17 March 2012 Last updated at 00:31 GMT Share this pageEmail Print Share this page
The music accused of glorifying Naples gangsters By Alan Johnston
BBC News, Naples
It is a music video of the darkest kind. Set to a hammering beat, the song tells the story of an execution by the Camorra, as the mafia is known in the Italian city of Naples.
But there is no sympathy for the victim. Just the opposite.
The singer praises the Camorra boss who orders the killing of a "traitor".
The video shows the gangster giving the hitman his instructions, telling him who his target will be.
Then we see the assassin handing his horrified victim a note with his name on it. His Camorra death warrant.
Meanwhile the lyrics say of the boss, "It's not true that he's evil". "We have to respect him" goes the song as the hitman pulls out his pistol.
Clan Chief is sung by Nello Liberti in the Neapolitan dialect, in what is called the neo-melodic style. It is a genre of music born of the city's many tough neighbourhoods.
But there has always been concern that the neo-melodic world is too close to the Camorra, that some artists glorify the gangsters.
And prosecutors in Naples are now investigating Nello Liberti.
They have been reported as saying that his song justifies the killing of anyone who betrays the Camorra, and the singer is being accused of incitement to commit a crime.
The neo-melodic phenomenon has grown over the past 20 years.
It long ago built up a big following in and around Naples but it is increasingly popular beyond its southern heartland.
profitable recording and production industry has developed in which the Camorra is believed to be heavily involved.
And as the music becomes more influential, there would seem to be all the more need to counter its links with the underworld.
"It's a cultural battle, a phenomenon that worries us and that we are investigating," says Rosario Cantelmo, an anti-mafia prosecutor in Naples.
Given the extent to which the Camorra has a grip in the city's suburbs, it is perhaps inevitable that gangsterism might sometimes feature in the music emerging from those same streets.
But a local investigative journalist, Amalia de Simone, says that while there would be nothing wrong with reflecting some of the reality of life in Naples, going a step further and glamorising the killers has serious social consequences.
"They become very negative examples for young people who live in those areas," she says.
"When they listen to this music they think of the Camorra boss as a fascinating, cool character, an example to follow. And this is absolutely unacceptable and shameful."
'Only love songs'
But it would be completely wrong to think of the entire neo-melodic scene as being fixated by the Camorra.
Songs that openly praise mafia figures are very much confined to the fringes.
The sentiments behind the vast majority of the genre are the stuff of pop everywhere: teenage heartache, love and betrayal.
Many moody singers are guilty of nothing more than a certain kitchness.
Rosario Miraggio, one of the young rising stars, is hugely in demand at times, singing at weddings and baptisms and parties.
Sometimes he does several gigs a night.
"I only sing love songs," he says. "I prefer to avoid the social problems of the city."
Rosario says his audience of mostly teenagers, many of them girls, is not remotely interested in being sung to about the difficulties that confront the city.
Continue reading the main story
“
Start Quote
if you are aware that a big part of your market as an artist comes from that money, that is money stained with blood.”
End Quote
Luca Caiazzo
Singer
Instead he provides a little relief from all that, a chance to escape into his music.
And he takes the view that given the nature of life in Naples it is inevitable the city's performers might sometimes rub shoulders with its gangsters.
"We are just singers," he says. "We don't ask for the criminal record of the people we perform for.
"I can sing at the party of a worker, or the mayor, or of any other people. We're in Naples. it happens."
But another very different type of singer, Luca Caiazzo, takes issue with this sort of argument.
He is from the Neapolitan hip-hop scene. And when he performs under his stage name, Lucariello, he often chooses to address the city's social issues.
"If you listen to all the lyrics of neo-melodic music, you won't even find one song that speaks badly or in a critical way of the Camorra," he says.
"Yes, no one asks for the criminal record of the people you're performing for.
"But if you are aware that a big part of your market as an artist comes from that money, that is money stained with blood.
"I would ask myself some questions, you know, when you're singing at the wedding of a mafia boss or his son."
Sunday, March 18, 2012
Climate Change and using Technology to Reverse it
More sulphur trails from the stratosphere
Tiny aerosol particles in the atmosphere are perhaps the second most important way - after greenhouse gas emissions - in which human activities are changing the Earth's climate.
But changing it how?
The last major Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) report in 2007 concluded that aerosols "remain the dominant uncertainty in radiative forcing" - partially because of the direct effects the particles have, such as reflecting and scattering the Sun's energy, and partly because they can affect cloud formation.
Since that report was compiled, researchers have gone deeper into the known unknowns of aerosols - one of the main aims being to build a picture of how they behave naturally, in order that any man-made perturbation can be more accurately assessed.
The satellite era has made things easier, with instruments on board orbiting platforms such as Calipso deploying lidars and other instruments capable of sensing how much material is present at what kinds of altitudes.
But still, obtaining a global picture is not easy - and to make things worse, observations have begun in earnest during the very period in which human activities are changing the atmosphere's aerosol load.
But scientific groups are on the case.
A couple of weeks ago, we had some insights into how increased coal-burning - notably from China - could be pumping the stuff into the atmosphere so quickly as to ameliorate the temperature rise from greenhouse gas emissions.
Last week, a different research group unveiled new findings on the impact of volcanic eruptions, which pump vast amounts of particles into the air, some rising as far as the stratosphere.
The conclusion was that volcanoes may have a greater cooling effect than previously recognised.
And this week, in Science, comes a fresh analysis of aerosols in the stratosphere itself, and their impact on global temperatures.
The top line message is that the increase in concentrations over the "noughties" has partially masked temperature rise - similar to the conclusion of the research released two weeks ago, but using a radically different line of inquiry.
And climate models, the researchers say, mostly understate the impact of aerosols in the stratosphere, so may be projecting that temperatures will rise faster than they actually are.
Volcanoes have massive impacts on the stratospheric load of these tiny sulphate particles. But they're fairly short-term, producing stark spikes that decay away after a few years.
But the background aerosol concentration is also changing, the researchers find - for reasons that are not immediately obvious.
When I called one of the researchers, Ells Dutton from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (Noaa), he described the top line message as "relatively mild".
"When you account for this additional aerosol that's not been accounted for previously, that weakens the overall net forcing that existed over the 2000s.
"So the positive forcing was partially negated by this negative forcing, so you'd expect warming to have been less."
But there are also things it doesn't tell us.
The sources could be entirely natural; "but if you then ask whether some of the Chinese stuff is getting into the stratosphere, it could be - we can't sort that out."
Another question is this; if all or most of the sources are natural, what are those sources, besides vulcanism?
So, lots more to research - and one potential implication outside the realm of understanding climate change.
The cheapest of all geo-engineering techniques yet conceived involves putting multiple tonnes of this stuff into the stratosphere, where it would reflect sunlight back into space, cooling the Earth's surface.
Controversial, of course; but a number of eminent people such as UK renewable energy pioneer Stephen Salter suggest that research should begin in earnest, because they don't believe our society is going to curb greenhouse gas emissions at anything like the rate needed to slow global warming.
Clearly, if this is ever to be attempted, understanding how the particles will behave in the upper atmosphere would be of paramount importance.
David Keith from the University of Calgary, one of the leading lights in the field, told me this: "I don't see any strong implications for solar geo-engineering, [but] it may help to dispel naive assumptions that solar geo-engineering would be an all or nothing affair.
"In fact, if it ever did make sense to try it, it would make sense to try incremental additions of sulphur coupled with an intense observation campaign that looked for problems."
It's interesting to note by comparison how another geo-engineering option - iron fertilisation of the oceans - has been investigated in practice.
The mass of evidence generated over more than a decade of experimentation has told researchers a lot about the various things that are likely to determine how well it works - and the biggest trial of all, the German Lohafex project, suggested it might not work at all.
By comparison, our knowledge about sulphate aerosol injection is tiny.
The title of the Science paper - The Persistently Variable "Background" Stratospheric Aerosol Layer and Global Climate Change - is well-chosen in that it indicates both that significant research has been done, and that the findings it's produced are somewhat frustrating - and honestly given as such.
Earth experiment could buy precious time
As the UK's Royal Society prepares to publish its conclusions on whether geo-engineering can help combat climate change, physicist Alan Gadian argues that geo-engineering techniques, in particular cloud whitening, must be properly tested - and soon.
Planet Earth has become a huge science experiment, and the consequences will affect all of us.
"Global warming poses a greater threat than world terrorism and agreement must be reached within two years to mitigate global warming and minimise environmental catastrophe," Sir David King, the UK's chief scientist, wrote in 2007.
On 8 July this year, the G8 proposed a 50% reduction of global emissions of carbon dioxide by 2050. It remains to be seen whether this will be fast enough.
And carbon dioxide is not the only problem.
Methane is a greenhouse gas 21 times more potent, and the wastelands of Siberia are now releasing fountains of methane as the permafrost melts, adding to the greenhouse warming effect.
So how can geo-engineering help?
I define geo-engineering as man-made environmental change; and I would include in its definition the unprecedented burning of fossil fuels that has pumped large quantities of carbon dioxide into the atmosphere, and the massive increase in the number of farm animals with consequential methane production.
Changes in agriculture, in Africa for example, have resulted in the felling of large areas of forest and have removed the water storage capacity of the land. This has led to the rapid advance of the desert in the Sahel region.
The planet has been and is warming further. This will also lead to significant changes in precipitation, and flooding will remove prime agriculturally productive land.
Whiter clouds
In a 1990 paper in the journal Nature, John Latham, a scientist at the National Center for Atmospheric Research in Colorado, US, suggested that increasing the number of droplets in maritime layer clouds (stratocumulus) could significantly increase their reflectance.
These clouds cover a third of the ocean.
The water droplets in clouds reflect solar radiation back to space. And the numbers of droplets they contain are largely controlled by the number of cloud condensation nuclei (CCN), such as specks of dust.
Many of these nuclei are produced over the land. Land-locked clouds therefore contain many hundreds of cloud droplets per cubic centimetre, whilst clouds that form over the sea contain substantially fewer.
Generally, the more droplets that are present in a cloud, the smaller they are.
For a given mass of water in a cloud, clouds with smaller droplets tend to be whiter. This was illustrated by the Edinburgh University scientist Stephen Salter's example of glass beads in a jar - the smaller the beads, the whiter they appear.
So the proposal is to inject a fine spray of sea salt from the ocean surface into the clouds; to artificially increase the number of drops, reduce their size and increase the reflectance of the clouds, making them whiter.
This one-off increase in reflectance - and the resulting cooling - could buy us precious time; maybe as much as 25 years.
But we need numerical models and field experiments to determine the ideal size of the sea-salt nuclei.
Results from climate models show that a modest increase of nuclei in marine stratocumulus clouds could produce the desired cooling.
Further research is required, but preliminary results suggest this could compensate for up to a doubling of atmospheric carbon dioxide from pre-industrial levels.
Initial results suggest that the biggest cooling would occur in the polar regions, which is consistent with theory, and is exactly the place where cooling is most needed.
The big advantages of this scheme are that it uses sea water spray, a naturally occurring substance, and that it can be turned off immediately if there are any undesirable consequences.
The technology
Professor Salter has even suggested a design for a fleet of about 2000 of wind-powered yachts, which incorporate a sophisticated spray mechanism that is now being developed.
My colleagues and I propose to carry out detailed research of the scheme and provide an answer on its viability within five years.
There are four elements to this research:
•cloud physics modelling; there are many questions about the optimal size of sea-salt CCN and how the clouds will respond to their increased numbers
•further climate modelling
•developing and building Stephen Salter's test yachts
•a field experiment; a limited-area field experiment is needed in a region of stratocumulus clouds, and we already have advanced-stage plans with potential collaborators in the US
The cost
Initial estimates suggest that we could complete the research for approximately £6m ($10m), and produce a result that will determine if the proposed scheme is viable or not.
The research needs to be carried out, otherwise we will not know, five to 10 years from now, if we could have done anything to slow down the warming and the irreversible change in the Earth system.
It is an insignificant sum compared to the cost of doing nothing.
As James Lovelock states: "There have been seven disasters since humans came on the Earth, very similar to the one that's just about to happen."
He argues that billions of people are likely to die in the ensuing famine. "Enjoy life while you can.
"Because if you're lucky it's going to be 20 years before it hits the fan".
We can do something to provide a breathing space. That something should start now.
Dr Alan Gadian is a senior research lecturer in the School of Earth and the Environment at the University of Leeds, UK
Dr Gadian would like to extend his thanks to collaborators Alan Blyth, John Latham and Stephen Salter
The Green Room is a series of opinion articles on environmental topics running weekly on the BBC News website
Climate 'technical fix' may yield warming, not cooling
By Richard Black
Environment correspondent, BBC News, Vienna
Whitening clouds by spraying them with seawater, proposed as a "technical fix" for climate change, could do more harm than good, according to research.
Whiter clouds reflect more solar energy back into space, cooling the Earth.
But a study presented at the European Geosciences Union meeting found that using water droplets of the wrong size would lead to warming, not cooling.
One of the theory's scientific fathers said it should be possible to make sure droplets were the correct size.
Cloud whitening was originally proposed back in 1990 by John Latham, now of the University Corporation for Atmospheric Research in Boulder, US.
It has since been developed by a number of other researchers including University of Edinburgh wave energy pioneer Stephen Salter, joining a number of other "geoengineering" techniques that would attempt either to reduce solar radiation reaching earth or absorb carbon dioxide from the air.
One version envisages specially designed ships, powered by wind, operating in areas of the ocean where reflective stratocumulus clouds are scarce.
The ships would continually spray fine jets of seawater droplets into the sky, where tiny salt crystals would act as nuclei around which water vapour would condense, producing clouds or thickening them where they already exist.
It has not yet been trialled in practice, although proponents say it ought to be.
Drop kick
But Kari Alterskjaer from the University of Oslo in Norway came to the European Geosciences Union (EGU) meeting in Vienna with a cautionary tale.
Her study, using observations of clouds and a computer model of the global climate, confirmed earlier findings that if cloud whitening were to be done, the best areas would be just to the west of North and South America, and to the west of Africa.
But it concluded that about 70 times more salt would have to be carried aloft than proponents have calculated.
And using droplets of the wrong size, she found, could reduce cloud cover rather than enhancing it - leading to a net warming, not the desired cooling.
