Dec 9, 2007
How S'pore stays at the top of the game
With its 7.9 per cent growth last year, it has been called a developed country growing at developing-nation rates. Bryan Lee explains this anomaly.
IT IS almost a given that in the global rankings for economic growth, poor countries typically fill the top spots while rich nations bring up the rear.
Last year's top three - Azerbaijan, the Maldives and Angola - clocked in impressive expansion of between 18 and 31 per cent.
But they were anything but wealthy: Their citizens took home an average income of less than US$3,000 (S$4,300) that year.
In contrast, the United States, the world's biggest economy, grew a paltry 2.9 per cent.
Against this long-standing trend, Singapore stands out as an anomaly.
At 7.9 per cent, Singapore's economic performance puts it more in the league of emerging growth stars such as China and India than in the comparatively tired ranks of the US, Europe and Japan.
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GDP Growth
Yet the Republic is one of the most affluent countries in the world, coming in at No. 25 in per capita GDP terms. In Asia, it is beaten only by Japan and Brunei, and may well leapfrog both to the No. 1 position this year.
In fact, out of the 180 nations ranked by the International Monetary Fund, only two rich countries grew faster than Singapore - oil-rich Qatar and the United
Arab Emirates.
Indeed, this phenomenon was picked up in a recent report in The Economist magazine, which described Singapore as 'a developed country that grows at developing-country rates'.
The report was quoted by Prime Minister Lee Hsien Loong at an NTUC conference in October, when he said economic growth this year will hit the upper end of the official forecast of 7 per cent to 8 per cent.
So, how has this tiny country with no natural resources managed such a feat? Is it just sheer survival instinct gone into overdrive?
The rise - and fall - of productivity
THEORIES about long-term economic growth come in several flavours but virtually all the major ones stem from a common foundation.
An economy's capacity to produce goods and services is essentially constrained by two ingredients - capital and labour.
Growth therefore is determined in a big way by the rates at which a country is expanding its stock of machinery, infrastructure and workers.
It is also largely dependent on the productivity of these two production factors which tends to decline as capital and labour are accumulated.
A baker, for instance, would be more efficient if he were given a whisk. But hand him another whisk and it would probably do little to get the cake out of the oven faster.
Little surprise then that developing countries, with their explosive population growth rates, can expand their economies quickly simply on the back of a fast-growing workforce.
Also, as their factories are relatively poorer equipped, and other supporting infrastructure such as roads less developed, the output boost from additional capital investments will be bigger than in developed countries.
This in turn translates into a higher rate of capital accumulation, since investment spending equals the portion of a country's output or income that is not consumed by households and the government.
In this simple model, Singapore's economic prospects look bleak.
With a population that is struggling to replace itself and factories, roads and ports that are top-flight, the Republic would seem to be doomed to slow growth rates.
But the Singapore Government estimates that the country's long-term potential growth rate lies between 4 per cent and 6 per cent, well ahead of those in the developed world.
And in the past three years, helped in no small part by a buoyant global economy, its economic growth would appear to be no less than miraculous, reaching an annual average of about 7.8 per cent.
A nimble labour force, thanks to foreigners
THE magic, say economists, lies in Singapore's flexible labour markets.
'Most of the growth comes from our elastic labour supply, where we can rely on bringing in more foreign workers,' said Citigroup economist Chua Hak Bin.
Step into a shop or restaurant these days and there's a good chance you will be served by a Filipino or a migrant from China.
Shipyards, construction sites and factories are also well staffed by workers from the region.
Government statistics show that Singapore's non-resident population has swelled 34 per cent in the past four years to one million.
In contrast, the resident population expanded just 7 per cent, a figure likely to have been helped by a fair number of expatriates who have taken up permanent residency here.
While some may wonder if this absorption of foreigners is at the expense of local workers, recent employment figures point to a labour force that is maxed out, so labour imports are necessary to keep the economy growing.
Marching up the technological ladder
OF COURSE, the Singapore growth phenomenon is not just a simple recipe of adding more workers.
The country has undergone major economic restructuring to upgrade itself to take on higher value-added activities.
In economic growth theory, technology and human capital - that is, education and training investments - are two key factors that can help mitigate the diminishing productivity of labour and capital.
And unlike labour and capital, these two factors have a certain self-sustaining, self-propagating element. Returning to the baker, he would prefer to be given a Kitchen Aid rather than 100 whisks of the same value. Not only is the mixer much more efficient, it may even enable him to come up with different and better cakes.
And if he is sent to the finest pastry school in France, he could make a lot more money selling souffles than pandan chiffon cakes. He could even pass on his new skills to his friends, spreading the benefits of his training beyond himself.
In a similar way, Singapore has moved from making calculators to semiconductors, and embraced high-value service industries such as financial services.
Much of this has been achieved through targeted government policies that create a suitable business environment for foreign investors, promoting in particular several key sectors.
These measures, which may take the form of tax breaks, are costly. But they have helped attract investments from overseas that inject not just capital into the economy but new technologies as well.
Efforts, including direct public funding, have also been made to build up research and development activities here. These would go some way towards helping the economy sustain a continuous rise up the technological ladder.
The same is being done in the human capital side of the equation, with constant improvements to the education system.
'With the resources accumulated over the past four decades, the Government has a large enough war chest to prepare the economy for the next stage of development,' says CIMB-GK economist Song Seng Wun.
Reality of a supply crunch
SO HAS Singapore achieved economic nirvana, where wealth creation fears little abatement?
DBS Bank economist Irvin Seah reckons Singapore's small size has made it especially nimble to respond to threats and opportunities in the global cycles of boom and bust.
'The economic structure is well diversified. Singapore has a unique collection of strengths that is hard to emulate and that has allowed us to enjoy a mid- to long-term growth higher than many countries.'
But all that nimbleness ultimately requires acute judgment and some degree of clairvoyance on the part of the Government, whose policies have played no small part in Singapore's success.
As it stands, trouble is brewing, and ironically, it is partly a consequence of the 'developing economy' growth rates of the past few years.
Inflation, while low by world standards, hit a 16-year high of 3.6 per cent in October and is set to rise even more next year.
While due in part to high global oil and food prices, this has come about because the surprisingly rapid expansion of the economy is using up spare capacity in the system. In the property and labour markets, in particular, demand is far outstripping supply, and this imbalance is pushing up prices.
The Government is releasing more land for developing homes and offices, but it will take some years before these are built.
There is also the tried-and- tested foreign labour solution. Certainly, the large populations of Singapore's Asian neighbours would ensure a ready supply. But simply allowing more immigrant workers into the country, as the Government is doing next month, may not be enough.
High rentals, coupled with rising living costs, mean employers will need to pay foreign workers higher wages to bring them in.
Indeed, this has prompted the Government to hold back $2 billion worth of public construction projects to ease the supply crunch.
'The economy is currently facing a serious supply-side constraint. Shortage of land and labour has driven up rentals and wages,' says Mr Seah.
All this goes to show that even the most efficient of governments can do only so much to bend economic realities.
For sure, many of the current issues will subside in time.
But in the meantime, the pain of higher electricity and restaurant bills will, for the man on the street, take off some of the shine from the trend-breaking achievement of the Singapore economy.
bryanlee@sph.com.sg
Wednesday, December 12, 2007
Chinese Migrant workers in Singapore
Dec 9, 2007
How much is this? And please speak in English
China workers may be cheaper to hire, but their lack of English is putting off some customers
By Mavis Toh & Shuli Sudderuddin
STEP into the toy department of Isetan Scotts and chances are you will be served by Zhang Jia Le from north-eastern China.
