net forcing that existed over the 2000s.
"So the positive forcing was partially negated by this negative forcing, so you'd expect warming to have been less."
But there are also things it doesn't tell us.
The sources could be entirely natural; "but if you then ask whether some of the Chinese stuff is getting into the stratosphere, it could be - we can't sort that out."
Another question is this; if all or most of the sources are natural, what are those sources, besides vulcanism?
So, lots more to research - and one potential implication outside the realm of understanding climate change.
The cheapest of all geo-engineering techniques yet conceived involves putting multiple tonnes of this stuff into the stratosphere, where it would reflect sunlight back into space, cooling the Earth's surface.
Controversial, of course; but a number of eminent people such as UK renewable energy pioneer Stephen Salter suggest that research should begin in earnest, because they don't believe our society is going to curb greenhouse gas emissions at anything like the rate needed to slow global warming.
Clearly, if this is ever to be attempted, understanding how the particles will behave in the upper atmosphere would be of paramount importance.
David Keith from the University of Calgary, one of the leading lights in the field, told me this: "I don't see any strong implications for solar geo-engineering, [but] it may help to dispel naive assumptions that solar geo-engineering would be an all or nothing affair.
"In fact, if it ever did make sense to try it, it would make sense to try incremental additions of sulphur coupled with an intense observation campaign that looked for problems."
It's interesting to note by comparison how another geo-engineering option - iron fertilisation of the oceans - has been investigated in practice.
The mass of evidence generated over more than a decade of experimentation has told researchers a lot about the various things that are likely to determine how well it works - and the biggest trial of all, the German Lohafex project, suggested it might not work at all.
By comparison, our knowledge about sulphate aerosol injection is tiny.
The title of the Science paper - The Persistently Variable "Background" Stratospheric Aerosol Layer and Global Climate Change - is well-chosen in that it indicates both that significant research has been done, and that the findings it's produced are somewhat frustrating - and honestly given as such.
Earth experiment could buy precious time
As the UK's Royal Society prepares to publish its conclusions on whether geo-engineering can help combat climate change, physicist Alan Gadian argues that geo-engineering techniques, in particular cloud whitening, must be properly tested - and soon.
Planet Earth has become a huge science experiment, and the consequences will affect all of us.
"Global warming poses a greater threat than world terrorism and agreement must be reached within two years to mitigate global warming and minimise environmental catastrophe," Sir David King, the UK's chief scientist, wrote in 2007.
On 8 July this year, the G8 proposed a 50% reduction of global emissions of carbon dioxide by 2050. It remains to be seen whether this will be fast enough.
And carbon dioxide is not the only problem.
Methane is a greenhouse gas 21 times more potent, and the wastelands of Siberia are now releasing fountains of methane as the permafrost melts, adding to the greenhouse warming effect.
So how can geo-engineering help?
I define geo-engineering as man-made environmental change; and I would include in its definition the unprecedented burning of fossil fuels that has pumped large quantities of carbon dioxide into the atmosphere, and the massive increase in the number of farm animals with consequential methane production.
Changes in agriculture, in Africa for example, have resulted in the felling of large areas of forest and have removed the water storage capacity of the land. This has led to the rapid advance of the desert in the Sahel region.
The planet has been and is warming further. This will also lead to significant changes in precipitation, and flooding will remove prime agriculturally productive land.
Whiter clouds
In a 1990 paper in the journal Nature, John Latham, a scientist at the National Center for Atmospheric Research in Colorado, US, suggested that increasing the number of droplets in maritime layer clouds (stratocumulus) could significantly increase their reflectance.
These clouds cover a third of the ocean.
The water droplets in clouds reflect solar radiation back to space. And the numbers of droplets they contain are largely controlled by the number of cloud condensation nuclei (CCN), such as specks of dust.
Many of these nuclei are produced over the land. Land-locked clouds therefore contain many hundreds of cloud droplets per cubic centimetre, whilst clouds that form over the sea contain substantially fewer.
Generally, the more droplets that are present in a cloud, the smaller they are.