Continue reading the main story
“
Start Quote
The trouble is that clouds are very complicated; as soon as you start manipulating them in one way, there are a lot of different interactions”
End Quote
Piers Forster
University of Leeds
"If the particles are too small, they will not brighten the clouds - instead they will influence particles that are already there, and there will be competition between them," she told BBC News.
"Obviously the particle size is of crucial importance, not only for whether you get a positive or negative effect, but also whether particles can actually reach the clouds - if they're too large, they just fall to the sea."
The possibility of this technique having a warming impact has been foreseen by cloud-whitening's developers.
In a 2002 scientific paper, Dr Latham wrote: "... the overall result could be a reduction in cloud droplet concentration, with concomitant reductions in albedo and cloud longevity, ie a warming effect".
But, he argued, this possibility could be eliminated by careful design of the spray system.
Contacted after the presentation in Vienna, Professor Salter took the same line.
"I agree that the drop size has to be correct and that the correct value may vary according to local conditions," he said.
"However, I am confident that we can control drop size by adjusting the frequency of an ultrasonic pressure wave which ejects drop from micro-nozzles etched in silicon.
"We can test this at very small scale in the lab."
Professor Salter is working with engineers in Edinburgh to produce extremely fine yet robust nozzles from semiconductor sheets.
Small cuts
In an era when many climate scientists are frustrated by slow progress in reducing greenhouse gas emissions, cloud whitening has sometimes been held up as an example of a technology that could make a real difference, at least to "buy time".
The technique's prospects depend crucially on how droplet size affects reflectivity
It has been calculated that a fairly modest increase in the reflectivity of these marine clouds could balance the warming from a doubling of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere - although even proponents admit it would do nothing to combat the other major consequence of carbon emissions, ocean acidification.
One scientist at Ms Alterskjaer's presentation, having heard her outline why it might not work, commented that it was the most depressing thing he had heard in a long time.
And Piers Forster from the UK's University of Leeds, who is leading a major UK project on geoengineering techniques, suggested more research would be needed before cloud whitening could be considered for "prime time" use.
"The trouble is that clouds are very complicated; as soon as you start manipulating them in one way, there are a lot of different interactions," he said.
"We need real-world data and we need modelling that tries to simulate clouds on more appropriate scales, and that means less than 100m or so, because if you look at a deck of stratocumulus it's not one big thing, it has pockets and cells and other features.
"Far more uncertain is the idea that you'd inject a particular drop size, because it won't stay that size for long - it will spread out, and that would be uncertain."
Professor Salter, too, believes more research needs to be done, including building a prototype injector ship and studying how it works in practice.
Interviewed by the BBC late last year, he said that such research was urgently needed because there was little sign of real cuts being made in the world's greenhouse gas emissions.
Tiny aerosol particles in the atmosphere are perhaps the second most important way - after greenhouse gas emissions - in which human activities are changing the Earth's climate.
But changing it how?
The last major Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) report in 2007 concluded that aerosols "remain the dominant uncertainty in radiative forcing" - partially because of the direct effects the particles have, such as reflecting and scattering the Sun's energy, and partly because they can affect cloud formation.
Since that report was compiled, researchers have gone deeper into the known unknowns of aerosols - one of the main aims being to build a picture of how they behave naturally, in order that any man-made perturbation can be more accurately assessed.
The satellite era has made things easier, with instruments on board orbiting platforms such as Calipso deploying lidars and other instruments capable of sensing how much material is present at what kinds of altitudes.
But still, obtaining a global picture is not easy - and to make things worse, observations have begun in earnest during the very period in which human activities are changing the atmosphere's aerosol load.
But scientific groups are on the case.
A couple of weeks ago, we had some insights into how increased coal-burning - notably from China - could be pumping the stuff into the atmosphere so quickly as to ameliorate the temperature rise from greenhouse gas emissions.
Last week, a different research group unveiled new findings on the impact of volcanic eruptions, which pump vast amounts of particles into the air, some rising as far as the stratosphere.
The conclusion was that volcanoes may have a greater cooling effect than previously recognised.
And this week, in Science, comes a fresh analysis of aerosols in the stratosphere itself, and their impact on global temperatures.
The top line message is that the increase in concentrations over the "noughties" has partially masked temperature rise - similar to the conclusion of the research released two weeks ago, but using a radically different line of inquiry.
And climate models, the researchers say, mostly understate the impact of aerosols in the stratosphere, so may be projecting that temperatures will rise faster than they actually are.
Volcanoes have massive impacts on the stratospheric load of these tiny sulphate particles. But they're fairly short-term, producing stark spikes that decay away after a few years.
But the background aerosol concentration is also changing, the researchers find - for reasons that are not immediately obvious.
When I called one of the researchers, Ells Dutton from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (Noaa), he described the top line message as "relatively mild".
"When you account for this additional aerosol that's not been accounted for previously, that weakens the overall net forcing that existed over the 2000s.
"So the positive forcing was partially negated by this negative forcing, so you'd expect warming to have been less."
But there are also things it doesn't tell us.
The sources could be entirely natural; "but if you then ask whether some of the Chinese stuff is getting into the stratosphere, it could be - we can't sort that out."
Another question is this; if all or most of the sources are natural, what are those sources, besides vulcanism?
So, lots more to research - and one potential implication outside the realm of understanding climate change.
The cheapest of all geo-engineering techniques yet conceived involves putting multiple tonnes of this stuff into the stratosphere, where it would reflect sunlight back into space, cooling the Earth's surface.
Controversial, of course; but a number of eminent people such as UK renewable energy pioneer Stephen Salter suggest that research should begin in earnest, because they don't believe our society is going to curb greenhouse gas emissions at anything like the rate needed to slow global warming.
Clearly, if this is ever to be attempted, understanding how the particles will behave in the upper atmosphere would be of paramount importance.
David Keith from the University of Calgary, one of the leading lights in the field, told me this: "I don't see any strong implications for solar geo-engineering, [but] it may help to dispel naive assumptions that solar geo-engineering would be an all or nothing affair.
"In fact, if it ever did make sense to try it, it would make sense to try incremental additions of sulphur coupled with an intense observation campaign that looked for problems."
It's interesting to note by comparison how another geo-engineering option - iron fertilisation of the oceans - has been investigated in practice.
The mass of evidence generated over more than a decade of experimentation has told researchers a lot about the various things that are likely to determine how well it works - and the biggest trial of all, the German Lohafex project, suggested it might not work at all.
By comparison, our knowledge about sulphate aerosol injection is tiny.
The title of the Science paper - The Persistently Variable "Background" Stratospheric Aerosol Layer and Global Climate Change - is well-chosen in that it indicates both that significant research has been done, and that the findings it's produced are somewhat frustrating - and honestly given as such.
Earth experiment could buy precious time
As the UK's Royal Society prepares to publish its conclusions on whether geo-engineering can help combat climate change, physicist Alan Gadian argues that geo-engineering techniques, in particular cloud whitening, must be properly tested - and soon.
Planet Earth has become a huge science experiment, and the consequences will affect all of us.
"Global warming poses a greater threat than world terrorism and agreement must be reached within two years to mitigate global warming and minimise environmental catastrophe," Sir David King, the UK's chief scientist, wrote in 2007.
On 8 July this year, the G8 proposed a 50% reduction of global emissions of carbon dioxide by 2050. It remains to be seen whether this will be fast enough.
And carbon dioxide is not the only problem.
Methane is a greenhouse gas 21 times more potent, and the wastelands of Siberia are now releasing fountains of methane as the permafrost melts, adding to the greenhouse warming effect.
So how can geo-engineering help?
I define geo-engineering as man-made environmental change; and I would include in its definition the unprecedented burning of fossil fuels that has pumped large quantities of carbon dioxide into the atmosphere, and the massive increase in the number of farm animals with consequential methane production.
Changes in agriculture, in Africa for example, have resulted in the felling of large areas of forest and have removed the water storage capacity of the land. This has led to the rapid advance of the desert in the Sahel region.
The planet has been and is warming further. This will also lead to significant changes in precipitation, and flooding will remove prime agriculturally productive land.
Whiter clouds
In a 1990 paper in the journal Nature, John Latham, a scientist at the National Center for Atmospheric Research in Colorado, US, suggested that increasing the number of droplets in maritime layer clouds (stratocumulus) could significantly increase their reflectance.
These clouds cover a third of the ocean.
The water droplets in clouds reflect solar radiation back to space. And the numbers of droplets they contain are largely controlled by the number of cloud condensation nuclei (CCN), such as specks of dust.
Many of these nuclei are produced over the land. Land-locked clouds therefore contain many hundreds of cloud droplets per cubic centimetre, whilst clouds that form over the sea contain substantially fewer.
Generally, the more droplets that are present in a cloud, the smaller they are.
For a given mass of water in a cloud, clouds with smaller droplets tend to be whiter. This was illustrated by the Edinburgh University scientist Stephen Salter's example of glass beads in a jar - the smaller the beads, the whiter they appear.
So the proposal is to inject a fine spray of sea salt from the ocean surface into the clouds; to artificially increase the number of drops, reduce their size and increase the reflectance of the clouds, making them whiter.
This one-off increase in reflectance - and the resulting cooling - could buy us precious time; maybe as much as 25 years.
But we need numerical models and field experiments to determine the ideal size of the sea-salt nuclei.
Results from climate models show that a modest increase of nuclei in marine stratocumulus clouds could produce the desired cooling.
Further research is required, but preliminary results suggest this could compensate for up to a doubling of atmospheric carbon dioxide from pre-industrial levels.
Initial results suggest that the biggest cooling would occur in the polar regions, which is consistent with theory, and is exactly the place where cooling is most needed.
The big advantages of this scheme are that it uses sea water spray, a naturally occurring substance, and that it can be turned off immediately if there are any undesirable consequences.
The technology
Professor Salter has even suggested a design for a fleet of about 2000 of wind-powered yachts, which incorporate a sophisticated spray mechanism that is now being developed.
My colleagues and I propose to carry out detailed research of the scheme and provide an answer on its viability within five years.
There are four elements to this research:
•cloud physics modelling; there are many questions about the optimal size of sea-salt CCN and how the clouds will respond to their increased numbers
•further climate modelling
•developing and building Stephen Salter's test yachts
•a field experiment; a limited-area field experiment is needed in a region of stratocumulus clouds, and we already have advanced-stage plans with potential collaborators in the US
The cost
Initial estimates suggest that we could complete the research for approximately £6m ($10m), and produce a result that will determine if the proposed scheme is viable or not.
The research needs to be carried out, otherwise we will not know, five to 10 years from now, if we could have done anything to slow down the warming and the irreversible change in the Earth system.
It is an insignificant sum compared to the cost of doing nothing.
As James Lovelock states: "There have been seven disasters since humans came on the Earth, very similar to the one that's just about to happen."
He argues that billions of people are likely to die in the ensuing famine. "Enjoy life while you can.
"Because if you're lucky it's going to be 20 years before it hits the fan".
We can do something to provide a breathing space. That something should start now.
Dr Alan Gadian is a senior research lecturer in the School of Earth and the Environment at the University of Leeds, UK
Dr Gadian would like to extend his thanks to collaborators Alan Blyth, John Latham and Stephen Salter
The Green Room is a series of opinion articles on environmental topics running weekly on the BBC News website
Climate 'technical fix' may yield warming, not cooling
By Richard Black
Environment correspondent, BBC News, Vienna
Whitening clouds by spraying them with seawater, proposed as a "technical fix" for climate change, could do more harm than good, according to research.
Whiter clouds reflect more solar energy back into space, cooling the Earth.
But a study presented at the European Geosciences Union meeting found that using water droplets of the wrong size would lead to warming, not cooling.
One of the theory's scientific fathers said it should be possible to make sure droplets were the correct size.
Cloud whitening was originally proposed back in 1990 by John Latham, now of the University Corporation for Atmospheric Research in Boulder, US.
It has since been developed by a number of other researchers including University of Edinburgh wave energy pioneer Stephen Salter, joining a number of other "geoengineering" techniques that would attempt either to reduce solar radiation reaching earth or absorb carbon dioxide from the air.
One version envisages specially designed ships, powered by wind, operating in areas of the ocean where reflective stratocumulus clouds are scarce.
The ships would continually spray fine jets of seawater droplets into the sky, where tiny salt crystals would act as nuclei around which water vapour would condense, producing clouds or thickening them where they already exist.
It has not yet been trialled in practice, although proponents say it ought to be.
Drop kick
But Kari Alterskjaer from the University of Oslo in Norway came to the European Geosciences Union (EGU) meeting in Vienna with a cautionary tale.
Her study, using observations of clouds and a computer model of the global climate, confirmed earlier findings that if cloud whitening were to be done, the best areas would be just to the west of North and South America, and to the west of Africa.
But it concluded that about 70 times more salt would have to be carried aloft than proponents have calculated.
And using droplets of the wrong size, she found, could reduce cloud cover rather than enhancing it - leading to a net warming, not the desired cooling.
Continue reading the main story
“
Start Quote
The trouble is that clouds are very complicated; as soon as you start manipulating them in one way, there are a lot of different interactions”
End Quote
Piers Forster
University of Leeds
"If the particles are too small, they will not brighten the clouds - instead they will influence particles that are already there, and there will be competition between them," she told BBC News.
"Obviously the particle size is of crucial importance, not only for whether you get a positive or negative effect, but also whether particles can actually reach the clouds - if they're too large, they just fall to the sea."
The possibility of this technique having a warming impact has been foreseen by cloud-whitening's developers.
In a 2002 scientific paper, Dr Latham wrote: "... the overall result could be a reduction in cloud droplet concentration, with concomitant reductions in albedo and cloud longevity, ie a warming effect".
But, he argued, this possibility could be eliminated by careful design of the spray system.
Contacted after the presentation in Vienna, Professor Salter took the same line.
"I agree that the drop size has to be correct and that the correct value may vary according to local conditions," he said.
"However, I am confident that we can control drop size by adjusting the frequency of an ultrasonic pressure wave which ejects drop from micro-nozzles etched in silicon.
"We can test this at very small scale in the lab."
Professor Salter is working with engineers in Edinburgh to produce extremely fine yet robust nozzles from semiconductor sheets.
Small cuts
In an era when many climate scientists are frustrated by slow progress in reducing greenhouse gas emissions, cloud whitening has sometimes been held up as an example of a technology that could make a real difference, at least to "buy time".
The technique's prospects depend crucially on how droplet size affects reflectivity
It has been calculated that a fairly modest increase in the reflectivity of these marine clouds could balance the warming from a doubling of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere - although even proponents admit it would do nothing to combat the other major consequence of carbon emissions, ocean acidification.