The cheerful 20-year-old quit his studies, borrowed $7,000 from relatives and came to Singapore to work three months ago.
The Ji Lin native who said he lost interest in studying, remarked: 'The environment here is better and we learn how to handle and sell many different kinds of products.'
He is among a growing number of front-line China workers in the service industry.
Mainland Chinese are making their presence felt not only in foodcourts and hawker centres but also in shopping malls, supermarkets and petrol stations.
Employers like these workers because they are hard-working and are willing to take jobs shunned by Singaporeans.
But the reception from others has been less than warm. In the past two weeks, four people have written to the Forum page of The Straits Times commenting on the ubiquitous China worker.
The letter writers said these workers are taking jobs away from Singaporeans and questioned their suitability, saying that many do not speak English.
One exasperated reader, Mr Murali Sharma, described how he could not get a glass of warm water from a waitress from China at a wedding banquet.
The 71-year-old retiree said: 'I can't speak Mandarin and she couldn't speak English. It was so frustrating.'
The Sunday Times visited 23 coffee shops and foodcourts in the past week and found China workers serving in at least eight eateries. At a coffee shop in Braddell, up to 10 of the 25 employees were China nationals.
Their vocabulary is typically restricted to job-related terms but sometimes it is not even sufficient for work.
Ms Sharidah Zaitun, 47, a part-time editor, has had frustrating encounters with service staff from China at food centres and shops who cannot understand her.
She said: 'Singapore has an international community and speaking English is a must.'
Even some Chinese Singaporeans have problems. Not all can speak Mandarin and they get by using dialects such as Hokkien or pasar Malay in hawker centres.
Mrs Maggie Goh, 61, a retiree who speaks only Hokkien and English, said she has resorted to pointing to items on the menus in restaurants.
Just on Friday, she was served by a waiter from China at a restaurant in Parkway Parade who could not understand English. 'He kept speaking in Mandarin even though I spoke to him in English. I ended up pointing to items on the menu. It was a struggle,' she said.
Expats in particular are having difficulty with the language barrier.
A Filipina accounts manager, Denise Iroy, 31, recounted how she once spent 15 minutes trying to explain to a salesman from China that she wanted to buy an adaptor.
'I tried to speak slowly but he still could not understand me. In the end, the manager had to come and assist me.'
Employers and labour agents said the influx of China workers came after rules were relaxed to allow them to work in the service industry.
They said service-sector companies can now hire work permit holders for up to 45 per cent of their total workforce with China workers making up 5 per cent of that.
The Manpower Ministry could not say how many China workers are in the service industry but interviews with labour agents suggest that demand is hotting up.
Agent Zen Tan said that from July to December, his agency supplied about 3,600 China workers to companies in the service sector. This month alone, demand has gone up by 20 per cent.
He said: 'A lot of these jobs require long hours and Singaporeans do not want to take them.'
Mr K.H. Hong, who owns a chain of 10 coffee shops islandwide, said he hires China workers because they are 'hard-working, willing to work overtime and eager to learn'.
It also does not hurt that a China worker's pay is $1,000, about 10 per cent lower than what a Singaporean or Malaysian earns - because he is usually inexperienced. Mr Hong has about 40 China workers in all.
Ms Shereen Leong, senior human resource executive of foodcourt operator Koufu, which has 21 outlets, said local workers are scarce in the tight labour market. The company has 29 China workers out of its pool of 503 workers.
One such person is Wu Ye Li, who has been manning the dessert stall at Koufu's Toa Payoh outlet for two years.
The 34-year-old started out serving customers but has since learnt to prepare all 15 items on the menu.
She works 12 hours a day, gets two days off a month and earns $1,000 monthly.
She admitted that the first months at work were frustrating because she could not understand her customers' orders.
'Language was a problem, the Singapore slang is different and I knew little English,' she said. But now, she can speak simple English to her customers.
Ms Julia Tay, deputy human resource manager of Isetan, hired four China workers in the past four months after interviewing them via webcam.
She thinks that they would be more committed to their jobs because of the large sums they've paid labour agents to hook them up with jobs in Singapore. The amount can be as high as $8,000.
She said: 'Though having a basic command of English is important, the willingness to learn is more important.'
The China workers are paid the same amount as the other workers - $1,100 a month. The company does not give them English language lessons.
The store, which has 600 retail assistants, plans to place up to three China workers in each of its four branches.
Bata Singapore, which employs 11 China nationals as sales staff, tackles the language problem by enrolling them in a week-long basic English course.
Ms Corrine Goh, manager of the Peninsula Plaza branch, which has two China workers, said the company preferred to hire China nationals over English-speaking Filipinos because they are cheaper.
China nationals get $1,000 a month compared to $1,500 to $1,800 for Filipinos.
She said: 'Of course language can be a problem, but the workers try their best. We hire them based on how much they are willing to learn and how far we think they can go.' She said that there have been no customer complaints.
While some customers may be unhappy with the China workers' weak grasp of English, employers said the situation is not likely to change given the tight labour market and Singaporeans' reluctance to work in the service industry.
Mr Hong Poh Heng, chairman of the Foochow Coffee Restaurant and Bar Merchants Association, said: 'They are cheap to hire and unlike Singaporeans, are willing to work long hours and on public holidays to pay back their loans.'
But 24-year-old undergraduate Rebecca Norfor has this piece of advice for employers who seem to downplay the importance of language in good service.
'If I have to tear my hair out to communicate, I will take my business elsewhere.'
mavistoh@sph.com.sg
shulis@sph.com.sg
How much is this? And please speak in English
China workers may be cheaper to hire, but their lack of English is putting off some customers
By Mavis Toh & Shuli Sudderuddin
STEP into the toy department of Isetan Scotts and chances are you will be served by Zhang Jia Le from north-eastern China.
The cheerful 20-year-old quit his studies, borrowed $7,000 from relatives and came to Singapore to work three months ago.
The Ji Lin native who said he lost interest in studying, remarked: 'The environment here is better and we learn how to handle and sell many different kinds of products.'
He is among a growing number of front-line China workers in the service industry.
Mainland Chinese are making their presence felt not only in foodcourts and hawker centres but also in shopping malls, supermarkets and petrol stations.
Employers like these workers because they are hard-working and are willing to take jobs shunned by Singaporeans.
But the reception from others has been less than warm. In the past two weeks, four people have written to the Forum page of The Straits Times commenting on the ubiquitous China worker.
The letter writers said these workers are taking jobs away from Singaporeans and questioned their suitability, saying that many do not speak English.
One exasperated reader, Mr Murali Sharma, described how he could not get a glass of warm water from a waitress from China at a wedding banquet.
The 71-year-old retiree said: 'I can't speak Mandarin and she couldn't speak English. It was so frustrating.'
The Sunday Times visited 23 coffee shops and foodcourts in the past week and found China workers serving in at least eight eateries. At a coffee shop in Braddell, up to 10 of the 25 employees were China nationals.
Their vocabulary is typically restricted to job-related terms but sometimes it is not even sufficient for work.
Ms Sharidah Zaitun, 47, a part-time editor, has had frustrating encounters with service staff from China at food centres and shops who cannot understand her.