For a given mass of water in a cloud, clouds with smaller droplets tend to be whiter. This was illustrated by the Edinburgh University scientist Stephen Salter's example of glass beads in a jar - the smaller the beads, the whiter they appear.
So the proposal is to inject a fine spray of sea salt from the ocean surface into the clouds; to artificially increase the number of drops, reduce their size and increase the reflectance of the clouds, making them whiter.
This one-off increase in reflectance - and the resulting cooling - could buy us precious time; maybe as much as 25 years.
But we need numerical models and field experiments to determine the ideal size of the sea-salt nuclei.
Results from climate models show that a modest increase of nuclei in marine stratocumulus clouds could produce the desired cooling.
Further research is required, but preliminary results suggest this could compensate for up to a doubling of atmospheric carbon dioxide from pre-industrial levels.
Initial results suggest that the biggest cooling would occur in the polar regions, which is consistent with theory, and is exactly the place where cooling is most needed.
The big advantages of this scheme are that it uses sea water spray, a naturally occurring substance, and that it can be turned off immediately if there are any undesirable consequences.
The technology
Professor Salter has even suggested a design for a fleet of about 2000 of wind-powered yachts, which incorporate a sophisticated spray mechanism that is now being developed.
My colleagues and I propose to carry out detailed research of the scheme and provide an answer on its viability within five years.
There are four elements to this research:
•cloud physics modelling; there are many questions about the optimal size of sea-salt CCN and how the clouds will respond to their increased numbers
•further climate modelling
•developing and building Stephen Salter's test yachts
•a field experiment; a limited-area field experiment is needed in a region of stratocumulus clouds, and we already have advanced-stage plans with potential collaborators in the US
The cost
Initial estimates suggest that we could complete the research for approximately £6m ($10m), and produce a result that will determine if the proposed scheme is viable or not.
The research needs to be carried out, otherwise we will not know, five to 10 years from now, if we could have done anything to slow down the warming and the irreversible change in the Earth system.
It is an insignificant sum compared to the cost of doing nothing.
As James Lovelock states: "There have been seven disasters since humans came on the Earth, very similar to the one that's just about to happen."
He argues that billions of people are likely to die in the ensuing famine. "Enjoy life while you can.
"Because if you're lucky it's going to be 20 years before it hits the fan".
We can do something to provide a breathing space. That something should start now.
Dr Alan Gadian is a senior research lecturer in the School of Earth and the Environment at the University of Leeds, UK
Dr Gadian would like to extend his thanks to collaborators Alan Blyth, John Latham and Stephen Salter
The Green Room is a series of opinion articles on environmental topics running weekly on the BBC News website
Climate 'technical fix' may yield warming, not cooling
By Richard Black
Environment correspondent, BBC News, Vienna
Whitening clouds by spraying them with seawater, proposed as a "technical fix" for climate change, could do more harm than good, according to research.
Whiter clouds reflect more solar energy back into space, cooling the Earth.
But a study presented at the European Geosciences Union meeting found that using water droplets of the wrong size would lead to warming, not cooling.
One of the theory's scientific fathers said it should be possible to make sure droplets were the correct size.
Cloud whitening was originally proposed back in 1990 by John Latham, now of the University Corporation for Atmospheric Research in Boulder, US.
It has since been developed by a number of other researchers including University of Edinburgh wave energy pioneer Stephen Salter, joining a number of other "geoengineering" techniques that would attempt either to reduce solar radiation reaching earth or absorb carbon dioxide from the air.
One version envisages specially designed ships, powered by wind, operating in areas of the ocean where reflective stratocumulus clouds are scarce.
The ships would continually spray fine jets of seawater droplets into the sky, where tiny salt crystals would act as nuclei around which water vapour would condense, producing clouds or thickening them where they already exist.
It has not yet been trialled in practice, although proponents say it ought to be.
Drop kick
But Kari Alterskjaer from the University of Oslo in Norway came to the European Geosciences Union (EGU) meeting in Vienna with a cautionary tale.