One scientist at Ms Alterskjaer's presentation, having heard her outline why it might not work, commented that it was the most depressing thing he had heard in a long time.
And Piers Forster from the UK's University of Leeds, who is leading a major UK project on geoengineering techniques, suggested more research would be needed before cloud whitening could be considered for "prime time" use.
"The trouble is that clouds are very complicated; as soon as you start manipulating them in one way, there are a lot of different interactions," he said.
"We need real-world data and we need modelling that tries to simulate clouds on more appropriate scales, and that means less than 100m or so, because if you look at a deck of stratocumulus it's not one big thing, it has pockets and cells and other features.
"Far more uncertain is the idea that you'd inject a particular drop size, because it won't stay that size for long - it will spread out, and that would be uncertain."
Professor Salter, too, believes more research needs to be done, including building a prototype injector ship and studying how it works in practice.
Interviewed by the BBC late last year, he said that such research was urgently needed because there was little sign of real cuts being made in the world's greenhouse gas emissions.
Lessons from the death of North Korea's first leader By Humphrey Hawksley, 19 Dec 2011
When North Korea's "Great Leader", Kim Il-sung, died suddenly in July 1994, the country was immediately plunged into a power struggle that has never been resolved.
As the period of mourning began, reports emerged of troop movements in Pyongyang and other major cities as different factions of the military and the ruling party rushed to consolidate their positions.
That Kim Jong-il would succeed his father was not in doubt, but the level of his control over secretive state institutions was a complete unknown.
Negotiations with the US to dismantle North Korea's nuclear weapons' programme had broken down the previous year, and the US administration was preparing for the possibility of the collapse of the regime and - in a worst-case scenario - war.
Amid all this, the BBC was allowed in, with the invitation itself proving to be evidence of the tensions under the surface.
In the week that we were chaperoned around, open arguments broke out between minders - often in front of us.
Our first stop was a huge Pyongyang art gallery where artists were working round the clock on portraits of Kim Jong-il. Stacked up under high ceilings, they showed North Korea's new leader taking command in an array of places - farms, factories and on warships.
But one minder told me under his breath: "He is only the Dear Leader. It'll be years before they are shown."
Our next visit was to a badge-making factory where new red lapel badges of the "Dear Leader" were tumbling out of a machine. One minder explained the factory was working overtime to meet the huge demand of the people. Another insisted they would be held back until it was "safe" to be seen wearing one.
The badges were apparently related to the ruling party and therefore might not have been viewed with sympathy in places where the party and the military were at odds.
Sticking together
In a long interview with a senior party official, we were told that this was an opportunity for North Korea to open up for reform. I later heard that he had lost his particular power battle. He had been executed for corruption.
Our minders were young men, mostly educated in China, Russia, even Malta, and we never knew exactly which institutions commanded their loyalty.
Over evening drinks they would crack hilarious jokes.
One night, the conversation turned to America and the 1969 moon landing. Despite their differences, our highly intelligent guides became deadly serious, insisting that this historic event had never happened because North Korea would be the first country to send a man to the moon.
While Kim Il-sung held absolute sway over his country, under Kim Jong-il it slid deeper into poverty and further towards military confrontation.
In 2006 and 2009, it carried out nuclear tests. In March 2010, it sank a South Korean patrol boat. And in November 2010 it shelled an island near the disputed border.
Tributes and mourning over the next few days may well follow the public pattern seen in 1994.
One similarity is the delay - under the traditions of Confucian mourning - between the death of Kim Jong-il on Saturday and the announcement more than a day later. The regime kept the secret so well that the South Korean President, Lee Myung-bak, only knew about it from the television news.
Rivalry may run high underneath, but in a crisis, North Korea's secretive and ruthless leaders have a track record of sticking together.
As the period of mourning began, reports emerged of troop movements in Pyongyang and other major cities as different factions of the military and the ruling party rushed to consolidate their positions.
That Kim Jong-il would succeed his father was not in doubt, but the level of his control over secretive state institutions was a complete unknown.
Negotiations with the US to dismantle North Korea's nuclear weapons' programme had broken down the previous year, and the US administration was preparing for the possibility of the collapse of the regime and - in a worst-case scenario - war.
Amid all this, the BBC was allowed in, with the invitation itself proving to be evidence of the tensions under the surface.
In the week that we were chaperoned around, open arguments broke out between minders - often in front of us.
Our first stop was a huge Pyongyang art gallery where artists were working round the clock on portraits of Kim Jong-il. Stacked up under high ceilings, they showed North Korea's new leader taking command in an array of places - farms, factories and on warships.
But one minder told me under his breath: "He is only the Dear Leader. It'll be years before they are shown."
Our next visit was to a badge-making factory where new red lapel badges of the "Dear Leader" were tumbling out of a machine. One minder explained the factory was working overtime to meet the huge demand of the people. Another insisted they would be held back until it was "safe" to be seen wearing one.
The badges were apparently related to the ruling party and therefore might not have been viewed with sympathy in places where the party and the military were at odds.
Sticking together
In a long interview with a senior party official, we were told that this was an opportunity for North Korea to open up for reform. I later heard that he had lost his particular power battle. He had been executed for corruption.
Our minders were young men, mostly educated in China, Russia, even Malta, and we never knew exactly which institutions commanded their loyalty.
Over evening drinks they would crack hilarious jokes.
One night, the conversation turned to America and the 1969 moon landing. Despite their differences, our highly intelligent guides became deadly serious, insisting that this historic event had never happened because North Korea would be the first country to send a man to the moon.
While Kim Il-sung held absolute sway over his country, under Kim Jong-il it slid deeper into poverty and further towards military confrontation.
In 2006 and 2009, it carried out nuclear tests. In March 2010, it sank a South Korean patrol boat. And in November 2010 it shelled an island near the disputed border.
Tributes and mourning over the next few days may well follow the public pattern seen in 1994.
One similarity is the delay - under the traditions of Confucian mourning - between the death of Kim Jong-il on Saturday and the announcement more than a day later. The regime kept the secret so well that the South Korean President, Lee Myung-bak, only knew about it from the television news.
Rivalry may run high underneath, but in a crisis, North Korea's secretive and ruthless leaders have a track record of sticking together.
Osama Bin Laden 'plotted to kill Obama' before death
17 March 2012 BBC
Osama Bin Laden asked deputies to prepare an attack on Obama's presidential aircraft Continue reading the main story
Osama Bin Laden was plotting to kill US President Barack Obama, US media reports say.
The plans are said to be in papers found in the compound in Abbottabad where the al-Qaeda leader was killed by US special forces last year.
Bin Laden asked deputies to plan an attack against an aircraft carrying Mr Obama and General David Petraeus
The documents were seen by the Washington Post. There is growing anticipation in the US over government plans to publish all the papers seized at the compound when it was raided in May 2011.
Laptops, notepads and computer hard drives were also taken.
Bin Laden asked one of his deputies, Ilyas Kashmiri, to start preparing the attack.
Drone danger
"Please ask brother Ilyas to send me the steps he has taken into that work," he wrote in a 48-page note.
The US media says intelligence officials believe it is unlikely that al-Qaeda had the capacity to launch such an attack in the US, and have not seen evidence of any preparations.
Kashmiri was killed in a US air attack a month after the death of Bin Laden.
In his 48-page note Bin Laden called on al-Qaeda operatives to move away from the Pakistani tribal areas because of the constant attacks by US remotely-controlled planes.
He also debated changing al-Qaeda's name, because US officials "have largely stopped using the phrase 'the war on terror' in the context of not wanting to provoke Muslims", he said.
The Washington Post
By David Ignatius, Published: March 16
Before his death, Osama bin Laden boldly commanded his network to organize special cells in Afghanistan and Pakistan to attack the aircraft of President Obama and Gen. David H. Petraeus.
“The reason for concentrating on them,” the al-Qaeda leader explained to his top lieutenant, “is that Obama is the head of infidelity and killing him automatically will make [Vice President] Biden take over the presidency. . . . Biden is totally unprepared for that post, which will lead the U.S. into a crisis. As for Petraeus, he is the man of the hour . . . and killing him would alter the war’s path” in Afghanistan.
Administration officials said Friday that the Obama-Petraeus plot was never a serious threat.
The scheme is described in one of the documents taken from bin Laden’s compound by U.S. forces on May 2, the night he was killed. I was given an exclusive look at some of these remarkable documents by a senior administration official. They have been declassified and will be available soon to the public in their original Arabic texts and translations.
The man bin Laden hoped would carry out the attacks on Obama and Petraeus was the Pakistani terrorist Ilyas Kashmiri. “Please ask brother Ilyas to send me the steps he has taken into that work,” bin Laden wrote to his top lieutenant, Atiyah Abd al-Rahman. A month after bin Laden’s death, Kashmiri was killed in a U.S. drone attack.
The plot to target Obama was probably bluster, since al-Qaeda apparently lacked the weapons to shoot down U.S. aircraft. But it’s a chilling reminder that even when he was embattled and in hiding, bin Laden still dreamed of pulling off another spectacular terror attack against the United States.
The terrorist leader urged in a 48-page directive to Atiyah to focus “every effort that could be spent on attacks in America,” instead of operations within Muslim nations. He told Atiyah to “ask the brothers in all regions if they have a brother . . . who can operate in the U.S. [He should be able to] live there, or it should be easy for him to travel there.”
U.S. analysts don’t see evidence that these plots have materialized. “The organization lacks the ability to plan, organize and execute complex, catastrophic attacks, but the threat persists,” says a senior administration analyst who has carefully reviewed the documents.
The bin Laden who emerges from these communications is a terrorist CEO in an isolated compound, brooding that his organization has ruined its reputation by killing too many Muslims in its jihad against America. He writes of the many departed “brothers” who have been lost to U.S. drone attacks. But he’s far from the battlefield himself in his hideout in Abbottabad, Pakistan, where he seems to spend considerable time watching television.
The garbled syntax of bin Laden’s communications may result from their being dictated to several of his wives, according to the U.S. analyst. And his rambling laundry list of recommendations illustrates the problems of communicating with subordinates when it could take several months to receive an answer. The al-Qaeda leader had a “great fear of irrelevance,” the analyst believes.
Because of constant harassment and communications difficulties in Pakistan’s tribal areas, bin Laden encouraged al-Qaeda leaders to leave north and south Waziristan for more distant and remote locations.
Bin Laden had an unlikely managerial focus, for such a notorious terrorist. He discusses the need for “deputy emirs” and “acting emirs” to run regional operations when the local boss is away, and he suggests that emirs should serve two-year terms and write an “annual report to be sent to the central group detailing the local situation.” He allowed a relatively frank exchange with his subordinates, who voiced criticisms about the organization’s errors.
Though open to internal debate, bin Laden and his aides had rigid views about Muslim theology. Atiyah sent his leader a strident letter in June 2009 detailing what he saw as doctrinal errors among other jihadists.
Bin Laden’s biggest concern was al-Qaeda’s media image among Muslims. He worried that it was so tarnished that, in a draft letter probably intended for Atiyah, he argued that the organization should find a new name.
The al-Qaeda brand had become a problem, bin Laden explained, because Obama administration officials “have largely stopped using the phrase ‘the war on terror’ in the context of not wanting to provoke Muslims,” and instead promoted a war against al-Qaeda. The organization’s full name was “Qaeda al-Jihad,” bin Laden noted, but in its shorthand version, “this name reduces the feeling of Muslims that we belong to them.” He proposed 10 alternatives “that would not easily be shortened to a word that does not represent us.” His first recommendation was “Taifat al-tawhid wal-jihad,” or Monotheism and Jihad Group.
Bin Laden ruminated about “mistakes” and “miscalculations” by affiliates in Iraq and elsewhere that had killed Muslims, even in mosques. He told Atiyah to warn every emir, or regional leader, to avoid these “unnecessary civilian casualties,” which were hurting the organization.
“Making these mistakes is a great issue,” he stressed, arguing that spilling “Muslim blood” had resulted in “the alienation of most of the nation [of Islam] from the [Mujaheddin].” Local al-Qaeda leaders should “apologize and be held responsible for what happened.”
Bin Laden also criticized subordinates for linking their operations to local grievances rather than the overarching Muslim cause of Palestine. He chided his affiliate in Yemen for saying an operation was a response to U.S. bombing there. He even scolded the organizers of the spectacular December 2009 suicide attack on the CIA base in Khost, Afghanistan, for describing it as revenge for the killing of Pakistani Taliban leader Baitullah Mehsud. “It was necessary to discuss Palestine first,” lectured bin Laden.
Bin Laden’s focus on attacking the U.S. homeland led to sharp disagreements with his deputy, Ayman al-Zawahiri, who favored easier and more opportunistic attacks on U.S. forces in Iraq, Afghanistan and other areas.
Bin Laden told Atiyah that al-Qaeda’s best chance for establishing an Islamic state was Yemen, which he described as the “launching point” for attacks on the Persian Gulf oil states. “Control of these nations means control of the world,” he wrote. But he worried that the push in Yemen would come too soon, and he advised his colleagues to wait three years, if necessary, before making a decisive move. By fighting too hard in Syria in the early 1980s, he noted, the Muslim Brotherhood “lost a generation of men.”
Bin Laden and his aides hoped for big terrorist operations to commemorate the 10th anniversary of Sept. 11, 2001. They also had elaborate media plans. Adam Gadahn, a U.S.-born media adviser, even discussed in a message to his boss what would be the best television outlets for a bin Laden anniversary video.
“It should be sent for example to ABC, CBS, NBC, and CNN and maybe PBS and VOA. As for Fox News let her die in her anger,” Gadahn wrote. At another point, he said of the networks: “From a professional point of view, they are all on one level — except [Fox News] channel, which falls into the abyss as you know, and lacks objectivity, too.”
What an unintended boost for Fox, which can now boast that it is al-Qaeda’s least favorite network.
davidignatius@washpost.com
Osama Bin Laden asked deputies to prepare an attack on Obama's presidential aircraft Continue reading the main story
Osama Bin Laden was plotting to kill US President Barack Obama, US media reports say.
The plans are said to be in papers found in the compound in Abbottabad where the al-Qaeda leader was killed by US special forces last year.
Bin Laden asked deputies to plan an attack against an aircraft carrying Mr Obama and General David Petraeus
The documents were seen by the Washington Post. There is growing anticipation in the US over government plans to publish all the papers seized at the compound when it was raided in May 2011.