She said: 'Singapore has an international community and speaking English is a must.'
Even some Chinese Singaporeans have problems. Not all can speak Mandarin and they get by using dialects such as Hokkien or pasar Malay in hawker centres.
Mrs Maggie Goh, 61, a retiree who speaks only Hokkien and English, said she has resorted to pointing to items on the menus in restaurants.
Just on Friday, she was served by a waiter from China at a restaurant in Parkway Parade who could not understand English. 'He kept speaking in Mandarin even though I spoke to him in English. I ended up pointing to items on the menu. It was a struggle,' she said.
Expats in particular are having difficulty with the language barrier.
A Filipina accounts manager, Denise Iroy, 31, recounted how she once spent 15 minutes trying to explain to a salesman from China that she wanted to buy an adaptor.
'I tried to speak slowly but he still could not understand me. In the end, the manager had to come and assist me.'
Employers and labour agents said the influx of China workers came after rules were relaxed to allow them to work in the service industry.
They said service-sector companies can now hire work permit holders for up to 45 per cent of their total workforce with China workers making up 5 per cent of that.
The Manpower Ministry could not say how many China workers are in the service industry but interviews with labour agents suggest that demand is hotting up.
Agent Zen Tan said that from July to December, his agency supplied about 3,600 China workers to companies in the service sector. This month alone, demand has gone up by 20 per cent.
He said: 'A lot of these jobs require long hours and Singaporeans do not want to take them.'
Mr K.H. Hong, who owns a chain of 10 coffee shops islandwide, said he hires China workers because they are 'hard-working, willing to work overtime and eager to learn'.
It also does not hurt that a China worker's pay is $1,000, about 10 per cent lower than what a Singaporean or Malaysian earns - because he is usually inexperienced. Mr Hong has about 40 China workers in all.
Ms Shereen Leong, senior human resource executive of foodcourt operator Koufu, which has 21 outlets, said local workers are scarce in the tight labour market. The company has 29 China workers out of its pool of 503 workers.
One such person is Wu Ye Li, who has been manning the dessert stall at Koufu's Toa Payoh outlet for two years.
The 34-year-old started out serving customers but has since learnt to prepare all 15 items on the menu.
She works 12 hours a day, gets two days off a month and earns $1,000 monthly.
She admitted that the first months at work were frustrating because she could not understand her customers' orders.
'Language was a problem, the Singapore slang is different and I knew little English,' she said. But now, she can speak simple English to her customers.
Ms Julia Tay, deputy human resource manager of Isetan, hired four China workers in the past four months after interviewing them via webcam.
She thinks that they would be more committed to their jobs because of the large sums they've paid labour agents to hook them up with jobs in Singapore. The amount can be as high as $8,000.
She said: 'Though having a basic command of English is important, the willingness to learn is more important.'
The China workers are paid the same amount as the other workers - $1,100 a month. The company does not give them English language lessons.
The store, which has 600 retail assistants, plans to place up to three China workers in each of its four branches.
Bata Singapore, which employs 11 China nationals as sales staff, tackles the language problem by enrolling them in a week-long basic English course.
Ms Corrine Goh, manager of the Peninsula Plaza branch, which has two China workers, said the company preferred to hire China nationals over English-speaking Filipinos because they are cheaper.
China nationals get $1,000 a month compared to $1,500 to $1,800 for Filipinos.
She said: 'Of course language can be a problem, but the workers try their best. We hire them based on how much they are willing to learn and how far we think they can go.' She said that there have been no customer complaints.
While some customers may be unhappy with the China workers' weak grasp of English, employers said the situation is not likely to change given the tight labour market and Singaporeans' reluctance to work in the service industry.
Mr Hong Poh Heng, chairman of the Foochow Coffee Restaurant and Bar Merchants Association, said: 'They are cheap to hire and unlike Singaporeans, are willing to work long hours and on public holidays to pay back their loans.'
But 24-year-old undergraduate Rebecca Norfor has this piece of advice for employers who seem to downplay the importance of language in good service.
'If I have to tear my hair out to communicate, I will take my business elsewhere.'
mavistoh@sph.com.sg
shulis@sph.com.sg
Ensuring Asia's taps flow safely and steadily - Dec 10 2007
Dec 10, 2007
WATER SUMMIT
Ensuring Asia's taps flow safely and steadily
By Tommy Koh, For The Straits Times
IN 2000, the UN convened a summit that adopted a set of ambitious Millennium Development Goals (MDG) and Millennium Development Targets (MDT). One of those targets was to reduce by half the number of people in the world without sustainable access to safe drinking water and basic sanitation by 2015.
To help advance this aim, the Asia-Pacific Water Forum (APWF) was launched in September last year. It has two aims: to provide regional countries and organisations with a common platform to articulate strategies and promote achievements in solving water problems; and to showcase the best practices in governance and innovation, and success stories that have had an impact on the lives of people, especially the poor.
The APWF convened the region's first Water Summit, in Beppu, Japan, last week. It focused on three priority themes and five result areas.
The three priority themes are: water financing and capacity development, water-related disaster management, and water for development and ecosystems.
The key result areas include developing knowledge and lessons learnt. Singapore's Public Utilities Board, the Asian Development Bank and Unesco have set up such a knowledge hub in Singapore, which has already trained more than 500 individuals.
Another area is to develop local capacity. A third is to increase outreach by the APWF to the public. The fourth area is to monitor investments and results. The fifth is to support the work of the APWF and the Water Summit.
Real impact
WHEN I was invited to join the steering committee of the Water Summit, I accepted with the hope that it would not be another photo opportunity or festival of speech-making. I exhorted the committee to be ambitious and to make this an action-oriented meeting with a real impact on the lives of the 700 million people in this region who do not have access to safe drinking water and the 1.9 billion people who do not have access to basic sanitation.
The summit was not well covered by the international media because of the attention focused on the Bali conference on climate change. This is a pity because the summit produced some very important deliverables. Let me highlight some of them.
We agreed that people's right to safe drinking water and basic sanitation is a human right and a fundamental aspect of human security. I think such a statement has never been made before.
We agreed to meet the Millennium Development Target on water and sanitation by 2015 and to aim to achieve by 2025 a situation in which every Asian has access to safe drinking water and basic sanitation. I would note here that Asean leaders at their recent summit in Singapore said they would aspire to meet the MDT on water by 2010.
We agreed to accord the highest priority to water and sanitation in our economic and development plans. We also agreed to increase substantially our allocation of resources to the water and sanitation sectors. The sad reality today is that most governments in Asia do not accord a high priority to these sectors or fund them adequately.
We agreed to improve governance, efficiency, transparency and equity in all aspects related to the management of water, particularly as it impacts on poor communities. We recognised that while women are particularly vulnerable, they are also resilient and entrepreneurial, hence, should be empowered in all water-related activities. The biggest problem facing Asia today is not technology or hardware, but these soft issues.
We agreed to take urgent action to prevent and reduce the risks of flood, drought and other water-related disasters and to bring timely relief and assistance to their victims. More people in Asia lose their lives and homes to floods and other water-related disasters than those in the rest of the world.
We agreed to support the region's vulnerable small island states in their efforts to protect lives and livelihoods from the impact of climate change. We were moved by the poignant statements of leaders of South Pacific island states that some of their low-lying isles are already submerged.