Her study, using observations of clouds and a computer model of the global climate, confirmed earlier findings that if cloud whitening were to be done, the best areas would be just to the west of North and South America, and to the west of Africa.
But it concluded that about 70 times more salt would have to be carried aloft than proponents have calculated.
And using droplets of the wrong size, she found, could reduce cloud cover rather than enhancing it - leading to a net warming, not the desired cooling.
Continue reading the main story
“
Start Quote
The trouble is that clouds are very complicated; as soon as you start manipulating them in one way, there are a lot of different interactions”
End Quote
Piers Forster
University of Leeds
"If the particles are too small, they will not brighten the clouds - instead they will influence particles that are already there, and there will be competition between them," she told BBC News.
"Obviously the particle size is of crucial importance, not only for whether you get a positive or negative effect, but also whether particles can actually reach the clouds - if they're too large, they just fall to the sea."
The possibility of this technique having a warming impact has been foreseen by cloud-whitening's developers.
In a 2002 scientific paper, Dr Latham wrote: "... the overall result could be a reduction in cloud droplet concentration, with concomitant reductions in albedo and cloud longevity, ie a warming effect".
But, he argued, this possibility could be eliminated by careful design of the spray system.
Contacted after the presentation in Vienna, Professor Salter took the same line.
"I agree that the drop size has to be correct and that the correct value may vary according to local conditions," he said.
"However, I am confident that we can control drop size by adjusting the frequency of an ultrasonic pressure wave which ejects drop from micro-nozzles etched in silicon.
"We can test this at very small scale in the lab."
Professor Salter is working with engineers in Edinburgh to produce extremely fine yet robust nozzles from semiconductor sheets.
Small cuts
In an era when many climate scientists are frustrated by slow progress in reducing greenhouse gas emissions, cloud whitening has sometimes been held up as an example of a technology that could make a real difference, at least to "buy time".
The technique's prospects depend crucially on how droplet size affects reflectivity
It has been calculated that a fairly modest increase in the reflectivity of these marine clouds could balance the warming from a doubling of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere - although even proponents admit it would do nothing to combat the other major consequence of carbon emissions, ocean acidification.
One scientist at Ms Alterskjaer's presentation, having heard her outline why it might not work, commented that it was the most depressing thing he had heard in a long time.
And Piers Forster from the UK's University of Leeds, who is leading a major UK project on geoengineering techniques, suggested more research would be needed before cloud whitening could be considered for "prime time" use.
"The trouble is that clouds are very complicated; as soon as you start manipulating them in one way, there are a lot of different interactions," he said.
"We need real-world data and we need modelling that tries to simulate clouds on more appropriate scales, and that means less than 100m or so, because if you look at a deck of stratocumulus it's not one big thing, it has pockets and cells and other features.
"Far more uncertain is the idea that you'd inject a particular drop size, because it won't stay that size for long - it will spread out, and that would be uncertain."
Professor Salter, too, believes more research needs to be done, including building a prototype injector ship and studying how it works in practice.
Interviewed by the BBC late last year, he said that such research was urgently needed because there was little sign of real cuts being made in the world's greenhouse gas emissions.
Lessons from the death of North Korea's first leader By Humphrey Hawksley, 19 Dec 2011
When North Korea's "Great Leader", Kim Il-sung, died suddenly in July 1994, the country was immediately plunged into a power struggle that has never been resolved.
As the period of mourning began, reports emerged of troop movements in Pyongyang and other major cities as different factions of the military and the ruling party rushed to consolidate their positions.
That Kim Jong-il would succeed his father was not in doubt, but the level of his control over secretive state institutions was a complete unknown.
Negotiations with the US to dismantle North Korea's nuclear weapons' programme had broken down the previous year, and the US administration was preparing for the possibility of the collapse of the regime and - in a worst-case scenario - war.
Amid all this, the BBC was allowed in, with the invitation itself proving to be evidence of the tensions under the surface.
In the week that we were chaperoned around, open arguments broke out between minders - often in front of us.