Laptops, notepads and computer hard drives were also taken.
Bin Laden asked one of his deputies, Ilyas Kashmiri, to start preparing the attack.
Drone danger
"Please ask brother Ilyas to send me the steps he has taken into that work," he wrote in a 48-page note.
The US media says intelligence officials believe it is unlikely that al-Qaeda had the capacity to launch such an attack in the US, and have not seen evidence of any preparations.
Kashmiri was killed in a US air attack a month after the death of Bin Laden.
In his 48-page note Bin Laden called on al-Qaeda operatives to move away from the Pakistani tribal areas because of the constant attacks by US remotely-controlled planes.
He also debated changing al-Qaeda's name, because US officials "have largely stopped using the phrase 'the war on terror' in the context of not wanting to provoke Muslims", he said.
The Washington Post
By David Ignatius, Published: March 16
Before his death, Osama bin Laden boldly commanded his network to organize special cells in Afghanistan and Pakistan to attack the aircraft of President Obama and Gen. David H. Petraeus.
“The reason for concentrating on them,” the al-Qaeda leader explained to his top lieutenant, “is that Obama is the head of infidelity and killing him automatically will make [Vice President] Biden take over the presidency. . . . Biden is totally unprepared for that post, which will lead the U.S. into a crisis. As for Petraeus, he is the man of the hour . . . and killing him would alter the war’s path” in Afghanistan.
Administration officials said Friday that the Obama-Petraeus plot was never a serious threat.
The scheme is described in one of the documents taken from bin Laden’s compound by U.S. forces on May 2, the night he was killed. I was given an exclusive look at some of these remarkable documents by a senior administration official. They have been declassified and will be available soon to the public in their original Arabic texts and translations.
The man bin Laden hoped would carry out the attacks on Obama and Petraeus was the Pakistani terrorist Ilyas Kashmiri. “Please ask brother Ilyas to send me the steps he has taken into that work,” bin Laden wrote to his top lieutenant, Atiyah Abd al-Rahman. A month after bin Laden’s death, Kashmiri was killed in a U.S. drone attack.
The plot to target Obama was probably bluster, since al-Qaeda apparently lacked the weapons to shoot down U.S. aircraft. But it’s a chilling reminder that even when he was embattled and in hiding, bin Laden still dreamed of pulling off another spectacular terror attack against the United States.
The terrorist leader urged in a 48-page directive to Atiyah to focus “every effort that could be spent on attacks in America,” instead of operations within Muslim nations. He told Atiyah to “ask the brothers in all regions if they have a brother . . . who can operate in the U.S. [He should be able to] live there, or it should be easy for him to travel there.”
U.S. analysts don’t see evidence that these plots have materialized. “The organization lacks the ability to plan, organize and execute complex, catastrophic attacks, but the threat persists,” says a senior administration analyst who has carefully reviewed the documents.
The bin Laden who emerges from these communications is a terrorist CEO in an isolated compound, brooding that his organization has ruined its reputation by killing too many Muslims in its jihad against America. He writes of the many departed “brothers” who have been lost to U.S. drone attacks. But he’s far from the battlefield himself in his hideout in Abbottabad, Pakistan, where he seems to spend considerable time watching television.
The garbled syntax of bin Laden’s communications may result from their being dictated to several of his wives, according to the U.S. analyst. And his rambling laundry list of recommendations illustrates the problems of communicating with subordinates when it could take several months to receive an answer. The al-Qaeda leader had a “great fear of irrelevance,” the analyst believes.
Because of constant harassment and communications difficulties in Pakistan’s tribal areas, bin Laden encouraged al-Qaeda leaders to leave north and south Waziristan for more distant and remote locations.
Bin Laden had an unlikely managerial focus, for such a notorious terrorist. He discusses the need for “deputy emirs” and “acting emirs” to run regional operations when the local boss is away, and he suggests that emirs should serve two-year terms and write an “annual report to be sent to the central group detailing the local situation.” He allowed a relatively frank exchange with his subordinates, who voiced criticisms about the organization’s errors.
Though open to internal debate, bin Laden and his aides had rigid views about Muslim theology. Atiyah sent his leader a strident letter in June 2009 detailing what he saw as doctrinal errors among other jihadists.
Bin Laden’s biggest concern was al-Qaeda’s media image among Muslims. He worried that it was so tarnished that, in a draft letter probably intended for Atiyah, he argued that the organization should find a new name.
The al-Qaeda brand had become a problem, bin Laden explained, because Obama administration officials “have largely stopped using the phrase ‘the war on terror’ in the context of not wanting to provoke Muslims,” and instead promoted a war against al-Qaeda. The organization’s full name was “Qaeda al-Jihad,” bin Laden noted, but in its shorthand version, “this name reduces the feeling of Muslims that we belong to them.” He proposed 10 alternatives “that would not easily be shortened to a word that does not represent us.” His first recommendation was “Taifat al-tawhid wal-jihad,” or Monotheism and Jihad Group.
Bin Laden ruminated about “mistakes” and “miscalculations” by affiliates in Iraq and elsewhere that had killed Muslims, even in mosques. He told Atiyah to warn every emir, or regional leader, to avoid these “unnecessary civilian casualties,” which were hurting the organization.
“Making these mistakes is a great issue,” he stressed, arguing that spilling “Muslim blood” had resulted in “the alienation of most of the nation [of Islam] from the [Mujaheddin].” Local al-Qaeda leaders should “apologize and be held responsible for what happened.”
Bin Laden also criticized subordinates for linking their operations to local grievances rather than the overarching Muslim cause of Palestine. He chided his affiliate in Yemen for saying an operation was a response to U.S. bombing there. He even scolded the organizers of the spectacular December 2009 suicide attack on the CIA base in Khost, Afghanistan, for describing it as revenge for the killing of Pakistani Taliban leader Baitullah Mehsud. “It was necessary to discuss Palestine first,” lectured bin Laden.
Bin Laden’s focus on attacking the U.S. homeland led to sharp disagreements with his deputy, Ayman al-Zawahiri, who favored easier and more opportunistic attacks on U.S. forces in Iraq, Afghanistan and other areas.
Bin Laden told Atiyah that al-Qaeda’s best chance for establishing an Islamic state was Yemen, which he described as the “launching point” for attacks on the Persian Gulf oil states. “Control of these nations means control of the world,” he wrote. But he worried that the push in Yemen would come too soon, and he advised his colleagues to wait three years, if necessary, before making a decisive move. By fighting too hard in Syria in the early 1980s, he noted, the Muslim Brotherhood “lost a generation of men.”
Bin Laden and his aides hoped for big terrorist operations to commemorate the 10th anniversary of Sept. 11, 2001. They also had elaborate media plans. Adam Gadahn, a U.S.-born media adviser, even discussed in a message to his boss what would be the best television outlets for a bin Laden anniversary video.
“It should be sent for example to ABC, CBS, NBC, and CNN and maybe PBS and VOA. As for Fox News let her die in her anger,” Gadahn wrote. At another point, he said of the networks: “From a professional point of view, they are all on one level — except [Fox News] channel, which falls into the abyss as you know, and lacks objectivity, too.”
What an unintended boost for Fox, which can now boast that it is al-Qaeda’s least favorite network.
davidignatius@washpost.com
Sunday, February 19, 2012
Are Singapore's poor better off?By Rebecca Lim
Are Singapore's poor better off?By Rebecca Lim
BBC News, Singapore
Wan Zaleha smiles as the smell of freshly-brewed coffee permeates the air at a non-profit centre caring for low-income and needy people in Singapore.
For the last six years, from Mondays to Saturdays, the 72-year-old has served as a volunteer, making tea and coffee for residents living in one-room apartments in the neighbourhood.
She lives in one of the one-room apartments - which average 30 sq.m and cost S$23 ($19, £12) to S$205 ($165, £104) a month to rent from the government depending on household income.
She is not employed and receives groceries worth S$70 from individual donors every month.
Singapore's Prime Minister Lee Hsien Loong said in an interview at the World Economic Forum in Davos recently that although it was ''no fun'' being poor in Singapore, people were still ''less badly off'' than the poor in other countries, including the US.
The government ensures that ''everybody starts with some chips'' and not at zero, he added, through education, health care and public housing.
He has also promised more help for low-income households in this year's budget, to be delivered at a parliament sitting on Friday.
The thought of poor people in Singapore may seem a disconnect with its reputation as an Asian financial hub, shoppers' haunt and food haven.
And there is truth to what the PM said, social workers, volunteers and professionals told the BBC, albeit with a hint of discomfort.
If one compares the poor in Singapore to those in countries such as India and China, or even the homeless in the US, it is indeed true that the situation here is not as dire, they said.
''But there are still many people in Singapore who need help,'' said Huang Jing Jing, an active community service volunteer for 30 years. ''Some of them are really struggling. You have to see it for yourself to know.''
''Certainly, poverty is not in your face here,'' said Mr Laurence Lien, chief executive officer of the non-profit National Volunteer & Philanthropy Centre and a newly-appointed Nominated Member of Parliament. ''But yes, it is happening here.''
His friend, a teacher at a primary school in a low-income neighbourhood, told him that on the first day of school half the class of six and seven-year-olds showed up without textbooks because their parents could not afford them.
Healthy income?
In Singapore, however, there is no national poverty line.
In response to a question raised in parliament in November 2011, the Acting Minister for Community Development, Youth and Sports (MCYS) said that the help that the ministry provides ''typically cover the bottom 20th percentile of households, with the flexibility to go beyond if the family's circumstances merit consideration''.
Based on a study published by the Department of Statistics in 2011, the average monthly household income, where at least one member was employed, for the bottom 10th percentile was S$1,581. That of those in the 11th to 20th percentile was S$3,135.
The poorest 1.4 billion people in the world lived on $1.25 or less a day in 2005, according to World Bank estimates published in 2008.
A US Census Bureau report said the lowest quintile of the population had an annual household income of less than $20,000 in 2010. That is comparable to Singapore's numbers.
The US measures poverty using thresholds in dollar value - if a family's income is less than its threshold, then everyone in that family would be considered ''in poverty''.
Based on data at least, the poor in Singapore does come across as being better off than those in other countries. However, the realities on the ground paint a different picture.
Public and social assistance
On paper, Ng Siew Teen has a household income of more than S$2,000. But she said her husband, who works as a driver, had only taken home a month's salary in the last three months. They have two daughters, ages five and four, and are also supporting his 12-year-old daughter from a previous marriage
Ms Ng suffers from a hereditary skin condition and was only able to undergo surgery recently when a donor paid her medical bill. Her husband lost his previous job after he was hospitalised for an operation in October 2011.
In her one-room apartment she fished out unpaid bills, including one for more than S$400 owed in school fees.
''I just want a simple life. But who doesn't want to have money in their pocket?'' she said. ''We didn't even have money to celebrate Chinese New Year.''
Families such as Ms Ng's can apply for aid from a series of public assistance schemes administered by the MCYS. These include subsidies for education as well as financial help for the elderly or disabled who are unable to work.
The ComCare Fund, established in 2005, has helped more than 190,000 through the various schemes. The fund recorded a balance of S$811m in March 2011 and received an additional S$500m in May.
Social assistance is also available, in the form of social services for vulnerable and needy individuals and families. Low-income workers can also tap on wage supplement schemes and job training programmes.
''Singapore has an extensive social safety net,'' said a ministry spokesman. ''Singaporeans enjoy subsidised housing, healthcare and education.''
The challenge, though, lies in getting the help to those who need it the most.
They are often unaware of the aid they can get, or unsure of the process to apply for help, said Zulaiha Bakar, co-ordinator at the non-profit Sunlove Marsiling centre that looks after the needs of about 500 low-income and needy people.
Her job also involves assisting them with phone calls and paperwork. ''Some people may not want to be seen receiving help so they don't come to us,'' she added.
'Still a struggle'
Apart from the ministry, there are a host of non-profit, civil and religious organisations, as well as charitable individuals offering services and donations
But one group that can fall through the cracks, though, are the low-wage-earners who are not eligible for public assistance.
The Singapore government has always maintained its message of ''self-reliance'' and stressed that it cannot adopt a welfare-state system.
Unemployment is low, at 2% and a record 14-year low last year, according to data released last month by the Ministry of Manpower (MOM). But a public housing survey in 2008 showed that a third of one-room apartment residents have no earned income.
The MOM data shows that income for the lowest quintile have increased 11% over the last five years, after taking inflation into account.
But it is still critical to address wage issues, said Mr Lien, as Singapore is ''not a cheap place to live in''.
''You can have a home; you can have shelter,'' he said. ''But it's still a struggle.''
Singapore's Economy
Population: 4.8 million (UN, 2010)
GNI per capita: US $41,430 (World Bank, 2010)
Unemployment rate: 2% average in 2011 for Singapore citizens and residents (Ministry of Manpower, 2012)
Median income (from work): S$3070 at June 2011 for Singapore citizens (Ministry of Manpower, 2012
Public housing in Singapore
The Housing and Development Board (HDB) is Singapore's public housing authority
About 80% of Singaporeans live in public housing
About 90% of them own their apartments
Various financial schemes are available to help those eligible buy a HDB apartment
Low-income families are eligible to rent 1-room and 2-room apartments from the HDB
The average size of a 1-room apartment is 30 sq.m; a 2-room apartment is 40 to 45 sq.m
Monthly rental for a 1-room apartment range from S$23 to S$205, and from S$44 to S$275 for a 2-room apartment, depending on household income and other conditions
BBC News, Singapore
Wan Zaleha smiles as the smell of freshly-brewed coffee permeates the air at a non-profit centre caring for low-income and needy people in Singapore.
For the last six years, from Mondays to Saturdays, the 72-year-old has served as a volunteer, making tea and coffee for residents living in one-room apartments in the neighbourhood.
She lives in one of the one-room apartments - which average 30 sq.m and cost S$23 ($19, £12) to S$205 ($165, £104) a month to rent from the government depending on household income.
She is not employed and receives groceries worth S$70 from individual donors every month.
Singapore's Prime Minister Lee Hsien Loong said in an interview at the World Economic Forum in Davos recently that although it was ''no fun'' being poor in Singapore, people were still ''less badly off'' than the poor in other countries, including the US.
The government ensures that ''everybody starts with some chips'' and not at zero, he added, through education, health care and public housing.