We exhorted the Bali conference to take into account the relationship between water and climate change, such as the melting of snow caps and glaciers in the Himalayas and rising sea levels, which some countries in the region are already suffering from. It should be remembered that nine of Asia's great rivers begin in the Himalayas and that nearly one billion people could be adversely affected.
We requested that the next Group of Eight Summit commit to supporting developing countries achieve their MDG and MDT on water and sanitation, and to take immediate action to support 'adoption to climate change' by developing countries.
We agreed to empower a high-level coordinating mechanism in our respective Cabinets and, where possible, to appoint a minister in charge of water to ensure that all related issues are dealt with in a holistic manner. At the moment, only two countries, Australia and Singapore, have ministers in charge of water.
We agreed to put in place a system for monitoring investments, as well as policies and projects, to ensure accountability and to make adjustments to policies and projects, if necessary.
Basic sanitation
THE United Nations has designated 2008 the International Year of Sanitation. At the summit, we held a regional launch of this international year. All participants agreed that if the water situation is deplorable, then the sanitation situation is a disaster. Nearly two billion people in this region do not have access to basic sanitation.
The lack of basic sanitation is a threat to human health, a driver of poverty and an assault on human dignity and safety. We agreed that solving the sanitation problem is not only important in itself, but also to the achievement of the other MDGs.
Singapore's own Mr Jack Sim, the founder of the World Toilet Organisation, made an impressive presentation at the meeting. He spoke of his work in Indonesia's Aceh province, rural China, India and other parts of Asia, using low-tech, non-water reliant methods of sanitation.
He also showed photos of two six-year-old boys defecating in public. One was of a boy in present-day Bangalore. The other was of himself, taken 40 years ago. The moral of the story is that with economic growth, political will, good governance and social equity, Asia can solve its sanitation problem.
Thought leader
THERE is difficult work ahead. But the success of the Water Summit shows the way forward. Singapore has been asked to consider hosting the next summit in 2009.
I hope the Singapore Government will agree to do so because, like Japan, Singapore is recognised by the region and the international community as a thought leader in water and sanitation. But much work remains to be done.
The writer is the chairman of the APWF's governing council and a member of the Water Summit's steering committee.
WATER SUMMIT
Ensuring Asia's taps flow safely and steadily
By Tommy Koh, For The Straits Times
IN 2000, the UN convened a summit that adopted a set of ambitious Millennium Development Goals (MDG) and Millennium Development Targets (MDT). One of those targets was to reduce by half the number of people in the world without sustainable access to safe drinking water and basic sanitation by 2015.
To help advance this aim, the Asia-Pacific Water Forum (APWF) was launched in September last year. It has two aims: to provide regional countries and organisations with a common platform to articulate strategies and promote achievements in solving water problems; and to showcase the best practices in governance and innovation, and success stories that have had an impact on the lives of people, especially the poor.
The APWF convened the region's first Water Summit, in Beppu, Japan, last week. It focused on three priority themes and five result areas.
The three priority themes are: water financing and capacity development, water-related disaster management, and water for development and ecosystems.
The key result areas include developing knowledge and lessons learnt. Singapore's Public Utilities Board, the Asian Development Bank and Unesco have set up such a knowledge hub in Singapore, which has already trained more than 500 individuals.
Another area is to develop local capacity. A third is to increase outreach by the APWF to the public. The fourth area is to monitor investments and results. The fifth is to support the work of the APWF and the Water Summit.
Real impact
WHEN I was invited to join the steering committee of the Water Summit, I accepted with the hope that it would not be another photo opportunity or festival of speech-making. I exhorted the committee to be ambitious and to make this an action-oriented meeting with a real impact on the lives of the 700 million people in this region who do not have access to safe drinking water and the 1.9 billion people who do not have access to basic sanitation.
The summit was not well covered by the international media because of the attention focused on the Bali conference on climate change. This is a pity because the summit produced some very important deliverables. Let me highlight some of them.
We agreed that people's right to safe drinking water and basic sanitation is a human right and a fundamental aspect of human security. I think such a statement has never been made before.
We agreed to meet the Millennium Development Target on water and sanitation by 2015 and to aim to achieve by 2025 a situation in which every Asian has access to safe drinking water and basic sanitation. I would note here that Asean leaders at their recent summit in Singapore said they would aspire to meet the MDT on water by 2010.
We agreed to accord the highest priority to water and sanitation in our economic and development plans. We also agreed to increase substantially our allocation of resources to the water and sanitation sectors. The sad reality today is that most governments in Asia do not accord a high priority to these sectors or fund them adequately.
We agreed to improve governance, efficiency, transparency and equity in all aspects related to the management of water, particularly as it impacts on poor communities. We recognised that while women are particularly vulnerable, they are also resilient and entrepreneurial, hence, should be empowered in all water-related activities. The biggest problem facing Asia today is not technology or hardware, but these soft issues.
We agreed to take urgent action to prevent and reduce the risks of flood, drought and other water-related disasters and to bring timely relief and assistance to their victims. More people in Asia lose their lives and homes to floods and other water-related disasters than those in the rest of the world.
We agreed to support the region's vulnerable small island states in their efforts to protect lives and livelihoods from the impact of climate change. We were moved by the poignant statements of leaders of South Pacific island states that some of their low-lying isles are already submerged.
We exhorted the Bali conference to take into account the relationship between water and climate change, such as the melting of snow caps and glaciers in the Himalayas and rising sea levels, which some countries in the region are already suffering from. It should be remembered that nine of Asia's great rivers begin in the Himalayas and that nearly one billion people could be adversely affected.
We requested that the next Group of Eight Summit commit to supporting developing countries achieve their MDG and MDT on water and sanitation, and to take immediate action to support 'adoption to climate change' by developing countries.
We agreed to empower a high-level coordinating mechanism in our respective Cabinets and, where possible, to appoint a minister in charge of water to ensure that all related issues are dealt with in a holistic manner. At the moment, only two countries, Australia and Singapore, have ministers in charge of water.
We agreed to put in place a system for monitoring investments, as well as policies and projects, to ensure accountability and to make adjustments to policies and projects, if necessary.
Basic sanitation
THE United Nations has designated 2008 the International Year of Sanitation. At the summit, we held a regional launch of this international year. All participants agreed that if the water situation is deplorable, then the sanitation situation is a disaster. Nearly two billion people in this region do not have access to basic sanitation.
The lack of basic sanitation is a threat to human health, a driver of poverty and an assault on human dignity and safety. We agreed that solving the sanitation problem is not only important in itself, but also to the achievement of the other MDGs.
Singapore's own Mr Jack Sim, the founder of the World Toilet Organisation, made an impressive presentation at the meeting. He spoke of his work in Indonesia's Aceh province, rural China, India and other parts of Asia, using low-tech, non-water reliant methods of sanitation.
He also showed photos of two six-year-old boys defecating in public. One was of a boy in present-day Bangalore. The other was of himself, taken 40 years ago. The moral of the story is that with economic growth, political will, good governance and social equity, Asia can solve its sanitation problem.
Thought leader
THERE is difficult work ahead. But the success of the Water Summit shows the way forward. Singapore has been asked to consider hosting the next summit in 2009.
I hope the Singapore Government will agree to do so because, like Japan, Singapore is recognised by the region and the international community as a thought leader in water and sanitation. But much work remains to be done.