Our first stop was a huge Pyongyang art gallery where artists were working round the clock on portraits of Kim Jong-il. Stacked up under high ceilings, they showed North Korea's new leader taking command in an array of places - farms, factories and on warships.
But one minder told me under his breath: "He is only the Dear Leader. It'll be years before they are shown."
Our next visit was to a badge-making factory where new red lapel badges of the "Dear Leader" were tumbling out of a machine. One minder explained the factory was working overtime to meet the huge demand of the people. Another insisted they would be held back until it was "safe" to be seen wearing one.
The badges were apparently related to the ruling party and therefore might not have been viewed with sympathy in places where the party and the military were at odds.
Sticking together
In a long interview with a senior party official, we were told that this was an opportunity for North Korea to open up for reform. I later heard that he had lost his particular power battle. He had been executed for corruption.
Our minders were young men, mostly educated in China, Russia, even Malta, and we never knew exactly which institutions commanded their loyalty.
Over evening drinks they would crack hilarious jokes.
One night, the conversation turned to America and the 1969 moon landing. Despite their differences, our highly intelligent guides became deadly serious, insisting that this historic event had never happened because North Korea would be the first country to send a man to the moon.
While Kim Il-sung held absolute sway over his country, under Kim Jong-il it slid deeper into poverty and further towards military confrontation.
In 2006 and 2009, it carried out nuclear tests. In March 2010, it sank a South Korean patrol boat. And in November 2010 it shelled an island near the disputed border.
Tributes and mourning over the next few days may well follow the public pattern seen in 1994.
One similarity is the delay - under the traditions of Confucian mourning - between the death of Kim Jong-il on Saturday and the announcement more than a day later. The regime kept the secret so well that the South Korean President, Lee Myung-bak, only knew about it from the television news.
Rivalry may run high underneath, but in a crisis, North Korea's secretive and ruthless leaders have a track record of sticking together.
As the period of mourning began, reports emerged of troop movements in Pyongyang and other major cities as different factions of the military and the ruling party rushed to consolidate their positions.
That Kim Jong-il would succeed his father was not in doubt, but the level of his control over secretive state institutions was a complete unknown.
Negotiations with the US to dismantle North Korea's nuclear weapons' programme had broken down the previous year, and the US administration was preparing for the possibility of the collapse of the regime and - in a worst-case scenario - war.
Amid all this, the BBC was allowed in, with the invitation itself proving to be evidence of the tensions under the surface.
In the week that we were chaperoned around, open arguments broke out between minders - often in front of us.
Our first stop was a huge Pyongyang art gallery where artists were working round the clock on portraits of Kim Jong-il. Stacked up under high ceilings, they showed North Korea's new leader taking command in an array of places - farms, factories and on warships.
But one minder told me under his breath: "He is only the Dear Leader. It'll be years before they are shown."
Our next visit was to a badge-making factory where new red lapel badges of the "Dear Leader" were tumbling out of a machine. One minder explained the factory was working overtime to meet the huge demand of the people. Another insisted they would be held back until it was "safe" to be seen wearing one.
The badges were apparently related to the ruling party and therefore might not have been viewed with sympathy in places where the party and the military were at odds.
Sticking together
In a long interview with a senior party official, we were told that this was an opportunity for North Korea to open up for reform. I later heard that he had lost his particular power battle. He had been executed for corruption.
Our minders were young men, mostly educated in China, Russia, even Malta, and we never knew exactly which institutions commanded their loyalty.
Over evening drinks they would crack hilarious jokes.
One night, the conversation turned to America and the 1969 moon landing. Despite their differences, our highly intelligent guides became deadly serious, insisting that this historic event had never happened because North Korea would be the first country to send a man to the moon.
While Kim Il-sung held absolute sway over his country, under Kim Jong-il it slid deeper into poverty and further towards military confrontation.
In 2006 and 2009, it carried out nuclear tests. In March 2010, it sank a South Korean patrol boat. And in November 2010 it shelled an island near the disputed border.
Tributes and mourning over the next few days may well follow the public pattern seen in 1994.