He has also promised more help for low-income households in this year's budget, to be delivered at a parliament sitting on Friday.
The thought of poor people in Singapore may seem a disconnect with its reputation as an Asian financial hub, shoppers' haunt and food haven.
And there is truth to what the PM said, social workers, volunteers and professionals told the BBC, albeit with a hint of discomfort.
If one compares the poor in Singapore to those in countries such as India and China, or even the homeless in the US, it is indeed true that the situation here is not as dire, they said.
''But there are still many people in Singapore who need help,'' said Huang Jing Jing, an active community service volunteer for 30 years. ''Some of them are really struggling. You have to see it for yourself to know.''
''Certainly, poverty is not in your face here,'' said Mr Laurence Lien, chief executive officer of the non-profit National Volunteer & Philanthropy Centre and a newly-appointed Nominated Member of Parliament. ''But yes, it is happening here.''
His friend, a teacher at a primary school in a low-income neighbourhood, told him that on the first day of school half the class of six and seven-year-olds showed up without textbooks because their parents could not afford them.
Healthy income?
In Singapore, however, there is no national poverty line.
In response to a question raised in parliament in November 2011, the Acting Minister for Community Development, Youth and Sports (MCYS) said that the help that the ministry provides ''typically cover the bottom 20th percentile of households, with the flexibility to go beyond if the family's circumstances merit consideration''.
Based on a study published by the Department of Statistics in 2011, the average monthly household income, where at least one member was employed, for the bottom 10th percentile was S$1,581. That of those in the 11th to 20th percentile was S$3,135.
The poorest 1.4 billion people in the world lived on $1.25 or less a day in 2005, according to World Bank estimates published in 2008.
A US Census Bureau report said the lowest quintile of the population had an annual household income of less than $20,000 in 2010. That is comparable to Singapore's numbers.
The US measures poverty using thresholds in dollar value - if a family's income is less than its threshold, then everyone in that family would be considered ''in poverty''.
Based on data at least, the poor in Singapore does come across as being better off than those in other countries. However, the realities on the ground paint a different picture.
Public and social assistance
On paper, Ng Siew Teen has a household income of more than S$2,000. But she said her husband, who works as a driver, had only taken home a month's salary in the last three months. They have two daughters, ages five and four, and are also supporting his 12-year-old daughter from a previous marriage
Ms Ng suffers from a hereditary skin condition and was only able to undergo surgery recently when a donor paid her medical bill. Her husband lost his previous job after he was hospitalised for an operation in October 2011.
In her one-room apartment she fished out unpaid bills, including one for more than S$400 owed in school fees.
''I just want a simple life. But who doesn't want to have money in their pocket?'' she said. ''We didn't even have money to celebrate Chinese New Year.''
Families such as Ms Ng's can apply for aid from a series of public assistance schemes administered by the MCYS. These include subsidies for education as well as financial help for the elderly or disabled who are unable to work.
The ComCare Fund, established in 2005, has helped more than 190,000 through the various schemes. The fund recorded a balance of S$811m in March 2011 and received an additional S$500m in May.
Social assistance is also available, in the form of social services for vulnerable and needy individuals and families. Low-income workers can also tap on wage supplement schemes and job training programmes.
''Singapore has an extensive social safety net,'' said a ministry spokesman. ''Singaporeans enjoy subsidised housing, healthcare and education.''
The challenge, though, lies in getting the help to those who need it the most.
They are often unaware of the aid they can get, or unsure of the process to apply for help, said Zulaiha Bakar, co-ordinator at the non-profit Sunlove Marsiling centre that looks after the needs of about 500 low-income and needy people.
Her job also involves assisting them with phone calls and paperwork. ''Some people may not want to be seen receiving help so they don't come to us,'' she added.
'Still a struggle'
Apart from the ministry, there are a host of non-profit, civil and religious organisations, as well as charitable individuals offering services and donations
But one group that can fall through the cracks, though, are the low-wage-earners who are not eligible for public assistance.
The Singapore government has always maintained its message of ''self-reliance'' and stressed that it cannot adopt a welfare-state system.
Unemployment is low, at 2% and a record 14-year low last year, according to data released last month by the Ministry of Manpower (MOM). But a public housing survey in 2008 showed that a third of one-room apartment residents have no earned income.
The MOM data shows that income for the lowest quintile have increased 11% over the last five years, after taking inflation into account.
But it is still critical to address wage issues, said Mr Lien, as Singapore is ''not a cheap place to live in''.
''You can have a home; you can have shelter,'' he said. ''But it's still a struggle.''
Singapore's Economy
Population: 4.8 million (UN, 2010)
GNI per capita: US $41,430 (World Bank, 2010)
Unemployment rate: 2% average in 2011 for Singapore citizens and residents (Ministry of Manpower, 2012)
Median income (from work): S$3070 at June 2011 for Singapore citizens (Ministry of Manpower, 2012
Public housing in Singapore
The Housing and Development Board (HDB) is Singapore's public housing authority
About 80% of Singaporeans live in public housing
About 90% of them own their apartments
Various financial schemes are available to help those eligible buy a HDB apartment
Low-income families are eligible to rent 1-room and 2-room apartments from the HDB
The average size of a 1-room apartment is 30 sq.m; a 2-room apartment is 40 to 45 sq.m
Monthly rental for a 1-room apartment range from S$23 to S$205, and from S$44 to S$275 for a 2-room apartment, depending on household income and other conditions
Wednesday, February 15, 2012
An indictment of the PAP’s policy by LKY
At an international conference held in Singapore in 2010, former Minister Mentor Lee Kuan Yew made a shocking admission that our GDP growth was based purely on foreign workers. He said, “We’ve grown in the last five years by just importing labour.” (Emphasis added)
Did Mr Lee just issue a damning indictment of his Government’s economic policy? Never one to mince his words or use them without due care, MM Lee confirmed what Singaporeans had been suspecting all along, that our GDP growth was fueled largely — Mr Lee says exclusively — by a foreign workforce.
The sheer volume of foreigners coming onto this island would give any GDP a bump. The tragedy is that growth has neither improved the quality of our economy nor added value to our workforce. Like the empty calories that alcohol provides but with little nutritional value to the body, our dependence on foreign workers boosts the GDP in the short term but does nothing to raise our productivity and skill-level.
And like alcohol, it is intoxicating and creates dependence as evidenced by the inability of the Government to wean our economy off the easy highs that exploitation of cheap labour brings.
But the GDP is what the PAP relies on. For one thing, our Ministers salaries are GDP-dependent, they reap much reward when this index goes up. This is independent of the fact that Singaporeans are forced to compete unfairly with their foreign counterparts who are able to accept much lower wage levels. Such an arrangement ensures that while the Ministers remain motivated, it crushes the morale and spirit of our workers, not to mention their livelihoods.
Such an approach does nothing to sharpen our economic competitiveness nor does it prepare us for what lies ahead.
The problem is not that the Government is blind to all this. Minister for Manpower Gan Kim Yong explained the need to reduce our reliance on a foreign workforce because this adversely impacted on productivity: “We have to ensure that our productivity improvement will catch up. We don’t have a lot of time — the other countries are improving, our competitors are improving and therefore we have to step up our efforts to do so.”
Mr Lee even announced a time frame to achieve the goal. “The next five years, we have decided we will tier down our need for foreign workers,” he promised in 2010.
The real problem is that the PAP does not have the will and the courage to go through with such its own plan because like someone who is inebriated, the party is not thinking beyond the next drink. The temptation is simply too powerful.
As quickly as the words left the MM’s mouth, the Ministry of Manpower was taking them back. In 2011 it reversed course and recruited 85,000 foreign workers, up 38 percent from 53,000 in 2010.
Our economy is drifting. Worse, the Government doesn’t have any idea on how we should proceed. The fact that we have had four recessions in the past 15 years is indicative of the quality of the PAP’s economic policy.
We went into a deep downturn following the Asian financial crisis in 1997. Before we could fully recovery, the economy plunged by -1.2 percent in 2001 and did not receive until 2003. In 2008, we were hit again and registered the steepest decline in GDP growth in our history; the GDP shrank 16.4 percent between October and December, in 2008. The next year it rebounded to 14.9 percent. But even before anyone had time to say “hurray” we were back down in a slump in 2011 and continuing into the present.
These wild economic gyrations make the roller-coaster rides at Universal Studios look tame. They tell us that the PAP is not in control. Worse, they signal a ruling party bereft of ideas and drunk on foreign labour.
Mr Lee just confirmed it.
.http://www.tremeritus.com/2012/02/15/an-indictment-of-the-paps-policy-by-lky/
Did Mr Lee just issue a damning indictment of his Government’s economic policy? Never one to mince his words or use them without due care, MM Lee confirmed what Singaporeans had been suspecting all along, that our GDP growth was fueled largely — Mr Lee says exclusively — by a foreign workforce.
The sheer volume of foreigners coming onto this island would give any GDP a bump. The tragedy is that growth has neither improved the quality of our economy nor added value to our workforce. Like the empty calories that alcohol provides but with little nutritional value to the body, our dependence on foreign workers boosts the GDP in the short term but does nothing to raise our productivity and skill-level.
And like alcohol, it is intoxicating and creates dependence as evidenced by the inability of the Government to wean our economy off the easy highs that exploitation of cheap labour brings.
But the GDP is what the PAP relies on. For one thing, our Ministers salaries are GDP-dependent, they reap much reward when this index goes up. This is independent of the fact that Singaporeans are forced to compete unfairly with their foreign counterparts who are able to accept much lower wage levels. Such an arrangement ensures that while the Ministers remain motivated, it crushes the morale and spirit of our workers, not to mention their livelihoods.
Such an approach does nothing to sharpen our economic competitiveness nor does it prepare us for what lies ahead.
The problem is not that the Government is blind to all this. Minister for Manpower Gan Kim Yong explained the need to reduce our reliance on a foreign workforce because this adversely impacted on productivity: “We have to ensure that our productivity improvement will catch up. We don’t have a lot of time — the other countries are improving, our competitors are improving and therefore we have to step up our efforts to do so.”
Mr Lee even announced a time frame to achieve the goal. “The next five years, we have decided we will tier down our need for foreign workers,” he promised in 2010.
The real problem is that the PAP does not have the will and the courage to go through with such its own plan because like someone who is inebriated, the party is not thinking beyond the next drink. The temptation is simply too powerful.
As quickly as the words left the MM’s mouth, the Ministry of Manpower was taking them back. In 2011 it reversed course and recruited 85,000 foreign workers, up 38 percent from 53,000 in 2010.
Our economy is drifting. Worse, the Government doesn’t have any idea on how we should proceed. The fact that we have had four recessions in the past 15 years is indicative of the quality of the PAP’s economic policy.
We went into a deep downturn following the Asian financial crisis in 1997. Before we could fully recovery, the economy plunged by -1.2 percent in 2001 and did not receive until 2003. In 2008, we were hit again and registered the steepest decline in GDP growth in our history; the GDP shrank 16.4 percent between October and December, in 2008. The next year it rebounded to 14.9 percent. But even before anyone had time to say “hurray” we were back down in a slump in 2011 and continuing into the present.
These wild economic gyrations make the roller-coaster rides at Universal Studios look tame. They tell us that the PAP is not in control. Worse, they signal a ruling party bereft of ideas and drunk on foreign labour.
Mr Lee just confirmed it.
.http://www.tremeritus.com/2012/02/15/an-indictment-of-the-paps-policy-by-lky/
Wednesday, February 1, 2012
World's Fastest Ageing Populations - yahoo news
The world is rapidly aging. A whopping two billion people will be 60 years and older by 2050, more than triple the number in 2000, according the World Health Organization.
This demographic change has major implications for the global economy. Some of the world's biggest economies are facing rising health-care costs, a shrinking workforce, higher pension costs and diminishing fertility rates. Many countries have already begun adapting to their increasingly aging populations by raising the retirement age, reducing pension benefits and spending more on elderly care.
We've come up with a list of countries with the starkest gap between the number of old and the number of young. We calculated the number of people aged 65 and older for every person 14 years and younger. We've also provided statistics on the percentage of the total population aged 65 and above as well as the percentage aged 14 years and below.
The population numbers are from the CIA World Factbook, while we used organizations such as the World Bank, United Nations (UN), and International Monetary Fund (IMF) to illustrate demographic trends.
So, which countries have the biggest gap between old and young? Click ahead to find out
10. Latvia
Old/young ratio: 1.251:1
65 years & over: 16.9%
0-14 years: 13.5%
With one of the world's oldest populations, Latvia is expected to lose more than a tenth of its of 2.3 million people between 2000 and 2025 , according to the World Bank.
The Baltic state is also the only country on our top 10 list that has more than double the number of elderly women (252,000) than men (122,000). In fact, women live 10 years longer than men in Latvia, which is among the highest gaps in life expectancy between genders in the European Union, according to the United Nations. On the whole, the country has seen its population decline at a rate of 0.5 percent annually from 2006 to 2010, while the percentage of people aged 65 and over has steadily increased.
Not only is Latvia facing a rapidly aging population, the country's ability to support the old took a big hit during the 2009 financial crisis, when its economy suffered the deepest recession in the EU, nosediving 18 percent.
The government had to drastically cut its budget for a $10.2 billion bailout loan from the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and EU . The austerity measures, which sparked a strong reaction from protesters (pictured), included a 10 percent cut in old-age pensions, and a massive 70 percent reduction in pensions for those still working. Pensioners account for 25 percent of Latvia's population, while the labour force makes up only 43 percent, according to former Finance Ministry State Secretary Martins Bicevskis.
Photo: Christian Kober | Getty Images
9. Slovenia
Old/young ratio: 1.253:1
65 years & over: 16.8%
0-14 years: 13.4%
The retirement age in Slovenia is currently among the lowest in the EU, at 57 for women and 58 for men.
Part of the former Yugoslav republic, which was once considered a successful model for post-communist transition, is now facing a series of credit rating downgrades as its economy struggles with a high budget deficit, political instability and an expensive state pension system. Government reform to raise Slovenia's retirement age was rejected in a referendum in June of last year, dealing a major blow to the country's plans to control its ballooning public debt. The World Bank predicts the average age for Slovenia will be 47.4 years in 2025 — among the oldest in the world.