The writer is the chairman of the APWF's governing council and a member of the Water Summit's steering committee.
Friday, December 7, 2007
ASEAN Charter
Dec 4, 2007
THE ASEAN CHARTER
Assertive steps on the path of progress
By K. Kesavapany
ASEAN has long adhered to certain norms and principles guiding relations among its member states and inter- state ties in general. These were first codified in the Treaty of Amity and Cooperation in South-east Asia, which Asean's leaders signed in 1976.
These norms and principles are: renunciation of the use or threat of force in global relations, peaceful settlement of inter-state disputes and non-interference in one another's internal affairs.
The Asean Charter reaffirms these norms and principles for inter-state relations and also sets norms that have to do with the relationship between the state and its citizens. Specifically, it includes among Asean's objectives democracy, good governance, the rule of law, human rights and fundamental freedoms as well as equitable access to opportunities for human development, social welfare and justice.
This is something of a breakthrough, although not of the magnitude some of us would have wished for. For the first time, Asean enshrines in a basic document principles that deal with the domestic affairs of its members. The Charter defines the bloc's values, draws up standards of behaviour and provides leaders with something to invoke and act upon in case of serious violations.
Human rights
THE Charter expresses Asean's intention to set up a human rights body. But with its terms of reference still to be drawn up, we do not yet know the mandate, composition or authority of this body.
No judicial arm or enforcement mechanism is envisioned. Asean is not about mutual accusation or the legal enforcement of commitments. As of now, the human rights body could promote the exchange of best practices and help to build capacity in Asean countries for the promotion and protection of human rights.
It could expand and make more specific the regional definition of human rights. It could do so perhaps on the basis of the statement on human rights in the Joint Communique of the 1993 Asean Ministerial Meeting.
Asean's approach to human rights has been step by step, sector by sector. For example, it has taken, at different times, collective positions on the worst forms of child labour, violence against women and the rights of migrant workers. The human rights body could monitor compliance with these commitments and initiate similar consensus on others.
These might not be the stuff of contention and confrontation that is grist for the media. NGOs, too, might not be satisfied with the pace. But in a regional group as diverse as Asean, it is the most efficacious way of proceeding on this issue at the moment.
Single market
THE Charter also reaffirms Asean's determination to integrate the regional economy into a 'single market and production base'. It reiterates the steps the bloc has agreed on to achieve this goal. For this purpose, leaders have adopted a 'blueprint' for the Asean Economic Community embodying these and additional measures, most of them with specific timelines.
They did so on the recognition that the integration of the regional economy would be the most effective way of attracting investments.
If combined with policies to ensure that people have equitable access to their nation's wealth, all this would greatly improve people's lives. It is often pointed out that South-east Asia has a population of more than 550 million people and a combined gross domestic product of US$1 trillion (S$1.4 trillion). But these figures will mean something to investors only if the regional economy was truly integrated.
According to the Charter, the blueprint and other commitments would be carried out by strengthening regional institutions and by reinforcing Asean's procedures.
Hands-on leadership
HERE, the Charter does several things. One of them is to call for Asean summits to be held twice a year instead of the current once a year. One of these meetings is to be devoted entirely to intra-Asean matters, which will enable the heads of state or government to take hands-on and focused leadership of regional affairs. The summit is also explicitly charged with making decisions on important matters, particularly in cases where consensus cannot be reached.
Another step is to create a committee of permanent representatives to take over supervision and decision- making from the Asean Standing Committee. The committee of permanent representatives would be based in Jakarta, where the Asean Secretariat is located, while the Asean Standing Committee is made up of home-based officials. With this change, supervision should be closer, management easier and decision-making faster. At least, that is the Charter's intention.
The Charter also makes explicit the secretary-general's responsibility to 'facilitate and monitor progress in the implementation of Asean agreements and decisions'. It calls for the establishment of dispute-settlement mechanisms in cases where the agreement concerned does not provide for one. The secretary-general would 'monitor' compliance with the decisions of the dispute-settlement mechanisms.
This is what we mean when we say the Charter is intended to make Asean more rules-based - strengthening the mechanisms for compliance and improving the likelihood of compliance.
The Charter, of course, provides for no coercive mechanism for enforcement. It sets up no body like the United Nations Security Council.
What the Charter banks on is the further cultivation of a culture of compliance with Asean agreements and decisions. The development of such a culture would, in turn, depend on two things. One would be the sharper consciousness of the identity of the national interest with those agreements and decisions. The other would be the domestic reforms required for the implementation of Asean agreements.
Dispute settlement
PERSONALLY, I would have liked to have seen the dispute-settlement mechanism in the Charter strengthened. Although such a mechanism exists, it has never been used. Given the acute sense of nationalism in our respective countries and the element of 'face-saving' interest in our cultures, an independent body to make pronouncements is an absolute necessity.
Let me illustrate this by the example offered by the World Trade Organisation (WTO). Before its inception, the General Agreement on Tariffs and Trade (Gatt) was a toothless organisation. Lots of agreements were signed and commitments made. But none of them was binding on all the members. As a result, Gatt lacked clout.
Those of us engaged in the Uruguay Round of trade negotiations in the mid-1990s felt this shortcoming should be remedied.
A dispute-settlement body, with panels drawn from a list of trade experts and lawyers, was established to adjudicate on trade issues purely on the basis of trade law.
While there was some uneasiness initially, the findings of the Dispute Settlement Panel have been accepted by all. In fact, it has become 'the crown in the jewel' of the WTO. It is the only world body where all countries have equal access to the law.
While it might be premature to wish for such a mechanism in Asean, it is a goal we should aspire to if we want to see it become a rules-based organisation and equipped to face the challenges of the decades ahead.
Charter ratification
OUR governments have brought forth as good a Charter as possible under present circumstances. It is now our task to bring the process forward. By 'us', I mean the respective national legislatures of Asean countries and non-governmental institutions such as think-tanks and advocacy groups.
Here, parliaments have the specific and urgent responsibility of having the Charter ratified. Any delay in ratification would cause a loss in dynamism and all the old doubts of whether Asean is anything more than a talk shop will re-emerge.
I suggest a fast-track process be used. This is a mechanism that trade negotiators use to advance their work. Simply, it means everything in a particular agreement is either endorsed or rejected. There is no scope for picking and choosing those parts which are to one's liking and calling for other parts to be rejected or re-negotiated.
Think-tanks, research institutions and advocacy groups in member countries should rise to the challenge of explaining the Charter to the people.
In the past, the tendency was to leave such matters to governments. But in this era of globalisation, when decisions taken by governments have a direct and immediate impact on the people, there is a need for the latter to be kept fully informed.
Ratification of the Asean Charter and its subsequent implementations call for collective effort on the part of governments, parliaments and the citizens of Asean. We need to move with a steadfastness of purpose if the goal of achieving an Asean community by 2020 is to be achieved.
Ambassador Kesavapany is director of the Institute of Southeast Asian Studies. This article is excerpted from a speech yesterday in Kuala Lumpur at a conference jointly organised by the Asean Inter-Parliamentary Caucus for Good Governance and the Working Group for an Asean Human Rights Mechanism.
THE ASEAN CHARTER
Assertive steps on the path of progress
By K. Kesavapany
ASEAN has long adhered to certain norms and principles guiding relations among its member states and inter- state ties in general. These were first codified in the Treaty of Amity and Cooperation in South-east Asia, which Asean's leaders signed in 1976.