One similarity is the delay - under the traditions of Confucian mourning - between the death of Kim Jong-il on Saturday and the announcement more than a day later. The regime kept the secret so well that the South Korean President, Lee Myung-bak, only knew about it from the television news.
Rivalry may run high underneath, but in a crisis, North Korea's secretive and ruthless leaders have a track record of sticking together.
Osama Bin Laden 'plotted to kill Obama' before death
17 March 2012 BBC
Osama Bin Laden asked deputies to prepare an attack on Obama's presidential aircraft Continue reading the main story
Osama Bin Laden was plotting to kill US President Barack Obama, US media reports say.
The plans are said to be in papers found in the compound in Abbottabad where the al-Qaeda leader was killed by US special forces last year.
Bin Laden asked deputies to plan an attack against an aircraft carrying Mr Obama and General David Petraeus
The documents were seen by the Washington Post. There is growing anticipation in the US over government plans to publish all the papers seized at the compound when it was raided in May 2011.
Laptops, notepads and computer hard drives were also taken.
Bin Laden asked one of his deputies, Ilyas Kashmiri, to start preparing the attack.
Drone danger
"Please ask brother Ilyas to send me the steps he has taken into that work," he wrote in a 48-page note.
The US media says intelligence officials believe it is unlikely that al-Qaeda had the capacity to launch such an attack in the US, and have not seen evidence of any preparations.
Kashmiri was killed in a US air attack a month after the death of Bin Laden.
In his 48-page note Bin Laden called on al-Qaeda operatives to move away from the Pakistani tribal areas because of the constant attacks by US remotely-controlled planes.
He also debated changing al-Qaeda's name, because US officials "have largely stopped using the phrase 'the war on terror' in the context of not wanting to provoke Muslims", he said.
The Washington Post
By David Ignatius, Published: March 16
Before his death, Osama bin Laden boldly commanded his network to organize special cells in Afghanistan and Pakistan to attack the aircraft of President Obama and Gen. David H. Petraeus.
“The reason for concentrating on them,” the al-Qaeda leader explained to his top lieutenant, “is that Obama is the head of infidelity and killing him automatically will make [Vice President] Biden take over the presidency. . . . Biden is totally unprepared for that post, which will lead the U.S. into a crisis. As for Petraeus, he is the man of the hour . . . and killing him would alter the war’s path” in Afghanistan.
Administration officials said Friday that the Obama-Petraeus plot was never a serious threat.
The scheme is described in one of the documents taken from bin Laden’s compound by U.S. forces on May 2, the night he was killed. I was given an exclusive look at some of these remarkable documents by a senior administration official. They have been declassified and will be available soon to the public in their original Arabic texts and translations.
The man bin Laden hoped would carry out the attacks on Obama and Petraeus was the Pakistani terrorist Ilyas Kashmiri. “Please ask brother Ilyas to send me the steps he has taken into that work,” bin Laden wrote to his top lieutenant, Atiyah Abd al-Rahman. A month after bin Laden’s death, Kashmiri was killed in a U.S. drone attack.
The plot to target Obama was probably bluster, since al-Qaeda apparently lacked the weapons to shoot down U.S. aircraft. But it’s a chilling reminder that even when he was embattled and in hiding, bin Laden still dreamed of pulling off another spectacular terror attack against the United States.
The terrorist leader urged in a 48-page directive to Atiyah to focus “every effort that could be spent on attacks in America,” instead of operations within Muslim nations. He told Atiyah to “ask the brothers in all regions if they have a brother . . . who can operate in the U.S. [He should be able to] live there, or it should be easy for him to travel there.”
U.S. analysts don’t see evidence that these plots have materialized. “The organization lacks the ability to plan, organize and execute complex, catastrophic attacks, but the threat persists,” says a senior administration analyst who has carefully reviewed the documents.
The bin Laden who emerges from these communications is a terrorist CEO in an isolated compound, brooding that his organization has ruined its reputation by killing too many Muslims in its jihad against America. He writes of the many departed “brothers” who have been lost to U.S. drone attacks. But he’s far from the battlefield himself in his hideout in Abbottabad, Pakistan, where he seems to spend considerable time watching television.