The rapidly aging population has been a big burden on Slovenia's budget. From 2003 to 2009, the average annual increase in health expenditure was 7.1 percent, while GDP growth in the same period was 5.9 percent , according to the government figures. In 2009 alone, the nominal health expenditure grew by 7.1 percent, while Slovenia's GDP contracted 5.3 percent. Despite the increase in health-care spending, Slovenia is still below the average for OECD countries. Total health spending accounted for 9.3 percent of its GDP, compared to average of 9.5 percent in OECD countries in 2009.
Sweden. Photo: Jonathan Nackstrand | AFP | Getty Images
8. Sweden
Old/young ratio: 1.27:1
65 years & over: 19.7%
0-14 years: 15.4%
Sweden is the only country in Scandinavia, a region heralded for its quality of life, to make the top 10 list of the world's oldest populations.
The country's elderly population has steadily increased from 17 percent of the total population in 2006 to 18 percent in 2010, while its population of people aged up to 14 years has remained at 17 percent since 2005, according to the World Bank. Seniors will account for nearly 30 percent of the Swedish population by 2040, according the Global Aging Preparedness (GAP) Index. But, despite its aging population, a recent study by asset management firm Allianz Global Investors showed that Sweden has the second-most sustainable pension system out of 44 major economies, thanks to a highly developed and privately funded system which lessens the burden on public finances. Swedes contribute 18.5 percent of their income to the national pension system.
In December, the government pledged $617 million over the next few years to improve elderly care after a series of highly publicized senior care scandals in recent months. An IMF study from June 2011 has ranked Sweden as the 7th country out of the world's 20 major economies to have the best living standard for the elderly.
Austria. Photo: Westend61 | Getty Images
7. Austria
Old/young ratio: 1.3:1
65 years & over: 18.2%
0-14 years: 14%
Austria's population has the fifth-highest percentage of people aged 65 and over in the world, tied with European counterparts Sweden, Portugal, Latvia and Bulgaria, according to the World Bank.
The country's 65 and over population has gone up from 16 percent of the total population in 2006 to 18 percent in 2010, while its population of people aged 14 and under has declined from 16 percent to 15 percent in the same period. Public pension spending was 12.3 percent of Austria's GDP in 2008, over 5 percent higher than in the average of OECD countries. Austria also has only 3.5 people of working age for every person aged 65 and over, which is below the OECD average of 4.2 workers.
Men in Austria can currently retire as early as 62, while women can retire at 57. There are nearly 245,000 more women aged 65 and over in the country than men, according to the CIA Factbook. The OECD warned Austria last year that the country needs to cut government debt by curbing early retirement and eliminating early pensions. Last week, the country lost its top-notch credit rating, when it was downgraded by Standard & Poor's to AA+.
Bulgaria. Photo: Dimitar Dilkoff | AFP | Getty Images
6. Bulgaria
Old/ young ratio: 1.31:1
65 years & over: 18.2%
0-14 years: 13.9%
Bulgaria is one of three Eastern European countries to make the list of the world's 10 oldest populations. It is also one of only 16 countries in the world that saw their populations decline by more than 5,000 people between 2000 and 2005, according to the World Bank.
Bulgaria's elderly population increased from 17 percent in 2006 to 18 percent in 2010, while its young population aged up to 14 years has remained steady at 14 percent of the total population since 2003, according to the World Bank. By 2025, more than one in five Bulgarians will be older than 65, up from just 13 percent in 1990.
With its rapidly aging population, the Bulgarian government raised the official retirement age by four months starting this year for every year until it reaches 63 for women and 65 for men, up from 60 and 63 respectively. The government backtracked from plans to raise the retirement age by one year in 2012 after thousands of workers stormed through the capital in protest . For its 2.5 million workers, Bulgaria has 2.2 million retired people. It is also the poorest member of the EU, with the lowest GDP per capita, according to Eurostat.
Greece. Photo: Louisa Gouliamaki | AFP | Getty Images
5. Greece
Old/young ratio: 1.38:1
65 years & over: 19.6%
0-14 years: 14.2%
Greece has the world's weakest pension system, crippled by high levels of sovereign debt, low retirement ages and a high ratio of pensioners to workers, according a recent study by Allianz Global Investors.
The country's population of people aged 65 and over has increased from 18 percent in 2006 to 19 percent in 2010, while the group of people aged between 15 and 64 has remained at 67 percent since 2004, according to the World Bank. With nearly one-quarter of Greece's 11 million people retired, pension payments are a major burden on the economy, which is being kept afloat by the EU and IMF bailout funds.
The country made headlines last year for welfare fraud when the government revealed that thousands of dead Greeks were still receiving pensions . Data in June showed that 4,500 deceased civil servants continued to receive pension payments, costing the taxpayer $20.5 million a year. Pressured by international lenders, the country has been forced to make sweeping reforms of its pension system. Now, fewer than 10 percent of Greeks can retire before 65. In 2010, some Greeks could retire as early as 40 years of age on a reduced pension.
Italy. Photo: Giorgio Cosulich | Getty Images
4. Italy
Old/young ratio: 1.47:1
65 years & over: 20.3%
0-14 years: 13.8%
People over the age of 60 will make up a whopping 40 percent of Italy's population by 2040 compared to over 25 percent in 2007, according the GAP Index.
The country has seen its elderly population remain at 20 percent from 2005 to 2010, while the younger population of people aged 0 to 14 years hasn't grown since 1999, remaining at 14 percent. Italy's public spending on pensions is the highest in the EU, at over 16 percent of GDP compared to an average of 11 percent for the bloc.
Once considered one of the most generous pension systems in Europe, Italy's government took a hatchet to the current scheme by announcing a series of austerity measures to reform the welfare system in December . The country has one of the lowest employment rates in the region, in part because people retire long before the European average. Only 37.4 percent of Italians aged 55 to 64 still work, compared to an EU average of 47.5 percent. The new measures would see the minimum pension age for both men and women raised in stages to 66 by 2018 with incentives to keep workers employed until 70.
Germany. Photo: Thomas Grass | Getty Images
3. Germany
Old/young ratio: 1.54:1
65 years & over: 20.6%
0-14 years: 13.3%
Germany is the most populous European country and the second-biggest economy to make the list of the world's oldest populations.
The country has seen its 65 and over population increase from 19 percent in 2006 to 20 percent in 2010, while the young generation aged 0 to 14 has declined from 14 percent to 13 percent in the same period, according to the World Bank. The percentage of people aged 15 to 64 has gone down to 66 percent in 2010, compared to 69 percent two decades ago, in part explaining the labor shortage the country faces in some sectors. Eurostat predicts there will be less than two people of working age for every retired person in Germany by 2040.
While the European economic power maintains a healthy economy for now, having among the worst demographic stats in the world could lead to rising public spending and debt in years to come. Germany has nearly 2.3 million more women aged 65 and over compared to men. Despite women living longer, they also typically have smaller pension savings than men at retirement. On the whole, nearly 60 percent of Germans between the ages of 55 and 64 work, compared to just 40.7 percent of Greeks, according to EU statistics.
Japan. Photo: Ryouchin | Getty Images
2. Japan
Old/young ratio: 1.74:1
65 years & over: 22.9%
0-14 years: 13.1%
Japan is the largest economy to make the list of the world's oldest populations. It is also the only country outside of Europe in the rankings.
With the highest life expectancy in the world at 86, people aged 60 and over will account for over 43 percent of Japan's population by 2040, according to the GAP Index. Currently, one in four people are over the age of 65. On the other end, its population of people aged 15 to 64 fell four percentage points in the 10-year period from 2000 to 2010, while people aged up to 14 years fell two percentage points in the same period. Last year, the country made headlines when data showed that its population grew at its slowest pace since 1920 in the five years to 2010.
Slowing population growth indicates that Japan will find it more difficult to spread its debt burden and the rising costs of an aging society, among the working population. Japan is already the most indebted industrial nation with a public debt that is double its $5 trillion economy. Lonely elderly people have also become a growing social problem in the country. In 2010, 4.6 million elderly lived alone in Japan. The number of seniors that died at home alone increased by 61 percent between 2003 and 2010, according to official figures. In August, the government introduced measures for postmen to check up on people over 65 once a month by handing them seasonal greeting cards.
Monaco. Photo: Valery Hache | AFP | Getty Images
1. Monaco
Old/young ratio: 2.18:1
65 years & over: 26.9%
0-14 years: 2.18%
Monaco, one of the world's most densely populated countries, is home to the oldest population. It leads eight other European countries in the top 10 list. But the country is also a bit of a statistical anomaly because its status as a tax haven makes it a big draw for the wealthy and the retired rich.
With an estimated population of 30,539, the country saw its population decline in 2011 by 0.12 percent, according the to CIA Factbook. Only around 8,000 people are citizens of the city-state. The proportion of Monaco's population aged 65 and over is 26.9 percent, the highest in Western Europe, where the average is 16.5 percent, according to a 2011 study by research firm Euromonitor.
The median age of Monaco's population is 49.4 years, according to the CIA Factbook. With its older demographic, Monaco spent just 1.2 percent of its GDP in 2009 on education, according to the World Bank. In an effort to attract young professionals and entrepreneurs to boost its economy, Prince Albert launched a new consular
10. Latvia
Old/young ratio: 1.251:1
65 years & over: 16.9%
0-14 years: 13.5%
With one of the world's oldest populations, Latvia is expected to lose more than a tenth of its of 2.3 million people between 2000 and 2025 , according to the World Bank.
The Baltic state is also the only country on our top 10 list that has more than double the number of elderly women (252,000) than men (122,000). In fact, women live 10 years longer than men in Latvia, which is among the highest gaps in life expectancy between genders in the European Union, according to the United Nations. On the whole, the country has seen its population decline at a rate of 0.5 percent annually from 2006 to 2010, while the percentage of people aged 65 and over has steadily increased.
Not only is Latvia facing a rapidly aging population, the country's ability to support the old took a big hit during the 2009 financial crisis, when its economy suffered the deepest recession in the EU, nosediving 18 percent.
The government had to drastically cut its budget for a $10.2 billion bailout loan from the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and EU . The austerity measures, which sparked a strong reaction from protesters (pictured), included a 10 percent cut in old-age pensions, and a massive 70 percent reduction in pensions for those still working. Pensioners account for 25 percent of Latvia's population, while the labour force makes up only 43 percent, according to former Finance Ministry State Secretary Martins Bicevskis.
Photo: Christian Kober | Getty Images
9. Slovenia
Old/young ratio: 1.253:1
65 years & over: 16.8%
0-14 years: 13.4%
The retirement age in Slovenia is currently among the lowest in the EU, at 57 for women and 58 for men.
Part of the former Yugoslav republic, which was once considered a successful model for post-communist transition, is now facing a series of credit rating downgrades as its economy struggles with a high budget deficit, political instability and an expensive state pension system. Government reform to raise Slovenia's retirement age was rejected in a referendum in June of last year, dealing a major blow to the country's plans to control its ballooning public debt. The World Bank predicts the average age for Slovenia will be 47.4 years in 2025 — among the oldest in the world.
The rapidly aging population has been a big burden on Slovenia's budget. From 2003 to 2009, the average annual increase in health expenditure was 7.1 percent, while GDP growth in the same period was 5.9 percent , according to the government figures. In 2009 alone, the nominal health expenditure grew by 7.1 percent, while Slovenia's GDP contracted 5.3 percent. Despite the increase in health-care spending, Slovenia is still below the average for OECD countries. Total health spending accounted for 9.3 percent of its GDP, compared to average of 9.5 percent in OECD countries in 2009.
Sweden. Photo: Jonathan Nackstrand | AFP | Getty Images
8. Sweden
Old/young ratio: 1.27:1
65 years & over: 19.7%
0-14 years: 15.4%
Sweden is the only country in Scandinavia, a region heralded for its quality of life, to make the top 10 list of the world's oldest populations.
The country's elderly population has steadily increased from 17 percent of the total population in 2006 to 18 percent in 2010, while its population of people aged up to 14 years has remained at 17 percent since 2005, according to the World Bank. Seniors will account for nearly 30 percent of the Swedish population by 2040, according the Global Aging Preparedness (GAP) Index. But, despite its aging population, a recent study by asset management firm Allianz Global Investors showed that Sweden has the second-most sustainable pension system out of 44 major economies, thanks to a highly developed and privately funded system which lessens the burden on public finances. Swedes contribute 18.5 percent of their income to the national pension system.
In December, the government pledged $617 million over the next few years to improve elderly care after a series of highly publicized senior care scandals in recent months. An IMF study from June 2011 has ranked Sweden as the 7th country out of the world's 20 major economies to have the best living standard for the elderly.
Austria. Photo: Westend61 | Getty Images
7. Austria
Old/young ratio: 1.3:1
65 years & over: 18.2%
0-14 years: 14%
Austria's population has the fifth-highest percentage of people aged 65 and over in the world, tied with European counterparts Sweden, Portugal, Latvia and Bulgaria, according to the World Bank.
The country's 65 and over population has gone up from 16 percent of the total population in 2006 to 18 percent in 2010, while its population of people aged 14 and under has declined from 16 percent to 15 percent in the same period. Public pension spending was 12.3 percent of Austria's GDP in 2008, over 5 percent higher than in the average of OECD countries. Austria also has only 3.5 people of working age for every person aged 65 and over, which is below the OECD average of 4.2 workers.
Men in Austria can currently retire as early as 62, while women can retire at 57. There are nearly 245,000 more women aged 65 and over in the country than men, according to the CIA Factbook. The OECD warned Austria last year that the country needs to cut government debt by curbing early retirement and eliminating early pensions. Last week, the country lost its top-notch credit rating, when it was downgraded by Standard & Poor's to AA+.
Bulgaria. Photo: Dimitar Dilkoff | AFP | Getty Images
6. Bulgaria
Old/ young ratio: 1.31:1
65 years & over: 18.2%
0-14 years: 13.9%
Bulgaria is one of three Eastern European countries to make the list of the world's 10 oldest populations. It is also one of only 16 countries in the world that saw their populations decline by more than 5,000 people between 2000 and 2005, according to the World Bank.
Bulgaria's elderly population increased from 17 percent in 2006 to 18 percent in 2010, while its young population aged up to 14 years has remained steady at 14 percent of the total population since 2003, according to the World Bank. By 2025, more than one in five Bulgarians will be older than 65, up from just 13 percent in 1990.