These norms and principles are: renunciation of the use or threat of force in global relations, peaceful settlement of inter-state disputes and non-interference in one another's internal affairs.
The Asean Charter reaffirms these norms and principles for inter-state relations and also sets norms that have to do with the relationship between the state and its citizens. Specifically, it includes among Asean's objectives democracy, good governance, the rule of law, human rights and fundamental freedoms as well as equitable access to opportunities for human development, social welfare and justice.
This is something of a breakthrough, although not of the magnitude some of us would have wished for. For the first time, Asean enshrines in a basic document principles that deal with the domestic affairs of its members. The Charter defines the bloc's values, draws up standards of behaviour and provides leaders with something to invoke and act upon in case of serious violations.
Human rights
THE Charter expresses Asean's intention to set up a human rights body. But with its terms of reference still to be drawn up, we do not yet know the mandate, composition or authority of this body.
No judicial arm or enforcement mechanism is envisioned. Asean is not about mutual accusation or the legal enforcement of commitments. As of now, the human rights body could promote the exchange of best practices and help to build capacity in Asean countries for the promotion and protection of human rights.
It could expand and make more specific the regional definition of human rights. It could do so perhaps on the basis of the statement on human rights in the Joint Communique of the 1993 Asean Ministerial Meeting.
Asean's approach to human rights has been step by step, sector by sector. For example, it has taken, at different times, collective positions on the worst forms of child labour, violence against women and the rights of migrant workers. The human rights body could monitor compliance with these commitments and initiate similar consensus on others.
These might not be the stuff of contention and confrontation that is grist for the media. NGOs, too, might not be satisfied with the pace. But in a regional group as diverse as Asean, it is the most efficacious way of proceeding on this issue at the moment.
Single market
THE Charter also reaffirms Asean's determination to integrate the regional economy into a 'single market and production base'. It reiterates the steps the bloc has agreed on to achieve this goal. For this purpose, leaders have adopted a 'blueprint' for the Asean Economic Community embodying these and additional measures, most of them with specific timelines.
They did so on the recognition that the integration of the regional economy would be the most effective way of attracting investments.
If combined with policies to ensure that people have equitable access to their nation's wealth, all this would greatly improve people's lives. It is often pointed out that South-east Asia has a population of more than 550 million people and a combined gross domestic product of US$1 trillion (S$1.4 trillion). But these figures will mean something to investors only if the regional economy was truly integrated.
According to the Charter, the blueprint and other commitments would be carried out by strengthening regional institutions and by reinforcing Asean's procedures.
Hands-on leadership
HERE, the Charter does several things. One of them is to call for Asean summits to be held twice a year instead of the current once a year. One of these meetings is to be devoted entirely to intra-Asean matters, which will enable the heads of state or government to take hands-on and focused leadership of regional affairs. The summit is also explicitly charged with making decisions on important matters, particularly in cases where consensus cannot be reached.
Another step is to create a committee of permanent representatives to take over supervision and decision- making from the Asean Standing Committee. The committee of permanent representatives would be based in Jakarta, where the Asean Secretariat is located, while the Asean Standing Committee is made up of home-based officials. With this change, supervision should be closer, management easier and decision-making faster. At least, that is the Charter's intention.
The Charter also makes explicit the secretary-general's responsibility to 'facilitate and monitor progress in the implementation of Asean agreements and decisions'. It calls for the establishment of dispute-settlement mechanisms in cases where the agreement concerned does not provide for one. The secretary-general would 'monitor' compliance with the decisions of the dispute-settlement mechanisms.
This is what we mean when we say the Charter is intended to make Asean more rules-based - strengthening the mechanisms for compliance and improving the likelihood of compliance.
The Charter, of course, provides for no coercive mechanism for enforcement. It sets up no body like the United Nations Security Council.
What the Charter banks on is the further cultivation of a culture of compliance with Asean agreements and decisions. The development of such a culture would, in turn, depend on two things. One would be the sharper consciousness of the identity of the national interest with those agreements and decisions. The other would be the domestic reforms required for the implementation of Asean agreements.
Dispute settlement
PERSONALLY, I would have liked to have seen the dispute-settlement mechanism in the Charter strengthened. Although such a mechanism exists, it has never been used. Given the acute sense of nationalism in our respective countries and the element of 'face-saving' interest in our cultures, an independent body to make pronouncements is an absolute necessity.
Let me illustrate this by the example offered by the World Trade Organisation (WTO). Before its inception, the General Agreement on Tariffs and Trade (Gatt) was a toothless organisation. Lots of agreements were signed and commitments made. But none of them was binding on all the members. As a result, Gatt lacked clout.
Those of us engaged in the Uruguay Round of trade negotiations in the mid-1990s felt this shortcoming should be remedied.
A dispute-settlement body, with panels drawn from a list of trade experts and lawyers, was established to adjudicate on trade issues purely on the basis of trade law.
While there was some uneasiness initially, the findings of the Dispute Settlement Panel have been accepted by all. In fact, it has become 'the crown in the jewel' of the WTO. It is the only world body where all countries have equal access to the law.
While it might be premature to wish for such a mechanism in Asean, it is a goal we should aspire to if we want to see it become a rules-based organisation and equipped to face the challenges of the decades ahead.
Charter ratification
OUR governments have brought forth as good a Charter as possible under present circumstances. It is now our task to bring the process forward. By 'us', I mean the respective national legislatures of Asean countries and non-governmental institutions such as think-tanks and advocacy groups.
Here, parliaments have the specific and urgent responsibility of having the Charter ratified. Any delay in ratification would cause a loss in dynamism and all the old doubts of whether Asean is anything more than a talk shop will re-emerge.
I suggest a fast-track process be used. This is a mechanism that trade negotiators use to advance their work. Simply, it means everything in a particular agreement is either endorsed or rejected. There is no scope for picking and choosing those parts which are to one's liking and calling for other parts to be rejected or re-negotiated.
Think-tanks, research institutions and advocacy groups in member countries should rise to the challenge of explaining the Charter to the people.
In the past, the tendency was to leave such matters to governments. But in this era of globalisation, when decisions taken by governments have a direct and immediate impact on the people, there is a need for the latter to be kept fully informed.
Ratification of the Asean Charter and its subsequent implementations call for collective effort on the part of governments, parliaments and the citizens of Asean. We need to move with a steadfastness of purpose if the goal of achieving an Asean community by 2020 is to be achieved.
Ambassador Kesavapany is director of the Institute of Southeast Asian Studies. This article is excerpted from a speech yesterday in Kuala Lumpur at a conference jointly organised by the Asean Inter-Parliamentary Caucus for Good Governance and the Working Group for an Asean Human Rights Mechanism.
Russian Elections
Dec 4, 2007
Russia does itself a favour
RUSSIA was the big winner in the weekend's parliamentary election for the Duma. In voting strongly for President Vladimir Putin's party, the Russian people endorsed foremost the healing effects that the regional stability and the economic gains of the past few years are having on the national spirit. The nation that was parodied prematurely in some Western capitals as a spent force, after the reversals of the Gorbachev-Yeltsin years, will come out the stronger. Its influence as a balancing force in international affairs will grow with its new-found prestige. Incomplete results gave Mr Putin's party, United Russia, and its allies some 85 per cent of the Duma's 450 seats. The ballot was billed as a referendum on Mr Putin's policies, which it was, and more. Mr Putin has through no-nonsense rule disciplined polarising tendencies and made good use of the prosperity brought by high energy prices to revive living standards. Russia has recorded average growth rates of 7 per cent during his presidency. The stock market is buoyant, consumerism has returned. The health and longevity of Russians laid low by rampant alcoholism in the post-Soviet adjustment era have improved.