The garbled syntax of bin Laden’s communications may result from their being dictated to several of his wives, according to the U.S. analyst. And his rambling laundry list of recommendations illustrates the problems of communicating with subordinates when it could take several months to receive an answer. The al-Qaeda leader had a “great fear of irrelevance,” the analyst believes.
Because of constant harassment and communications difficulties in Pakistan’s tribal areas, bin Laden encouraged al-Qaeda leaders to leave north and south Waziristan for more distant and remote locations.
Bin Laden had an unlikely managerial focus, for such a notorious terrorist. He discusses the need for “deputy emirs” and “acting emirs” to run regional operations when the local boss is away, and he suggests that emirs should serve two-year terms and write an “annual report to be sent to the central group detailing the local situation.” He allowed a relatively frank exchange with his subordinates, who voiced criticisms about the organization’s errors.
Though open to internal debate, bin Laden and his aides had rigid views about Muslim theology. Atiyah sent his leader a strident letter in June 2009 detailing what he saw as doctrinal errors among other jihadists.
Bin Laden’s biggest concern was al-Qaeda’s media image among Muslims. He worried that it was so tarnished that, in a draft letter probably intended for Atiyah, he argued that the organization should find a new name.
The al-Qaeda brand had become a problem, bin Laden explained, because Obama administration officials “have largely stopped using the phrase ‘the war on terror’ in the context of not wanting to provoke Muslims,” and instead promoted a war against al-Qaeda. The organization’s full name was “Qaeda al-Jihad,” bin Laden noted, but in its shorthand version, “this name reduces the feeling of Muslims that we belong to them.” He proposed 10 alternatives “that would not easily be shortened to a word that does not represent us.” His first recommendation was “Taifat al-tawhid wal-jihad,” or Monotheism and Jihad Group.
Bin Laden ruminated about “mistakes” and “miscalculations” by affiliates in Iraq and elsewhere that had killed Muslims, even in mosques. He told Atiyah to warn every emir, or regional leader, to avoid these “unnecessary civilian casualties,” which were hurting the organization.
“Making these mistakes is a great issue,” he stressed, arguing that spilling “Muslim blood” had resulted in “the alienation of most of the nation [of Islam] from the [Mujaheddin].” Local al-Qaeda leaders should “apologize and be held responsible for what happened.”
Bin Laden also criticized subordinates for linking their operations to local grievances rather than the overarching Muslim cause of Palestine. He chided his affiliate in Yemen for saying an operation was a response to U.S. bombing there. He even scolded the organizers of the spectacular December 2009 suicide attack on the CIA base in Khost, Afghanistan, for describing it as revenge for the killing of Pakistani Taliban leader Baitullah Mehsud. “It was necessary to discuss Palestine first,” lectured bin Laden.
Bin Laden’s focus on attacking the U.S. homeland led to sharp disagreements with his deputy, Ayman al-Zawahiri, who favored easier and more opportunistic attacks on U.S. forces in Iraq, Afghanistan and other areas.
Bin Laden told Atiyah that al-Qaeda’s best chance for establishing an Islamic state was Yemen, which he described as the “launching point” for attacks on the Persian Gulf oil states. “Control of these nations means control of the world,” he wrote. But he worried that the push in Yemen would come too soon, and he advised his colleagues to wait three years, if necessary, before making a decisive move. By fighting too hard in Syria in the early 1980s, he noted, the Muslim Brotherhood “lost a generation of men.”
Bin Laden and his aides hoped for big terrorist operations to commemorate the 10th anniversary of Sept. 11, 2001. They also had elaborate media plans. Adam Gadahn, a U.S.-born media adviser, even discussed in a message to his boss what would be the best television outlets for a bin Laden anniversary video.
“It should be sent for example to ABC, CBS, NBC, and CNN and maybe PBS and VOA. As for Fox News let her die in her anger,” Gadahn wrote. At another point, he said of the networks: “From a professional point of view, they are all on one level — except [Fox News] channel, which falls into the abyss as you know, and lacks objectivity, too.”