With its rapidly aging population, the Bulgarian government raised the official retirement age by four months starting this year for every year until it reaches 63 for women and 65 for men, up from 60 and 63 respectively. The government backtracked from plans to raise the retirement age by one year in 2012 after thousands of workers stormed through the capital in protest . For its 2.5 million workers, Bulgaria has 2.2 million retired people. It is also the poorest member of the EU, with the lowest GDP per capita, according to Eurostat.
Greece. Photo: Louisa Gouliamaki | AFP | Getty Images
5. Greece
Old/young ratio: 1.38:1
65 years & over: 19.6%
0-14 years: 14.2%
Greece has the world's weakest pension system, crippled by high levels of sovereign debt, low retirement ages and a high ratio of pensioners to workers, according a recent study by Allianz Global Investors.
The country's population of people aged 65 and over has increased from 18 percent in 2006 to 19 percent in 2010, while the group of people aged between 15 and 64 has remained at 67 percent since 2004, according to the World Bank. With nearly one-quarter of Greece's 11 million people retired, pension payments are a major burden on the economy, which is being kept afloat by the EU and IMF bailout funds.
The country made headlines last year for welfare fraud when the government revealed that thousands of dead Greeks were still receiving pensions . Data in June showed that 4,500 deceased civil servants continued to receive pension payments, costing the taxpayer $20.5 million a year. Pressured by international lenders, the country has been forced to make sweeping reforms of its pension system. Now, fewer than 10 percent of Greeks can retire before 65. In 2010, some Greeks could retire as early as 40 years of age on a reduced pension.
Italy. Photo: Giorgio Cosulich | Getty Images
4. Italy
Old/young ratio: 1.47:1
65 years & over: 20.3%
0-14 years: 13.8%
People over the age of 60 will make up a whopping 40 percent of Italy's population by 2040 compared to over 25 percent in 2007, according the GAP Index.
The country has seen its elderly population remain at 20 percent from 2005 to 2010, while the younger population of people aged 0 to 14 years hasn't grown since 1999, remaining at 14 percent. Italy's public spending on pensions is the highest in the EU, at over 16 percent of GDP compared to an average of 11 percent for the bloc.
Once considered one of the most generous pension systems in Europe, Italy's government took a hatchet to the current scheme by announcing a series of austerity measures to reform the welfare system in December . The country has one of the lowest employment rates in the region, in part because people retire long before the European average. Only 37.4 percent of Italians aged 55 to 64 still work, compared to an EU average of 47.5 percent. The new measures would see the minimum pension age for both men and women raised in stages to 66 by 2018 with incentives to keep workers employed until 70.
Germany. Photo: Thomas Grass | Getty Images
3. Germany
Old/young ratio: 1.54:1
65 years & over: 20.6%
0-14 years: 13.3%
Germany is the most populous European country and the second-biggest economy to make the list of the world's oldest populations.
The country has seen its 65 and over population increase from 19 percent in 2006 to 20 percent in 2010, while the young generation aged 0 to 14 has declined from 14 percent to 13 percent in the same period, according to the World Bank. The percentage of people aged 15 to 64 has gone down to 66 percent in 2010, compared to 69 percent two decades ago, in part explaining the labor shortage the country faces in some sectors. Eurostat predicts there will be less than two people of working age for every retired person in Germany by 2040.
While the European economic power maintains a healthy economy for now, having among the worst demographic stats in the world could lead to rising public spending and debt in years to come. Germany has nearly 2.3 million more women aged 65 and over compared to men. Despite women living longer, they also typically have smaller pension savings than men at retirement. On the whole, nearly 60 percent of Germans between the ages of 55 and 64 work, compared to just 40.7 percent of Greeks, according to EU statistics.
Japan. Photo: Ryouchin | Getty Images
2. Japan
Old/young ratio: 1.74:1
65 years & over: 22.9%
0-14 years: 13.1%
Japan is the largest economy to make the list of the world's oldest populations. It is also the only country outside of Europe in the rankings.
With the highest life expectancy in the world at 86, people aged 60 and over will account for over 43 percent of Japan's population by 2040, according to the GAP Index. Currently, one in four people are over the age of 65. On the other end, its population of people aged 15 to 64 fell four percentage points in the 10-year period from 2000 to 2010, while people aged up to 14 years fell two percentage points in the same period. Last year, the country made headlines when data showed that its population grew at its slowest pace since 1920 in the five years to 2010.
Slowing population growth indicates that Japan will find it more difficult to spread its debt burden and the rising costs of an aging society, among the working population. Japan is already the most indebted industrial nation with a public debt that is double its $5 trillion economy. Lonely elderly people have also become a growing social problem in the country. In 2010, 4.6 million elderly lived alone in Japan. The number of seniors that died at home alone increased by 61 percent between 2003 and 2010, according to official figures. In August, the government introduced measures for postmen to check up on people over 65 once a month by handing them seasonal greeting cards.
Monaco. Photo: Valery Hache | AFP | Getty Images
1. Monaco
Old/young ratio: 2.18:1
65 years & over: 26.9%
0-14 years: 2.18%
Monaco, one of the world's most densely populated countries, is home to the oldest population. It leads eight other European countries in the top 10 list. But the country is also a bit of a statistical anomaly because its status as a tax haven makes it a big draw for the wealthy and the retired rich.
With an estimated population of 30,539, the country saw its population decline in 2011 by 0.12 percent, according the to CIA Factbook. Only around 8,000 people are citizens of the city-state. The proportion of Monaco's population aged 65 and over is 26.9 percent, the highest in Western Europe, where the average is 16.5 percent, according to a 2011 study by research firm Euromonitor.
The median age of Monaco's population is 49.4 years, according to the CIA Factbook. With its older demographic, Monaco spent just 1.2 percent of its GDP in 2009 on education, according to the World Bank. In an effort to attract young professionals and entrepreneurs to boost its economy, Prince Albert launched a new consular
service to attract British citizens into the country in 2007.
http://www.cnbc.com/id/46010334?slide=2
http://sg.finance.yahoo.com/news/countries-aging-populations-070947847.html
This demographic change has major implications for the global economy. Some of the world's biggest economies are facing rising health-care costs, a shrinking workforce, higher pension costs and diminishing fertility rates. Many countries have already begun adapting to their increasingly aging populations by raising the retirement age, reducing pension benefits and spending more on elderly care.
We've come up with a list of countries with the starkest gap between the number of old and the number of young. We calculated the number of people aged 65 and older for every person 14 years and younger. We've also provided statistics on the percentage of the total population aged 65 and above as well as the percentage aged 14 years and below.
The population numbers are from the CIA World Factbook, while we used organizations such as the World Bank, United Nations (UN), and International Monetary Fund (IMF) to illustrate demographic trends.
So, which countries have the biggest gap between old and young? Click ahead to find out
10. Latvia
Old/young ratio: 1.251:1
65 years & over: 16.9%
0-14 years: 13.5%
With one of the world's oldest populations, Latvia is expected to lose more than a tenth of its of 2.3 million people between 2000 and 2025 , according to the World Bank.
The Baltic state is also the only country on our top 10 list that has more than double the number of elderly women (252,000) than men (122,000). In fact, women live 10 years longer than men in Latvia, which is among the highest gaps in life expectancy between genders in the European Union, according to the United Nations. On the whole, the country has seen its population decline at a rate of 0.5 percent annually from 2006 to 2010, while the percentage of people aged 65 and over has steadily increased.
Not only is Latvia facing a rapidly aging population, the country's ability to support the old took a big hit during the 2009 financial crisis, when its economy suffered the deepest recession in the EU, nosediving 18 percent.
The government had to drastically cut its budget for a $10.2 billion bailout loan from the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and EU . The austerity measures, which sparked a strong reaction from protesters (pictured), included a 10 percent cut in old-age pensions, and a massive 70 percent reduction in pensions for those still working. Pensioners account for 25 percent of Latvia's population, while the labour force makes up only 43 percent, according to former Finance Ministry State Secretary Martins Bicevskis.
Photo: Christian Kober | Getty Images
9. Slovenia
Old/young ratio: 1.253:1
65 years & over: 16.8%
0-14 years: 13.4%
The retirement age in Slovenia is currently among the lowest in the EU, at 57 for women and 58 for men.
Part of the former Yugoslav republic, which was once considered a successful model for post-communist transition, is now facing a series of credit rating downgrades as its economy struggles with a high budget deficit, political instability and an expensive state pension system. Government reform to raise Slovenia's retirement age was rejected in a referendum in June of last year, dealing a major blow to the country's plans to control its ballooning public debt. The World Bank predicts the average age for Slovenia will be 47.4 years in 2025 — among the oldest in the world.
The rapidly aging population has been a big burden on Slovenia's budget. From 2003 to 2009, the average annual increase in health expenditure was 7.1 percent, while GDP growth in the same period was 5.9 percent , according to the government figures. In 2009 alone, the nominal health expenditure grew by 7.1 percent, while Slovenia's GDP contracted 5.3 percent. Despite the increase in health-care spending, Slovenia is still below the average for OECD countries. Total health spending accounted for 9.3 percent of its GDP, compared to average of 9.5 percent in OECD countries in 2009.
Sweden. Photo: Jonathan Nackstrand | AFP | Getty Images
8. Sweden
Old/young ratio: 1.27:1
65 years & over: 19.7%
0-14 years: 15.4%
Sweden is the only country in Scandinavia, a region heralded for its quality of life, to make the top 10 list of the world's oldest populations.
The country's elderly population has steadily increased from 17 percent of the total population in 2006 to 18 percent in 2010, while its population of people aged up to 14 years has remained at 17 percent since 2005, according to the World Bank. Seniors will account for nearly 30 percent of the Swedish population by 2040, according the Global Aging Preparedness (GAP) Index. But, despite its aging population, a recent study by asset management firm Allianz Global Investors showed that Sweden has the second-most sustainable pension system out of 44 major economies, thanks to a highly developed and privately funded system which lessens the burden on public finances. Swedes contribute 18.5 percent of their income to the national pension system.
In December, the government pledged $617 million over the next few years to improve elderly care after a series of highly publicized senior care scandals in recent months. An IMF study from June 2011 has ranked Sweden as the 7th country out of the world's 20 major economies to have the best living standard for the elderly.
Austria. Photo: Westend61 | Getty Images
7. Austria
Old/young ratio: 1.3:1
65 years & over: 18.2%
0-14 years: 14%
Austria's population has the fifth-highest percentage of people aged 65 and over in the world, tied with European counterparts Sweden, Portugal, Latvia and Bulgaria, according to the World Bank.
The country's 65 and over population has gone up from 16 percent of the total population in 2006 to 18 percent in 2010, while its population of people aged 14 and under has declined from 16 percent to 15 percent in the same period. Public pension spending was 12.3 percent of Austria's GDP in 2008, over 5 percent higher than in the average of OECD countries. Austria also has only 3.5 people of working age for every person aged 65 and over, which is below the OECD average of 4.2 workers.
Men in Austria can currently retire as early as 62, while women can retire at 57. There are nearly 245,000 more women aged 65 and over in the country than men, according to the CIA Factbook. The OECD warned Austria last year that the country needs to cut government debt by curbing early retirement and eliminating early pensions. Last week, the country lost its top-notch credit rating, when it was downgraded by Standard & Poor's to AA+.
Bulgaria. Photo: Dimitar Dilkoff | AFP | Getty Images
6. Bulgaria
Old/ young ratio: 1.31:1
65 years & over: 18.2%
0-14 years: 13.9%
Bulgaria is one of three Eastern European countries to make the list of the world's 10 oldest populations. It is also one of only 16 countries in the world that saw their populations decline by more than 5,000 people between 2000 and 2005, according to the World Bank.
Bulgaria's elderly population increased from 17 percent in 2006 to 18 percent in 2010, while its young population aged up to 14 years has remained steady at 14 percent of the total population since 2003, according to the World Bank. By 2025, more than one in five Bulgarians will be older than 65, up from just 13 percent in 1990.
With its rapidly aging population, the Bulgarian government raised the official retirement age by four months starting this year for every year until it reaches 63 for women and 65 for men, up from 60 and 63 respectively. The government backtracked from plans to raise the retirement age by one year in 2012 after thousands of workers stormed through the capital in protest . For its 2.5 million workers, Bulgaria has 2.2 million retired people. It is also the poorest member of the EU, with the lowest GDP per capita, according to Eurostat.
Greece. Photo: Louisa Gouliamaki | AFP | Getty Images
5. Greece
Old/young ratio: 1.38:1
65 years & over: 19.6%
0-14 years: 14.2%
Greece has the world's weakest pension system, crippled by high levels of sovereign debt, low retirement ages and a high ratio of pensioners to workers, according a recent study by Allianz Global Investors.
The country's population of people aged 65 and over has increased from 18 percent in 2006 to 19 percent in 2010, while the group of people aged between 15 and 64 has remained at 67 percent since 2004, according to the World Bank. With nearly one-quarter of Greece's 11 million people retired, pension payments are a major burden on the economy, which is being kept afloat by the EU and IMF bailout funds.
The country made headlines last year for welfare fraud when the government revealed that thousands of dead Greeks were still receiving pensions . Data in June showed that 4,500 deceased civil servants continued to receive pension payments, costing the taxpayer $20.5 million a year. Pressured by international lenders, the country has been forced to make sweeping reforms of its pension system. Now, fewer than 10 percent of Greeks can retire before 65. In 2010, some Greeks could retire as early as 40 years of age on a reduced pension.
Italy. Photo: Giorgio Cosulich | Getty Images
4. Italy
Old/young ratio: 1.47:1
65 years & over: 20.3%
0-14 years: 13.8%
People over the age of 60 will make up a whopping 40 percent of Italy's population by 2040 compared to over 25 percent in 2007, according the GAP Index.
The country has seen its elderly population remain at 20 percent from 2005 to 2010, while the younger population of people aged 0 to 14 years hasn't grown since 1999, remaining at 14 percent. Italy's public spending on pensions is the highest in the EU, at over 16 percent of GDP compared to an average of 11 percent for the bloc.
Once considered one of the most generous pension systems in Europe, Italy's government took a hatchet to the current scheme by announcing a series of austerity measures to reform the welfare system in December . The country has one of the lowest employment rates in the region, in part because people retire long before the European average. Only 37.4 percent of Italians aged 55 to 64 still work, compared to an EU average of 47.5 percent. The new measures would see the minimum pension age for both men and women raised in stages to 66 by 2018 with incentives to keep workers employed until 70.