The United States and pockets of ex-Warsaw Pact resentments in the European Union are unhappy that a man they regard as an autocrat, the destroyer of nascent democratic institutions begun by Mr Mikhail Gorbachev, has been retained by the voters to be the country's eminence grise after his presidential term ends in March. These critics, especially in America, have fanciful ideas of what they think Russians should want. The voters are smarter, all glory to them. Mr Gorbachev himself said in interviews that, outside Russia, Western rose-tinted opinion saw 1990s Russia as a beacon of democratic renewal whereas, for Russians, this was a time of political turmoil and personal hardship. He thinks the US capitalised on Russia's frailities of that period and is now demonising the new Russia, and Mr Putin personally, because they challenge America's notion of supremacy.
An important outcome of the Duma vote is that Russia regains its old status as one pillar in a world grown multipolar. This will be welcomed, not least in East Asia and Latin America. A revealing postcript to the election is that the United Russia party scored big majorities in the Muslim republics of Ingushetia and Chechnya. Mr Putin does not waffle and he carries a big stick. He has proved that his prescriptions have brought results for all of Russia, across its 22 time zones. What position he will hold after he completes the maximum two terms matters little, in the circumstances.
Russia does itself a favour
RUSSIA was the big winner in the weekend's parliamentary election for the Duma. In voting strongly for President Vladimir Putin's party, the Russian people endorsed foremost the healing effects that the regional stability and the economic gains of the past few years are having on the national spirit. The nation that was parodied prematurely in some Western capitals as a spent force, after the reversals of the Gorbachev-Yeltsin years, will come out the stronger. Its influence as a balancing force in international affairs will grow with its new-found prestige. Incomplete results gave Mr Putin's party, United Russia, and its allies some 85 per cent of the Duma's 450 seats. The ballot was billed as a referendum on Mr Putin's policies, which it was, and more. Mr Putin has through no-nonsense rule disciplined polarising tendencies and made good use of the prosperity brought by high energy prices to revive living standards. Russia has recorded average growth rates of 7 per cent during his presidency. The stock market is buoyant, consumerism has returned. The health and longevity of Russians laid low by rampant alcoholism in the post-Soviet adjustment era have improved.
The United States and pockets of ex-Warsaw Pact resentments in the European Union are unhappy that a man they regard as an autocrat, the destroyer of nascent democratic institutions begun by Mr Mikhail Gorbachev, has been retained by the voters to be the country's eminence grise after his presidential term ends in March. These critics, especially in America, have fanciful ideas of what they think Russians should want. The voters are smarter, all glory to them. Mr Gorbachev himself said in interviews that, outside Russia, Western rose-tinted opinion saw 1990s Russia as a beacon of democratic renewal whereas, for Russians, this was a time of political turmoil and personal hardship. He thinks the US capitalised on Russia's frailities of that period and is now demonising the new Russia, and Mr Putin personally, because they challenge America's notion of supremacy.
An important outcome of the Duma vote is that Russia regains its old status as one pillar in a world grown multipolar. This will be welcomed, not least in East Asia and Latin America. A revealing postcript to the election is that the United Russia party scored big majorities in the Muslim republics of Ingushetia and Chechnya. Mr Putin does not waffle and he carries a big stick. He has proved that his prescriptions have brought results for all of Russia, across its 22 time zones. What position he will hold after he completes the maximum two terms matters little, in the circumstances.
Water politics and nature
Dec 5, 2007
Water politics and nature
WATER scarcity is not a mental picture people have of climate change. Rising waters are. National Geographic in an advance report drawn from a scientific journal has added an expanding tropical zone, by as much as 500km on either side of the Equator, as a new nature-warping phenomenon of global warming. It is scientists' misfortune that governments everywhere have a low attention threshold for esoterica such as this. But governments should be all ears when scientists present the issue of water shortage and consequent resource wars in graphic terms. This makes the matter of melting glaciers in the Tibetan plateau of the Himalayas, raised this week at the inaugural Asia-Pacific water conference in Japan, one more reason climate change should not be treated as the scientific equivalent of doodling. Governments need to get serious about it.
The Himalayan glaciers which feed river systems in China, South Asia and South-east Asia have been retreating at a faster rate in the last two decades, as ambient temperatures rose by 2.2 deg C, according to one study. The small print says this rate was more rapid than in the last 100 years. So what, so far? Try this for comprehension: The Himalayan glaciers hold the most plentiful supply of frozen water on Earth, aside from the polar ice caps. In summer months snow melt replenishes Asian rivers which otherwise would run low. More than two billion people in this swathe of the continent depend on the snow melt. What scientists are saying is that, at the accelerated rate of planetary warming, the seasonal rhythm of ebb and flow will sooner or later be disrupted beyond repair, with frightful results. A deluge, with disastrous flooding in China, the subcontinent and mainland South-east Asia, will be followed by a dryout of the river systems over a few decades. Droughts will follow, which will decimate crop cultivation. Almost all the Himalayan glaciers shrank in the last two decades, a doubling in quantity from the mid-20th century on. The World Wide Fund for Nature has said a quarter of the world's glaciers would be gone by 2050.
There is added danger in the sub-Himalayan region from the bursting of glacial lakes. A Japanese mountaineer, Mr Ken Noguchi, told the water conference of how Nepal and Bhutan lived in fear of burst lakes. Asian countries which have damming projects on the upper reaches of rivers, to conserve water stocks and to prevent flooding, invariably cause unhappiness to riparian states downstream. The political dimension of the water resource issue gets all the attention. Should not nations be looking at first principles?
WATER scarcity is not a mental picture people have of climate change. Rising waters are. National Geographic in an advance report drawn from a scientific journal has added an expanding tropical zone, by as much as 500km on either side of the Equator, as a new nature-warping phenomenon of global warming. It is scientists' misfortune that governments everywhere have a low attention threshold for esoterica such as this. But governments should be all ears when scientists present the issue of water shortage and consequent resource wars in graphic terms. This makes the matter of melting glaciers in the Tibetan plateau of the Himalayas, raised this week at the inaugural Asia-Pacific water conference in Japan, one more reason climate change should not be treated as the scientific equivalent of doodling. Governments need to get serious about it.
The Himalayan glaciers which feed river systems in China, South Asia and South-east Asia have been retreating at a faster rate in the last two decades, as ambient temperatures rose by 2.2 deg C, according to one study. The small print says this rate was more rapid than in the last 100 years. So what, so far? Try this for comprehension: The Himalayan glaciers hold the most plentiful supply of frozen water on Earth, aside from the polar ice caps. In summer months snow melt replenishes Asian rivers which otherwise would run low. More than two billion people in this swathe of the continent depend on the snow melt. What scientists are saying is that, at the accelerated rate of planetary warming, the seasonal rhythm of ebb and flow will sooner or later be disrupted beyond repair, with frightful results. A deluge, with disastrous flooding in China, the subcontinent and mainland South-east Asia, will be followed by a dryout of the river systems over a few decades. Droughts will follow, which will decimate crop cultivation. Almost all the Himalayan glaciers shrank in the last two decades, a doubling in quantity from the mid-20th century on. The World Wide Fund for Nature has said a quarter of the world's glaciers would be gone by 2050.