What an unintended boost for Fox, which can now boast that it is al-Qaeda’s least favorite network.
davidignatius@washpost.com
Osama Bin Laden asked deputies to prepare an attack on Obama's presidential aircraft Continue reading the main story
Osama Bin Laden was plotting to kill US President Barack Obama, US media reports say.
The plans are said to be in papers found in the compound in Abbottabad where the al-Qaeda leader was killed by US special forces last year.
Bin Laden asked deputies to plan an attack against an aircraft carrying Mr Obama and General David Petraeus
The documents were seen by the Washington Post. There is growing anticipation in the US over government plans to publish all the papers seized at the compound when it was raided in May 2011.
Laptops, notepads and computer hard drives were also taken.
Bin Laden asked one of his deputies, Ilyas Kashmiri, to start preparing the attack.
Drone danger
"Please ask brother Ilyas to send me the steps he has taken into that work," he wrote in a 48-page note.
The US media says intelligence officials believe it is unlikely that al-Qaeda had the capacity to launch such an attack in the US, and have not seen evidence of any preparations.
Kashmiri was killed in a US air attack a month after the death of Bin Laden.
In his 48-page note Bin Laden called on al-Qaeda operatives to move away from the Pakistani tribal areas because of the constant attacks by US remotely-controlled planes.
He also debated changing al-Qaeda's name, because US officials "have largely stopped using the phrase 'the war on terror' in the context of not wanting to provoke Muslims", he said.
The Washington Post
By David Ignatius, Published: March 16
Before his death, Osama bin Laden boldly commanded his network to organize special cells in Afghanistan and Pakistan to attack the aircraft of President Obama and Gen. David H. Petraeus.
“The reason for concentrating on them,” the al-Qaeda leader explained to his top lieutenant, “is that Obama is the head of infidelity and killing him automatically will make [Vice President] Biden take over the presidency. . . . Biden is totally unprepared for that post, which will lead the U.S. into a crisis. As for Petraeus, he is the man of the hour . . . and killing him would alter the war’s path” in Afghanistan.
Administration officials said Friday that the Obama-Petraeus plot was never a serious threat.
The scheme is described in one of the documents taken from bin Laden’s compound by U.S. forces on May 2, the night he was killed. I was given an exclusive look at some of these remarkable documents by a senior administration official. They have been declassified and will be available soon to the public in their original Arabic texts and translations.
The man bin Laden hoped would carry out the attacks on Obama and Petraeus was the Pakistani terrorist Ilyas Kashmiri. “Please ask brother Ilyas to send me the steps he has taken into that work,” bin Laden wrote to his top lieutenant, Atiyah Abd al-Rahman. A month after bin Laden’s death, Kashmiri was killed in a U.S. drone attack.
The plot to target Obama was probably bluster, since al-Qaeda apparently lacked the weapons to shoot down U.S. aircraft. But it’s a chilling reminder that even when he was embattled and in hiding, bin Laden still dreamed of pulling off another spectacular terror attack against the United States.
The terrorist leader urged in a 48-page directive to Atiyah to focus “every effort that could be spent on attacks in America,” instead of operations within Muslim nations. He told Atiyah to “ask the brothers in all regions if they have a brother . . . who can operate in the U.S. [He should be able to] live there, or it should be easy for him to travel there.”
U.S. analysts don’t see evidence that these plots have materialized. “The organization lacks the ability to plan, organize and execute complex, catastrophic attacks, but the threat persists,” says a senior administration analyst who has carefully reviewed the documents.
The bin Laden who emerges from these communications is a terrorist CEO in an isolated compound, brooding that his organization has ruined its reputation by killing too many Muslims in its jihad against America. He writes of the many departed “brothers” who have been lost to U.S. drone attacks. But he’s far from the battlefield himself in his hideout in Abbottabad, Pakistan, where he seems to spend considerable time watching television.