Germany. Photo: Thomas Grass | Getty Images
3. Germany
Old/young ratio: 1.54:1
65 years & over: 20.6%
0-14 years: 13.3%
Germany is the most populous European country and the second-biggest economy to make the list of the world's oldest populations.
The country has seen its 65 and over population increase from 19 percent in 2006 to 20 percent in 2010, while the young generation aged 0 to 14 has declined from 14 percent to 13 percent in the same period, according to the World Bank. The percentage of people aged 15 to 64 has gone down to 66 percent in 2010, compared to 69 percent two decades ago, in part explaining the labor shortage the country faces in some sectors. Eurostat predicts there will be less than two people of working age for every retired person in Germany by 2040.
While the European economic power maintains a healthy economy for now, having among the worst demographic stats in the world could lead to rising public spending and debt in years to come. Germany has nearly 2.3 million more women aged 65 and over compared to men. Despite women living longer, they also typically have smaller pension savings than men at retirement. On the whole, nearly 60 percent of Germans between the ages of 55 and 64 work, compared to just 40.7 percent of Greeks, according to EU statistics.
Japan. Photo: Ryouchin | Getty Images
2. Japan
Old/young ratio: 1.74:1
65 years & over: 22.9%
0-14 years: 13.1%
Japan is the largest economy to make the list of the world's oldest populations. It is also the only country outside of Europe in the rankings.
With the highest life expectancy in the world at 86, people aged 60 and over will account for over 43 percent of Japan's population by 2040, according to the GAP Index. Currently, one in four people are over the age of 65. On the other end, its population of people aged 15 to 64 fell four percentage points in the 10-year period from 2000 to 2010, while people aged up to 14 years fell two percentage points in the same period. Last year, the country made headlines when data showed that its population grew at its slowest pace since 1920 in the five years to 2010.
Slowing population growth indicates that Japan will find it more difficult to spread its debt burden and the rising costs of an aging society, among the working population. Japan is already the most indebted industrial nation with a public debt that is double its $5 trillion economy. Lonely elderly people have also become a growing social problem in the country. In 2010, 4.6 million elderly lived alone in Japan. The number of seniors that died at home alone increased by 61 percent between 2003 and 2010, according to official figures. In August, the government introduced measures for postmen to check up on people over 65 once a month by handing them seasonal greeting cards.
Monaco. Photo: Valery Hache | AFP | Getty Images
1. Monaco
Old/young ratio: 2.18:1
65 years & over: 26.9%
0-14 years: 2.18%
Monaco, one of the world's most densely populated countries, is home to the oldest population. It leads eight other European countries in the top 10 list. But the country is also a bit of a statistical anomaly because its status as a tax haven makes it a big draw for the wealthy and the retired rich.
With an estimated population of 30,539, the country saw its population decline in 2011 by 0.12 percent, according the to CIA Factbook. Only around 8,000 people are citizens of the city-state. The proportion of Monaco's population aged 65 and over is 26.9 percent, the highest in Western Europe, where the average is 16.5 percent, according to a 2011 study by research firm Euromonitor.
The median age of Monaco's population is 49.4 years, according to the CIA Factbook. With its older demographic, Monaco spent just 1.2 percent of its GDP in 2009 on education, according to the World Bank. In an effort to attract young professionals and entrepreneurs to boost its economy, Prince Albert launched a new consular
10. Latvia
Old/young ratio: 1.251:1
65 years & over: 16.9%
0-14 years: 13.5%
With one of the world's oldest populations, Latvia is expected to lose more than a tenth of its of 2.3 million people between 2000 and 2025 , according to the World Bank.
The Baltic state is also the only country on our top 10 list that has more than double the number of elderly women (252,000) than men (122,000). In fact, women live 10 years longer than men in Latvia, which is among the highest gaps in life expectancy between genders in the European Union, according to the United Nations. On the whole, the country has seen its population decline at a rate of 0.5 percent annually from 2006 to 2010, while the percentage of people aged 65 and over has steadily increased.
Not only is Latvia facing a rapidly aging population, the country's ability to support the old took a big hit during the 2009 financial crisis, when its economy suffered the deepest recession in the EU, nosediving 18 percent.
The government had to drastically cut its budget for a $10.2 billion bailout loan from the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and EU . The austerity measures, which sparked a strong reaction from protesters (pictured), included a 10 percent cut in old-age pensions, and a massive 70 percent reduction in pensions for those still working. Pensioners account for 25 percent of Latvia's population, while the labour force makes up only 43 percent, according to former Finance Ministry State Secretary Martins Bicevskis.
Photo: Christian Kober | Getty Images
9. Slovenia
Old/young ratio: 1.253:1
65 years & over: 16.8%
0-14 years: 13.4%
The retirement age in Slovenia is currently among the lowest in the EU, at 57 for women and 58 for men.
Part of the former Yugoslav republic, which was once considered a successful model for post-communist transition, is now facing a series of credit rating downgrades as its economy struggles with a high budget deficit, political instability and an expensive state pension system. Government reform to raise Slovenia's retirement age was rejected in a referendum in June of last year, dealing a major blow to the country's plans to control its ballooning public debt. The World Bank predicts the average age for Slovenia will be 47.4 years in 2025 — among the oldest in the world.
The rapidly aging population has been a big burden on Slovenia's budget. From 2003 to 2009, the average annual increase in health expenditure was 7.1 percent, while GDP growth in the same period was 5.9 percent , according to the government figures. In 2009 alone, the nominal health expenditure grew by 7.1 percent, while Slovenia's GDP contracted 5.3 percent. Despite the increase in health-care spending, Slovenia is still below the average for OECD countries. Total health spending accounted for 9.3 percent of its GDP, compared to average of 9.5 percent in OECD countries in 2009.
Sweden. Photo: Jonathan Nackstrand | AFP | Getty Images
8. Sweden
Old/young ratio: 1.27:1
65 years & over: 19.7%
0-14 years: 15.4%
Sweden is the only country in Scandinavia, a region heralded for its quality of life, to make the top 10 list of the world's oldest populations.
The country's elderly population has steadily increased from 17 percent of the total population in 2006 to 18 percent in 2010, while its population of people aged up to 14 years has remained at 17 percent since 2005, according to the World Bank. Seniors will account for nearly 30 percent of the Swedish population by 2040, according the Global Aging Preparedness (GAP) Index. But, despite its aging population, a recent study by asset management firm Allianz Global Investors showed that Sweden has the second-most sustainable pension system out of 44 major economies, thanks to a highly developed and privately funded system which lessens the burden on public finances. Swedes contribute 18.5 percent of their income to the national pension system.
In December, the government pledged $617 million over the next few years to improve elderly care after a series of highly publicized senior care scandals in recent months. An IMF study from June 2011 has ranked Sweden as the 7th country out of the world's 20 major economies to have the best living standard for the elderly.
Austria. Photo: Westend61 | Getty Images
7. Austria
Old/young ratio: 1.3:1
65 years & over: 18.2%
0-14 years: 14%
Austria's population has the fifth-highest percentage of people aged 65 and over in the world, tied with European counterparts Sweden, Portugal, Latvia and Bulgaria, according to the World Bank.
The country's 65 and over population has gone up from 16 percent of the total population in 2006 to 18 percent in 2010, while its population of people aged 14 and under has declined from 16 percent to 15 percent in the same period. Public pension spending was 12.3 percent of Austria's GDP in 2008, over 5 percent higher than in the average of OECD countries. Austria also has only 3.5 people of working age for every person aged 65 and over, which is below the OECD average of 4.2 workers.
Men in Austria can currently retire as early as 62, while women can retire at 57. There are nearly 245,000 more women aged 65 and over in the country than men, according to the CIA Factbook. The OECD warned Austria last year that the country needs to cut government debt by curbing early retirement and eliminating early pensions. Last week, the country lost its top-notch credit rating, when it was downgraded by Standard & Poor's to AA+.
Bulgaria. Photo: Dimitar Dilkoff | AFP | Getty Images
6. Bulgaria
Old/ young ratio: 1.31:1
65 years & over: 18.2%
0-14 years: 13.9%
Bulgaria is one of three Eastern European countries to make the list of the world's 10 oldest populations. It is also one of only 16 countries in the world that saw their populations decline by more than 5,000 people between 2000 and 2005, according to the World Bank.
Bulgaria's elderly population increased from 17 percent in 2006 to 18 percent in 2010, while its young population aged up to 14 years has remained steady at 14 percent of the total population since 2003, according to the World Bank. By 2025, more than one in five Bulgarians will be older than 65, up from just 13 percent in 1990.
With its rapidly aging population, the Bulgarian government raised the official retirement age by four months starting this year for every year until it reaches 63 for women and 65 for men, up from 60 and 63 respectively. The government backtracked from plans to raise the retirement age by one year in 2012 after thousands of workers stormed through the capital in protest . For its 2.5 million workers, Bulgaria has 2.2 million retired people. It is also the poorest member of the EU, with the lowest GDP per capita, according to Eurostat.
Greece. Photo: Louisa Gouliamaki | AFP | Getty Images
5. Greece
Old/young ratio: 1.38:1
65 years & over: 19.6%
0-14 years: 14.2%
Greece has the world's weakest pension system, crippled by high levels of sovereign debt, low retirement ages and a high ratio of pensioners to workers, according a recent study by Allianz Global Investors.
The country's population of people aged 65 and over has increased from 18 percent in 2006 to 19 percent in 2010, while the group of people aged between 15 and 64 has remained at 67 percent since 2004, according to the World Bank. With nearly one-quarter of Greece's 11 million people retired, pension payments are a major burden on the economy, which is being kept afloat by the EU and IMF bailout funds.
The country made headlines last year for welfare fraud when the government revealed that thousands of dead Greeks were still receiving pensions . Data in June showed that 4,500 deceased civil servants continued to receive pension payments, costing the taxpayer $20.5 million a year. Pressured by international lenders, the country has been forced to make sweeping reforms of its pension system. Now, fewer than 10 percent of Greeks can retire before 65. In 2010, some Greeks could retire as early as 40 years of age on a reduced pension.
Italy. Photo: Giorgio Cosulich | Getty Images
4. Italy
Old/young ratio: 1.47:1
65 years & over: 20.3%
0-14 years: 13.8%
People over the age of 60 will make up a whopping 40 percent of Italy's population by 2040 compared to over 25 percent in 2007, according the GAP Index.
The country has seen its elderly population remain at 20 percent from 2005 to 2010, while the younger population of people aged 0 to 14 years hasn't grown since 1999, remaining at 14 percent. Italy's public spending on pensions is the highest in the EU, at over 16 percent of GDP compared to an average of 11 percent for the bloc.
Once considered one of the most generous pension systems in Europe, Italy's government took a hatchet to the current scheme by announcing a series of austerity measures to reform the welfare system in December . The country has one of the lowest employment rates in the region, in part because people retire long before the European average. Only 37.4 percent of Italians aged 55 to 64 still work, compared to an EU average of 47.5 percent. The new measures would see the minimum pension age for both men and women raised in stages to 66 by 2018 with incentives to keep workers employed until 70.
Germany. Photo: Thomas Grass | Getty Images
3. Germany
Old/young ratio: 1.54:1
65 years & over: 20.6%
0-14 years: 13.3%
Germany is the most populous European country and the second-biggest economy to make the list of the world's oldest populations.
The country has seen its 65 and over population increase from 19 percent in 2006 to 20 percent in 2010, while the young generation aged 0 to 14 has declined from 14 percent to 13 percent in the same period, according to the World Bank. The percentage of people aged 15 to 64 has gone down to 66 percent in 2010, compared to 69 percent two decades ago, in part explaining the labor shortage the country faces in some sectors. Eurostat predicts there will be less than two people of working age for every retired person in Germany by 2040.
While the European economic power maintains a healthy economy for now, having among the worst demographic stats in the world could lead to rising public spending and debt in years to come. Germany has nearly 2.3 million more women aged 65 and over compared to men. Despite women living longer, they also typically have smaller pension savings than men at retirement. On the whole, nearly 60 percent of Germans between the ages of 55 and 64 work, compared to just 40.7 percent of Greeks, according to EU statistics.
Japan. Photo: Ryouchin | Getty Images
2. Japan
Old/young ratio: 1.74:1
65 years & over: 22.9%
0-14 years: 13.1%
Japan is the largest economy to make the list of the world's oldest populations. It is also the only country outside of Europe in the rankings.
With the highest life expectancy in the world at 86, people aged 60 and over will account for over 43 percent of Japan's population by 2040, according to the GAP Index. Currently, one in four people are over the age of 65. On the other end, its population of people aged 15 to 64 fell four percentage points in the 10-year period from 2000 to 2010, while people aged up to 14 years fell two percentage points in the same period. Last year, the country made headlines when data showed that its population grew at its slowest pace since 1920 in the five years to 2010.
Slowing population growth indicates that Japan will find it more difficult to spread its debt burden and the rising costs of an aging society, among the working population. Japan is already the most indebted industrial nation with a public debt that is double its $5 trillion economy. Lonely elderly people have also become a growing social problem in the country. In 2010, 4.6 million elderly lived alone in Japan. The number of seniors that died at home alone increased by 61 percent between 2003 and 2010, according to official figures. In August, the government introduced measures for postmen to check up on people over 65 once a month by handing them seasonal greeting cards.
Monaco. Photo: Valery Hache | AFP | Getty Images
1. Monaco
Old/young ratio: 2.18:1
65 years & over: 26.9%
0-14 years: 2.18%
Monaco, one of the world's most densely populated countries, is home to the oldest population. It leads eight other European countries in the top 10 list. But the country is also a bit of a statistical anomaly because its status as a tax haven makes it a big draw for the wealthy and the retired rich.
With an estimated population of 30,539, the country saw its population decline in 2011 by 0.12 percent, according the to CIA Factbook. Only around 8,000 people are citizens of the city-state. The proportion of Monaco's population aged 65 and over is 26.9 percent, the highest in Western Europe, where the average is 16.5 percent, according to a 2011 study by research firm Euromonitor.
The median age of Monaco's population is 49.4 years, according to the CIA Factbook. With its older demographic, Monaco spent just 1.2 percent of its GDP in 2009 on education, according to the World Bank. In an effort to attract young professionals and entrepreneurs to boost its economy, Prince Albert launched a new consular
service to attract British citizens into the country in 2007.
http://www.cnbc.com/id/46010334?slide=2
http://sg.finance.yahoo.com/news/countries-aging-populations-070947847.html
Subscribe to:
Posts (Atom)