There is added danger in the sub-Himalayan region from the bursting of glacial lakes. A Japanese mountaineer, Mr Ken Noguchi, told the water conference of how Nepal and Bhutan lived in fear of burst lakes. Asian countries which have damming projects on the upper reaches of rivers, to conserve water stocks and to prevent flooding, invariably cause unhappiness to riparian states downstream. The political dimension of the water resource issue gets all the attention. Should not nations be looking at first principles?
Water politics and nature
WATER scarcity is not a mental picture people have of climate change. Rising waters are. National Geographic in an advance report drawn from a scientific journal has added an expanding tropical zone, by as much as 500km on either side of the Equator, as a new nature-warping phenomenon of global warming. It is scientists' misfortune that governments everywhere have a low attention threshold for esoterica such as this. But governments should be all ears when scientists present the issue of water shortage and consequent resource wars in graphic terms. This makes the matter of melting glaciers in the Tibetan plateau of the Himalayas, raised this week at the inaugural Asia-Pacific water conference in Japan, one more reason climate change should not be treated as the scientific equivalent of doodling. Governments need to get serious about it.
The Himalayan glaciers which feed river systems in China, South Asia and South-east Asia have been retreating at a faster rate in the last two decades, as ambient temperatures rose by 2.2 deg C, according to one study. The small print says this rate was more rapid than in the last 100 years. So what, so far? Try this for comprehension: The Himalayan glaciers hold the most plentiful supply of frozen water on Earth, aside from the polar ice caps. In summer months snow melt replenishes Asian rivers which otherwise would run low. More than two billion people in this swathe of the continent depend on the snow melt. What scientists are saying is that, at the accelerated rate of planetary warming, the seasonal rhythm of ebb and flow will sooner or later be disrupted beyond repair, with frightful results. A deluge, with disastrous flooding in China, the subcontinent and mainland South-east Asia, will be followed by a dryout of the river systems over a few decades. Droughts will follow, which will decimate crop cultivation. Almost all the Himalayan glaciers shrank in the last two decades, a doubling in quantity from the mid-20th century on. The World Wide Fund for Nature has said a quarter of the world's glaciers would be gone by 2050.
There is added danger in the sub-Himalayan region from the bursting of glacial lakes. A Japanese mountaineer, Mr Ken Noguchi, told the water conference of how Nepal and Bhutan lived in fear of burst lakes. Asian countries which have damming projects on the upper reaches of rivers, to conserve water stocks and to prevent flooding, invariably cause unhappiness to riparian states downstream. The political dimension of the water resource issue gets all the attention. Should not nations be looking at first principles?
WATER scarcity is not a mental picture people have of climate change. Rising waters are. National Geographic in an advance report drawn from a scientific journal has added an expanding tropical zone, by as much as 500km on either side of the Equator, as a new nature-warping phenomenon of global warming. It is scientists' misfortune that governments everywhere have a low attention threshold for esoterica such as this. But governments should be all ears when scientists present the issue of water shortage and consequent resource wars in graphic terms. This makes the matter of melting glaciers in the Tibetan plateau of the Himalayas, raised this week at the inaugural Asia-Pacific water conference in Japan, one more reason climate change should not be treated as the scientific equivalent of doodling. Governments need to get serious about it.
The Himalayan glaciers which feed river systems in China, South Asia and South-east Asia have been retreating at a faster rate in the last two decades, as ambient temperatures rose by 2.2 deg C, according to one study. The small print says this rate was more rapid than in the last 100 years. So what, so far? Try this for comprehension: The Himalayan glaciers hold the most plentiful supply of frozen water on Earth, aside from the polar ice caps. In summer months snow melt replenishes Asian rivers which otherwise would run low. More than two billion people in this swathe of the continent depend on the snow melt. What scientists are saying is that, at the accelerated rate of planetary warming, the seasonal rhythm of ebb and flow will sooner or later be disrupted beyond repair, with frightful results. A deluge, with disastrous flooding in China, the subcontinent and mainland South-east Asia, will be followed by a dryout of the river systems over a few decades. Droughts will follow, which will decimate crop cultivation. Almost all the Himalayan glaciers shrank in the last two decades, a doubling in quantity from the mid-20th century on. The World Wide Fund for Nature has said a quarter of the world's glaciers would be gone by 2050.
There is added danger in the sub-Himalayan region from the bursting of glacial lakes. A Japanese mountaineer, Mr Ken Noguchi, told the water conference of how Nepal and Bhutan lived in fear of burst lakes. Asian countries which have damming projects on the upper reaches of rivers, to conserve water stocks and to prevent flooding, invariably cause unhappiness to riparian states downstream. The political dimension of the water resource issue gets all the attention. Should not nations be looking at first principles?
China population to reach 1.5 billion
Dec 5, 2007
China population to reach 1.5 billion
BEIJING - THE population of China will grow to 1.5 billion people by 2033, with birth rates set to soar over the next five years, media said yesterday.
China's population, now at 1.3 billion, would reach 1.45 billion to 1.46 billion by 2020 before reaching a peak of 1.5 billion in 2033, the Beijing News said, citing Mr Zhai Zhenwu, head of a population research institute at the People's University in Beijing.
'Currently, China is adding 16 million people a year. By 2012, annual (population increase) will reach a peak of 19 million,' the Beijing News quoted Mr Zhai as saying.
China's population was increasing at a 'normal' rate, Mr Zhai said, and needed to maintain the current birth rate to ensure it would not increase too quickly or slowly.
With the world's largest population straining scarce land, water and energy resources, China has enforced rules to restrict family size since the 1970s. Rules vary but usually limit urban families to one child, or two in the countryside.
China says its policies have prevented several hundred million births and boosted prosperity, but experts have warned of a looming social time bomb from an ageing population and widening gender disparity stemming from a traditional preference for boys.
China has also vowed to impose heavier fines on wealthy citizens who are willing to pay standard penalties to have more children.
REUTERS
China population to reach 1.5 billion
BEIJING - THE population of China will grow to 1.5 billion people by 2033, with birth rates set to soar over the next five years, media said yesterday.
China's population, now at 1.3 billion, would reach 1.45 billion to 1.46 billion by 2020 before reaching a peak of 1.5 billion in 2033, the Beijing News said, citing Mr Zhai Zhenwu, head of a population research institute at the People's University in Beijing.
'Currently, China is adding 16 million people a year. By 2012, annual (population increase) will reach a peak of 19 million,' the Beijing News quoted Mr Zhai as saying.
China's population was increasing at a 'normal' rate, Mr Zhai said, and needed to maintain the current birth rate to ensure it would not increase too quickly or slowly.
With the world's largest population straining scarce land, water and energy resources, China has enforced rules to restrict family size since the 1970s. Rules vary but usually limit urban families to one child, or two in the countryside.
China says its policies have prevented several hundred million births and boosted prosperity, but experts have warned of a looming social time bomb from an ageing population and widening gender disparity stemming from a traditional preference for boys.
China has also vowed to impose heavier fines on wealthy citizens who are willing to pay standard penalties to have more children.
REUTERS
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