The garbled syntax of bin Laden’s communications may result from their being dictated to several of his wives, according to the U.S. analyst. And his rambling laundry list of recommendations illustrates the problems of communicating with subordinates when it could take several months to receive an answer. The al-Qaeda leader had a “great fear of irrelevance,” the analyst believes.
Because of constant harassment and communications difficulties in Pakistan’s tribal areas, bin Laden encouraged al-Qaeda leaders to leave north and south Waziristan for more distant and remote locations.
Bin Laden had an unlikely managerial focus, for such a notorious terrorist. He discusses the need for “deputy emirs” and “acting emirs” to run regional operations when the local boss is away, and he suggests that emirs should serve two-year terms and write an “annual report to be sent to the central group detailing the local situation.” He allowed a relatively frank exchange with his subordinates, who voiced criticisms about the organization’s errors.
Though open to internal debate, bin Laden and his aides had rigid views about Muslim theology. Atiyah sent his leader a strident letter in June 2009 detailing what he saw as doctrinal errors among other jihadists.
Bin Laden’s biggest concern was al-Qaeda’s media image among Muslims. He worried that it was so tarnished that, in a draft letter probably intended for Atiyah, he argued that the organization should find a new name.
The al-Qaeda brand had become a problem, bin Laden explained, because Obama administration officials “have largely stopped using the phrase ‘the war on terror’ in the context of not wanting to provoke Muslims,” and instead promoted a war against al-Qaeda. The organization’s full name was “Qaeda al-Jihad,” bin Laden noted, but in its shorthand version, “this name reduces the feeling of Muslims that we belong to them.” He proposed 10 alternatives “that would not easily be shortened to a word that does not represent us.” His first recommendation was “Taifat al-tawhid wal-jihad,” or Monotheism and Jihad Group.
Bin Laden ruminated about “mistakes” and “miscalculations” by affiliates in Iraq and elsewhere that had killed Muslims, even in mosques. He told Atiyah to warn every emir, or regional leader, to avoid these “unnecessary civilian casualties,” which were hurting the organization.
“Making these mistakes is a great issue,” he stressed, arguing that spilling “Muslim blood” had resulted in “the alienation of most of the nation [of Islam] from the [Mujaheddin].” Local al-Qaeda leaders should “apologize and be held responsible for what happened.”
Bin Laden also criticized subordinates for linking their operations to local grievances rather than the overarching Muslim cause of Palestine. He chided his affiliate in Yemen for saying an operation was a response to U.S. bombing there. He even scolded the organizers of the spectacular December 2009 suicide attack on the CIA base in Khost, Afghanistan, for describing it as revenge for the killing of Pakistani Taliban leader Baitullah Mehsud. “It was necessary to discuss Palestine first,” lectured bin Laden.
Bin Laden’s focus on attacking the U.S. homeland led to sharp disagreements with his deputy, Ayman al-Zawahiri, who favored easier and more opportunistic attacks on U.S. forces in Iraq, Afghanistan and other areas.
Bin Laden told Atiyah that al-Qaeda’s best chance for establishing an Islamic state was Yemen, which he described as the “launching point” for attacks on the Persian Gulf oil states. “Control of these nations means control of the world,” he wrote. But he worried that the push in Yemen would come too soon, and he advised his colleagues to wait three years, if necessary, before making a decisive move. By fighting too hard in Syria in the early 1980s, he noted, the Muslim Brotherhood “lost a generation of men.”
Bin Laden and his aides hoped for big terrorist operations to commemorate the 10th anniversary of Sept. 11, 2001. They also had elaborate media plans. Adam Gadahn, a U.S.-born media adviser, even discussed in a message to his boss what would be the best television outlets for a bin Laden anniversary video.
“It should be sent for example to ABC, CBS, NBC, and CNN and maybe PBS and VOA. As for Fox News let her die in her anger,” Gadahn wrote. At another point, he said of the networks: “From a professional point of view, they are all on one level — except [Fox News] channel, which falls into the abyss as you know, and lacks objectivity, too.”
What an unintended boost for Fox, which can now boast that it is al-Qaeda’s least favorite network.
davidignatius@washpost.com
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